World Cup semi-final preview: New Zealand v Argentina, Friday, Stade de France, 8pm Irish time (Live on RTÉ 2 and ITV)
For Irish players and coaches especially, this first Rugby World Cup semi-final will be a tough watch, as it will invariably prompt thoughts of what might have been.
Watching Sam Cane in particular drag his body gingerly from the pitch, and to and from the post-match press conference after being the game’s leading tackler, it will be interesting to see how much their quarter-final win will have taken out of them.
The statistics credited Cane with 21 tackles of his team’s 229 in a 75-minute shift which some considered to be his best, while according to their defence coach Scott McLeod, the All Blacks made 276 tackles, of which 100 were in the final quarter.
Motivated by a mixture of revenge, increased respect for Ireland and fear of going home, the All Blacks produced possibly their best display in the four years Ian Foster had been head coach.
So this raises the question as to whether the All Blacks can scale such heights of energy and intensity again a week later.
Of course, in all probability, they may not have to against an Argentinian side which lost 27-10 to 14-man England in their opening game, before advancing to this juncture with unexceptional wins over Samoa (19-10|), Chile (59-5), Japan (39-27) and in last week’s quarter-final against Wales (29-17).
The last World Cup was littered with examples of how difficult it is to back up big, emotionally-charged performances a week later.
England played their final in the semi-finals against New Zealand before losing to South Africa week later while, more pertinently, the All Blacks themselves were imperious in beating Ireland 46-14 in the quarter-finals before losing 19-7 to England a week later.
Another equally relevant example came in August last year in the Rugby Championship, when the All Blacks beat South Africa 35-23 in a Johannesburg classic which is widely believed to have saved Foster his job and led to the NZRU backing him until this World Cup. But a week later, New Zealand suffered a first ever home defeat by Argentina when losing 25-18 in Christchurch.
Admittedly, the All Blacks have won both subsequent meetings, by 53-3 in Hamilton a week later, and 41-12 in Mendoza last July, when they lost the penalty count 12-9 and had a yellow card with Angus Gardner, referee for this semi-final, in charge,
Like most countries, Los Pumas have a poor record against the All Blacks, with two wins and a draw in 36 meetings. This includes three previous World Cup clashes, all of which New Zealand have won; a 46-15 pool win in Wellington in 1987, a 33-10 victory in the 2011 quarter-finals in Eden Park and a 26-16 win in a 2015 pool opener at Wembley.
This semi-final pits Michael Cheika against his successor as Leinster coach, Joe Schmidt and, as highlighted by another former Leinsterman, Felipe Contepomi, playing them every year since 2012 in the Rugby Championship has removed some of the All Blacks’ mystique in Argentinian eyes.
“Obviously the competition makes it special, it’s a World Cup. We play them twice a year every year in the Rugby Championship. For me, that is very important because it gives us the chance to compete against the best every year and that helps us a lot to develop so that when we come to games like tomorrow’s we are better prepared, we know what’s coming.
“It’s a special occasion, not just because it’s the All Blacks – it would be the same if it were Ireland. We will embrace the occasion, give it our best and that is what we are looking for.”
In that regard, backing up their breakthrough win during lockdown in Sydney in 2020 with last year’s victory in Christchurch seems important, although the Pumas’ assistant coach countered: “I don’t know what has been brought up in the New Zealand camp. That is the past. Once you beat them once perhaps you humanise them more. But the game starts 0-0.
“Everyone says they will go through to the final but we are here to play our best rugby. We have a plan. It doesn’t count beating them in Christchurch,” said Contepomi, whose side are 14/1 and 18-point underdogs in the match and handicap betting for this semi-final.
Both teams have tweaked their side, with the All Blacks recalling left-winger Mark Tele’a after his breach of protocol saw him left out against Ireland last Saturday.
Sam Whitelock’s reward for his impact off the bench, including that match-sealing turnover penalty in the game’s last play, is a return to the starting line-up as Brodie Retallick is named on the bench. It will be Whitelock’s fourth World Cup semi-final as he seeks to become the first player to play in three finals.
Argentina were slow out of the blocks against Wales, and could have been 20-0 down in the first quarter, before outlasting Warren Gatland’s side.
Cheika has, not surprisingly, reverted to Gonzalo Bertranou as their starting 9, with Tomas Cubelli dropping out of the match-day 23 altogether as Lautaro Bazan Velez is the preferred impact scrumhalf off the bench.
Although Juan Cruz Mallia has had a good World Cup in successfully making the transition from centre in the last two years, despite some nice moments, Santiago Carreras still looks like a converted fullback at 10.
The Pumas have dangerous outside backs, witness Mateo Carreras’s hat-trick in their pool finale against Japan, but they didn’t create much against Wales, their two tries coming from close-range, pick-and-goes and an intercept try by Nicolas Sanchez – now their “finishing” outhalf.
New Zealand are competing in their ninth semi-final, having won four of the previous eight, while Argentina have lost both of their previous semi-finals in 2007 and 2015.
While they may not be obliged to scale the heights of last week, then All Blacks ought to have the better set-piece (they’ve lost one of 51 lineouts at this World Cup), greater discipline and the sharper clinical edge from red zone entries to reach their fifth final.
New Zealand: Beauden Barrett; Will Jordan, Rieko Ioane, Jordie Barrett, Mark Tele’a; Richie Mo’unga, Aaron Smith; Ethan de Groot, Codie Taylor, Tyrel Lomax, Sam Whitelock, Scott Barrett, Shannon Frizell, Sam Cane (capt), Ardie Savea. Replacements: Samisoni Taukei’aho, Tamaiti Williams, Fletcher Newell, Brodie Retallick, Dalton Papali’i, Finlay Christie, Damian McKenzie, Anton Lienert-Brown.
Argentina: Juan Cruz Mallia; Emiliano Boffelli, Lucio Cinti, Santiago Chocobares, Mateo Carreras; Santiago Carreras, Gonzalo Bertranou; Thomas Gallo, Julián Montoya (capt), Francisco Gómez Kodela, Guido Petti, Tomas Lavanini, Juan Martin Gonzalez, Marcos Kremer, Facundo Isa. Replacements: Agustín Creevy, Joel Sclavi, Eduardo Bello, Matias Alemanno, Rodrigo Bruni, Lautaro Bazan Velez, Nicolas Sanchez, Matías Moroni.
Referee: Angus Gardner (Australia).
Forecast: New Zealand to win by 15-20.
