Ireland v Scotland: Form and history point to Andy Farrell’s side but Scots won’t roll over

Rugby World Cup, Pool B: Ireland v Scotland, Saturday, Stade de France, 8pm Irish time (Live on Virgin Media and ITV)

And so the ultimate in Irish banana skins looms into view. It’s hard to think of a bigger Celtic derby between the two countries.

There’s never been so much on the line for both teams as, unlike in the previous two World Cup meetings, one of these two will almost certainly be packing their bags on Sunday.

Such a stark reality certainly crystallises things. It seems almost unthinkable, unfathomable even, that the best Irish side at a World Cup, who retained their world number one ranking by recording a 16th successive win in a titanic tussle against the reigning champions, could be knocked out by Scotland.

Yet Gregor Townsend’s side are dangerous and, lest we forget, are ranked fifth in the world.

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By contrast, the Pool D shoot-out between Argentina and Japan is ninth versus 12th. In Saint Etienne against a full-strength France, Les Bleus struggled to contain the Scots for half an hour in the second half.

With their abrasive, competitive pack, the inventiveness of Finn Russell, their most potent midfield combination in a long time and a dangerous back three going forward, they deserve respect.

The Scots are in the last chance saloon and will come out swinging. Had this shoot-out come a week after Ireland’s epic with the Boks, it might have been set up even more nicely for them. But that two-week break should benefit Ireland mentally as much as physically.

This side’s focus tends not to wander anyway. The drivers – Andy Farrell, Johnny Sexton and Paul O’Connell – wouldn’t allow it, and the prospect of the hugely influential Peter O’Mahony becoming Ireland’s 10th centurion will only accentuate that short-term focus.

Besides, it allowed Scotland ample time to talk themselves up as they do.

“We’re not going to die wondering, we’ve got to fire every bullet in our gun,” vowed Jamie Ritchie, while Blair Kinghorn asserted: “They have been on a good run of form recently, but we’ll end that on Saturday.”

That will all have been noted in the Irish camp. Fuelled by provincial rivalries and on-field sledging (as after Scotland’s opening try at Murrayfield in March), Jean Kleyn noted the “animosity” between the two sides from the Springboks’ camp this week.

O’Mahony and Ritchie squaring up seems a safe bet. Most likely, distractions would suit the Scots best because, as Ireland have proved in winning the last eight meetings by an average margin of 14.5 points, Farrell’s men are simply the better all-round side.

There’s been the added distractions of the various permutations. Ireland need a win, draw or two losing bonus points to guarantee progress as pool winners. A losing bonus point would also be enough, provided Scotland didn’t score four tries and win by six points or more. If Ireland don’t pick up at least a bonus point, ie lose by more than seven, they will be out.

For sure, Scotland are potent and with his fiendishly disguised short or long-range passing – like a footballer who can strike powerfully off a short back lift – Russell will have his moments. Scotland last failed to score a try in November 2020.

But the idea of Scotland scoring four tries seems particularly fanciful. For while Ireland score freely through their nuanced phased attack, they take even more pride in their defence.

Since the New Zealand tour – or their last 14 wins – Ireland have never conceded more than two tries in a game, and that has only happened four times, against South Africa, Fiji and Italy twice.

Farrell has also again shown his ruthless streak by promoting Iain Henderson above the previously indispensable James Ryan (who’ll probably respond with a big half-hour off the bench), along with Dan Sheehan.

Ireland have scored 11 of their 21 tries off lineouts and, if this fires smoothly, they have more in them here. With the stronger tight five, bigger ball carriers, given a strong start, it would be no surprise to see Ireland’s principle carriers, notably Caelan Doris and Bundee Aki, have big games again.

Ireland are likely to test this Scottish back three in the air, a tactic which helped the Boks establish a foothold in their opening 18-3 pool win.

There also remains the suspicion that Scotland don’t react well when things go against them and, as against the Boks, play too much through Russell, whom Leinster and Ireland have generally corralled. By contrast, Sexton hasn’t been on a losing side, in 12 years and 24 games, against a Scottish side.

What’s more, it’s liable to be another ‘home’ game, with estimates of 50,000 Irish fans equalling or even surpassing the numbers and noise of a fortnight ago here.

“No one travels like the Irish, I’d say that’s a fact,” said James Lowe after the captain’s run.

“We played in Bordeaux and Nantes and then at this incredible arena the other week – it’s something you can’t really describe or put into words, the anthems, Fields of Athenry, Zombie at the end. It’s amazing, honestly. People are saying 60,000 Irish are travelling over this weekend and their presence is definitely felt.”

All the usual caveats apply, such as an early red card (there have been none in the 146-year history of fixtures between the two countries), some poor officiating or a quickfire Scottish start.

There has been an almost suspiciously smooth route to this point, with nothing like the adversity Farrell embraced during the Grand Slam run, notably when beating Scotland 22-7 last March.

Yet Ireland are 12/13-point favourites and, on a line through the Springboks, it could be 21 points. More than anything, you just sense that Ireland are primed for a very big performance.

IRELAND: Hugo Keenan (Leinster); Mack Hansen (Connacht), Garry Ringrose (Leinster), Bundee Aki (Connacht), James Lowe (Leinster); Jonathan Sexton (Leinster)(capt), Jamison Gibson-Park (Leinster); Andrew Porter (Leinster), Dan Sheehan (Leinster), Tadhg Furlong (Leinster); Tadhg Beirne (Munster), Iain Henderson (Ulster); Peter O’Mahony (Munster), Josh van der Flier (Leinster), Caelan Doris (Leinster).

Replacements: Ronan Kelleher (Leinster), Dave Kilcoyne (Munster), Finlay Bealham (Connacht), James Ryan (Leinster), Jack Conan (Leinster), Conor Murray (Munster), Jack Crowley (Munster), Stuart McCloskey (Ulster).

SCOTLAND: Blair Kinghorn; Darcy Graham, Huw Jones, Sione Tuipulotu, Duhan van der Merwe; Finn Russell, Ali Price; Pierre Schoeman, George Turner, Zander Fagerson; Richie Gray, Grant Gilchrist; Jamie Ritchie, Rory Darge, Jack Dempsey.

Replacements: Ewan Ashman, Rory Sutherland, WP Nel, Scott Cummings, Matt Fagerson, Luke Crosbie, George Horne, Ollie Smith.

Forecast: Ireland by 15-20.