While it is not strictly speaking a winner-takes-all shoot-out in that Ireland have a little more elbow room than Scotland, to all intents and purposes Saturday night’s Parisian Celtic derby is a knock-out tie dressed up as a Pool B finale.
Ireland remain strong favourites and better placed to progress but if, say, Scotland won by more than seven points and denied Ireland a try-scoring bonus point, Andy Farrell’s side would go out of the World Cup before the actual knock-out stages.
In other words, the likelihood is that one of these sides will be travelling home on Sunday,
“Yeah, there is probably a sense of jeopardy about it if you lose,” agreed Tadhg Furlong. “Yeah, 100 per cent.”
But rather than succumb to a sense of anxiety that might affect Ireland’s performance, the Irish and Lions tighthead believes he and his team must embrace the moment.
“You just try to put your best foot forward. You know it’s there, if you try to play well and whatever happens, happens after that. It’s not being afraid of it, it’s about embracing it and getting on with it.”
If nothing else, the high stakes should focus the mind.
“I think it brings the best out of rugby players,” says Furlong of weeks like this. It shows your mentality, it shows what you are about, it shows what the group is about. It shows a lot.
“The proof is always in the pudding in terms of how the match goes, and how you deal with the pressure. It’s just about trying to get on.
“I think as a group, we are relatively experienced, and we have a good understanding of how we work and how the team works and how to get the most out of the team in these big games.
“We have played in big games before. So, now it’s just about trying to get your prep right and try to get your best performance out there.”
This team have already exceeded the record Irish sequence of 12 wins in a row that was achieved in 2018, with the victory over South Africa extending the current run to 16. But one of the secrets to doing this has been not to let it weigh on their minds.
“We don’t set out to protect a winning run, or you’re not afraid of losing. It’s not something we touch on at all. It’s just about starting each week at zero, and respecting the opposition, the prep we try to put into games to get ourselves right for the weekend. After that it’s up to the players on the pitch to perform, execute and try to play as good rugby as we can.”
Although Ireland have won the last eight meetings between the two countries, Furlong isn’t brandishing platitudes when he talks of his respect for this Scottish side. No wonder either. They are, after all, ranked fifth in the world.
“We don’t look into that a massive amount,” he says of Ireland’s winning run against Scotland. “Of course you look at the last game; you probably don’t look at the seven before that. Rugby is ever changing and evolving.
“I think they’re flying at the minute. I was really impressed with their warm-up games, against France,” he added in reference to Scotland’s 14-man, 25-21 comeback win at home, and the even more impressive recovery from a 27-10 deficit to lose 30-27 in Saint Etienne a week later against a full-strength French selection.
“And I have been really impressed with how they’ve performed in the tournament so far. I would imagine they’re disappointed with their South Africa performance. They’ve come on a lot since the Six Nations, and they had a really good Six Nations. I thought they were flying then as well. It’s going to be a huge challenge for us this weekend.”
Various niggles restricted Furlong to 35 matches since the Lions tour to South Africa in the summer of 2021. But after a stint off the bench in Ireland’s opening World Cup warm-up game and a start against England, he comes into this game with a good body of work behind him. He has been an ever-present at tighthead in all three pool games.
“I’m only 30, you know,” Furlong reminded us after the squad’s last session at their base in the Complexe Sportif de la Chambrerie on yet another glorious sunny day in Tours.
“In terms of training load and all the GPS craic and all that, we’ve always been building up through. I haven’t – touch wood – had a setback or a niggle or anything like that. The body is feeling really good at the minute.”
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The Leinster squad are in Paris this weekend for a preseason friendly against Castres. Cian Healy has posted a video of him in training earlier this week, which demonstrated that, yet again, he returned ahead of schedule from injury, in this case the torn calf sustained against Samoa that ruled him out of Ireland’s 33-man squad.
Ireland’s game against Scotland comes on Healy’s 36th birthday, so a win could inflate hope of him making a fourth World Cup yet.
“You’re not surprised when you see ‘Church’ doing stuff like that,” said Furlong. “When he sets his mind to something, especially getting back to injury or rehab, he’ll do everything that’s possible.
“He is a bit of a freak to be fair – a physical freak – and the way he can shave time off rehab and returning to play is amazing.”
