Ireland v Italy: Victory over Azzurri will require concentration and commitment from Farrell’s men

World Cup warm-up: Ireland v Italy,

Aviva Stadium, Saturday, 8pm,

(Live on RTÉ 2 and Amazon Prime)

They haven’t always been a portent of things to come necessarily, but Ireland tend not to do Rugby World Cup warm-ups especially well. In 17 preparatory Tests before World Cups, they’ve won 10 and lost seven, and there have also been defeats by Namibia and Munster, as well as losses to Scotland and that ominous thrashing by England four years ago. At best Ireland’s phoney war form can be described as ho-hum.

Back in 2011, before Ireland embarked upon a testing build-up against Scotland (away), France (away and at home) and England (home) someone wrote that Declan Kidney’s side would happily settle for four warm-up defeats in exchange for a quartet of World Cup pool wins in New Zealand.

And so it came to pass, Ireland topping their group with wins over the USA, Australia, Russia and Italy, so ensuring that no one remembered or in any case cared a hoot that Ireland lost those four warm-up games.

One senses that this team would not be remotely inclined to settle for three warm-up defeats, but rather maintain the momentum generated by a 10-game winning sequence incorporating a series win in New Zealand, victories over South Africa and Australia, and a Grand Slam by winning all three games.

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Certainly, that applies this evening, given Ireland have won the last 13 meetings with Italy and are looking to extend the longest Irish winning run at home of 14 Tests.

Italy have been common visitors before World Cups, this being the fourth time in the last six World Cup cycles — and the exceptions were due to the two countries being drawn in the same pool in both 2011 and 2015.

As in those two contests, Ireland have beaten Italy on each of their previous pre-World Cup excursions, beginning with a 61-6 win in Thomond Park in 2003 (when Denis Hickie scored four tries) which remains a record-winning margin in fixtures between the two countries.

However, when they met again in Ravenhill in August 2007 (the first international in Belfast for 53 years) Ireland were indebted to a dubious try in the final play of the game by Ronan O’Gara for a 23-20 win which was eventually awarded by TMO Derek Bevan.

The Italians were furious, and scrumhalf Alessandro Troncon had to be restrained by team-mates as he sought to confront referee Nigel Owens at the final whistle. Ireland’s flat performance sure served as a foreboding warning of what was to come from an overtrained, undercooked team in that ensuing World Cup in France.

In another reminder of the vagaries of these games, four years ago in the opening warm-up game against Italy, Joey Carbery suffered the ankle injury which restricted his impact at the World Cup to three cameos off the bench and put back his Test career by two years. Carbery’s performance apart, that was also an eminently forgettable Irish performance.

While warm-up games are ultimately footnotes in history, it’s also true that those who ignore the lessons of history are apt to repeat them. Hence, not only will Ireland be disappointed with anything less than a win, Andy Farrell has made it clear he wants his team to evolve further rather than stand still.

Farrell is not looking for strides in any specific area, he said, “other than everything”, adding: “It has to be, doesn’t it? We have to keep evolving as a team.

“I’m not saying we’re tinkering with things all the time but we have to keep evolving. And I know that this is a broken record but it’s the truth: no part of our game is anywhere near good enough.

“Every single area of our game isn’t where it could be, isn’t where it needs to be. Having some good pictures at the end of this game to take forward into the next one, is going to be important.”

The Irish head coach also recalled how a much-changed team laboured to beat Georgia here in the Autumn Nations Cup almost three years ago, and struggled a tad before pulling clear thanks to a Mack Hansen try by 34-20.

While Kieran Crowley has named England-born debutants Paolo Odogwu and Dino Lamb in their starting XV, this still looks a stronger Italian side than the one which lost 25-13 in Murrayfield last week, with Paolo Garbisi back at outhalf and Saracens prop Marco Riccioni recalled and some heavy hitters on the bench.

Yet despite Farrell heavily juggling his resources, there is some serious horse power in the secondrow with Joe McCarthy packing down beside Iain Henderson, and ditto a backrow which accommodates a trio of potent ball-carriers in Ryan Baird, Caelan Doris and Jack Conan.

The Craig Casey-Jack Crowley partnership will be fascinating, and ought to be helped by such an experienced three-quarter line, while there’s also some grizzled operators on the bench in Cian Healy, Tadgh Furlong and Tadgh Beirne, as well as three debutants.

While it was an undeniable honour for Henderson to captain Ireland once before, namely in the 2021 Six Nations at home to France, that was behind closed doors and Ireland lost. However, he’s also respectful of probably the most inventive Italian team ever.

“Italy aren’t the same team you might have played 10 years ago. A handful of the provincial sides would know that playing Treviso.

“There’s been a huge amount of work and effort put into their rugby side of things. Obviously coming off the bench tomorrow, [Michele] Lamaro is a huge, big leader for them. He’s someone we’re going to have to be wary of adding energy and emotion towards the end of the game.

“I think [Sebastian] Negri is starting, and he’s another one who, it seems to be that when people around him start going well, he goes bigger and better.

“We know they have threats all the way around their team. [Federico] Ruzza is another huge lineout leader for them, one definitely that we as second rows will be keeping a close eye on.

“Italy are a dangerous team, there’s no doubt about it. They have threats throughout their pack in terms of carrying. They have threats throughout the whole backline in terms of their attacking ability.

“We’ve got to make sure we’re not only on top of our game to start with, we need to make sure we’re holding out for the full 80 minutes, because I think it was one of the last games we played, it was 20 points to 24 coming into 60-odd minutes,” added the Irish captain, accurately last recalling season’s meeting in Rome.

“They hang in there with you.”

IRELAND (v Italy): Jimmy O’Brien (Leinster); Keith Earls (Munster), Robbie Henshaw (Leinster), Stuart McCloskey (Ulster), Jacob Stockdale (Ulster); Jack Crowley (Munster), Craig Casey (Munster); Dave Kilcoyne (Munster), Rob Herring (Ulster), Tom O’Toole (Ulster); Iain Henderson (Ulster, capt), Joe McCarthy (Leinster); Ryan Baird (Leinster), Caelan Doris (Leinster), Jack Conan (Leinster).

Replacements: Tom Stewart (Ulster), Cian Healy (Leinster), Tadhg Furlong (Leinster), Tadhg Beirne (Munster), Cian Prendergast (Connacht), Caolin Blade (Connacht), Ciarán Frawley (Leinster), Calvin Nash (Munster).

ITALY: Italy: Tommaso Allan (Perpignan); Paolo Odogwu (Benetton), Juan Ignacio Brez (Benetton), Tommaso Menoncello (Benetton), Montanna Ioane (Lyon); Paolo Garbisi (Montpellier), Stephen Varney (Gloucester); Danilo Fischetti (Zebre), Giacomo Nicotera (Benetton), Marco Riccioni (Saracens); Dino Lamb (Harlequins), Federico Ruzza (Benetton) (capt); Sebastian Negri (Benetton), Manuel Zuliani (Benetton), Toa Halafihi (Benetton).

Replacements: Luca Bigi (Zebre), Paolo Buonfiglio (Zebre), Simone Ferrari (Benetton), Niccolo Cannone (Benetton), Michele Lamaro (Benetton), Lorenzo Cannone (Benetton), Alessandro Fusco (Zebre), Lorenzo Pani (Zebre).

Referee: Mathieu Raynal (FFR). Assistant Referees: Pierre Brousset (FFR), Luc Ramos (FFR). TMO: Eric Gauzins (FFR), TMO Bunker: Stuart Terheege (RFU)

Overall head-to-head: Played 35, Ireland 34 wins, Italy 4 wins.

Betting (Paddy Power): 1-40 Ireland, 50-1 Draw, 18-1 Italy. Handicap odds (Italy +22pts): 10-11 Ireland, 22-1 Draw, 10-11 Italy.

Forecast: Ireland to win.