Scotland v Ireland: Sexton and Russell provide a compelling subplot to Murrayfield showdown

And so they meet again.

In the overall narrative of a match that will go some way toward deciding the destiny of the 2023 Six Nations, there are a host of compelling subplots.

There’s the Celtic rivalry fostered by the regularity of provincial and international meetings. There’s the memory of the Lions – with Gregor Townsend as backs’ coach – and the inclusion of four Scottish to three Irish backs in the squad.

Chris Harris was named ahead of Garry Ringrose, albeit Robbie Henshaw and, more surprisingly, Bundee Aki were picked, and Duhan van der Merwe above any Irish outside back. Ali Price started two of the three Tests ahead of Conor Murray.

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Most controversially of all, Johnny Sexton was omitted whereas Finn Russell was one of three outhalves chosen along with Owen Farrell and Dan Biggar, on the premise that Sexton wouldn’t be up to playing three Tests in successive weeks. A year later against the All Blacks in New Zealand he gave the lie to that notion.

Ironically, the Lions management were unlucky that Russell suffered an Achilles tendon injury on tour, before his transformative effect on the third Test. In any event, Warren Gatland and Townsend did Irish rugby a favour. They afforded Sexton a summer respite and the burning sense of injustice over his exclusion has helped fuel his desire ever since.

The outcome of tomorrow’s duel won’t definitively prove anything with regard to a Lions’ selection of almost two years ago although, as it’s transpired, both players have had excellent campaigns whereas Biggar and Farrell have struggled under new coaching tickets with teams in transition.

Russell and Sexton were to have opposed each other in this season’s Champions Cup pool stages but Sexton was sidelined for both of Leinster’s games against Racing.

Despite Russell’s bag of tricks, Ross Byrne more than capably steered Leinster home as he does, although this underlines that Sexton’s superior CV and head-to-head record are, of course, in the context of a team sport. And Sexton has invariably played in the better team.

Yet Sexton is much, much more of a proven winner. Whereas Russell has won one Pro12 title, Sexton has won six of those in their various iterations, as well as four Champions Cups, a European Challenge Cup, a Grand Slam and two more Six Nations titles. Plus he was the starting outhalf in a Test series win and Test series draw with the Lions.

Nor does Russell have a particularly good record against Ireland or Irish sides generally. In six Tests against Ireland, Russell has been on the winning side just once, when Scotland won 22-17 at Murrayfield in their last win over Ireland in 2017 when Paddy Jackson was at outhalf.

In five games against Ireland opposing Sexton, the latter has won them all. Curiously, they have only ever met once below international level, back in October 2017 in the Champions Cup, when Sexton was in imperious form with a 17-point man-of-the-match display in Leinster’s 34-18 bonus-point win over Glasgow at Scotstoun.

Their paths never crossed otherwise in a Leinster-Glasgow game, nor when either man was in Racing 92, Sexton having spent two seasons there in 2013-14 and 14-15, while Russell is completing a fifth and last season with the Parisians before moving to Bath, either side of Dan Carter’s time there. Racing have already been eliminated in the pool stages of the Champions Cup this season.

While this head-to-head within the bigger picture is a compelling contest, Russell and Sexton are not quite the contrasting outhalves that they’re perhaps made out to be.

Yes, Russell plays with a smile on his face (which in rugby’s po-faced world seems to upset an awful lot of people, doesn’t it?) and while Johnny doesn’t always play with a scowl either, eh, he doesn’t always appear to be enjoying himself as much.

Yet Scotland and Ireland are both playing, along with Italy, the most fearless, attacking brand of rugby in this year’s championship and this is in large part because of the two playmakers.

“They see the game so well, both of them,” says Brian O’Driscoll. “They can both pull the pass at the last second, brilliantly. I think they’re on a par in that.

“I think Johnny does structure within the capability of picking the pass a little bit better than Finn. And I think that obviously suits this game plan very well. Finn has such confidence in his own belief whereas Johnny wants to facilitate others in going through.

“I’m wondering do sides let Johnny run a little bit more. Towards the end of Rog’s [Ronan O’Gara] career players let him run at them. I’m not comparing Johnny and Rog; they’re apples and pears. But is that what you do? Then maybe you do that at your peril as well. He’s not got the biggest wheels in the world but Finn’s running game is better than Johnny’s.

“There’s not much between them but I’d prefer to have Johnny in my team because I know what he does and what he’s delivered. But I’d love to play with Finn too. It would be very exciting. Very exciting. Talk about heads-up rugby. Play what you see. That would be a lot of fun. You’d pull your heart out sometimes but you’d have a lot of fun.

“But I think Johnny has the overall package in his control of a game but also the vision. He just tops it.”

Spoken like a back, perhaps, and an outside centre at that, as well as former team-mate, but you’d venture that most forwards would rather have Sexton direct them around the pitch.

With Russell there is a higher risk-higher reward approach, witness the intercept try by Thomas Ramos in the Stade de France a fortnight ago, or the intercept try Russell coughed up in Racing’s 31-27 loss to Exeter in the 2020 Champions Cup final amid many moments of brilliance.

Russell did respond superbly in the second half against France, scoring a try in a game reduced to 14-a-side, which perhaps suited him above all. Impressively though, like a committed gambler, he never seems to let such events upset him or affect him.

It has to be said too that Russell is having a glorious Six Nations campaign, perhaps his best ever, so far. He has the most try assists (four). He has made the most carries of any player (45), which is remarkable for an outhalf and testimony to the threat of his running game and how he backs himself, if also perhaps how much more off-the-cuff and instinctive his game is compared to Sexton’s greater control.

Only four players have more metres than Russell (275) and he has made the most offloads (six). The one-handed offload out of the back of his hand for Kyle Steyn’s first try against Wales was sumptuous, as was Russell’s crosskick for his second and his floated pass for Zander Fagerson’s try, so completing a hat-trick of try assists in one game – the first Scottish player ever to do so.

Russell now has 10 try assists since the beginning of 2022, as well as a further nine line-break assists, the most of any Tier One player in either category.

The pace and length of Russell’s passing off both hands has been a delight, and is the main reason why, of all teams in the Six Nations this year, Scotland have opted to move it wide most often (14 per cent).

He can also do so with his often pinpoint kick-passing game. Russell attempted seven cross-field kicks in this championship, five more than anyone else, with five of those being successfully retained and two leading directly to tries. Russell’s brilliant 50/22 against Wales was also a pivotal moment.

Sexton’s influence is as profound as ever. He’s orchestrating a more layered picture. He has an array of team-mates who can step in as first receiver – forwards as much as backs.

Ironically, given the old lament about Sexton in this Irish team, perhaps Scotland have become even more Russell-dependent in that almost everything seems to go through him.

As Joey Carbery has done in the past, Byrne ably filled Sexton’s shoes in Rome, having also steered the team home in Cardiff and at home to France.

Of course though, Sexton is a class above, while even Townsend appears to have come to the conclusion, despite evident misgivings, that in Russell lies Scotland’s best hope.

As was reaffirmed last November when Blair Kinghorn and Adam Hastings started in the defeat by Australia and win over Fiji, there is a greater degree of risk and reward with Russell pulling the strings, but Scotland have an altogether higher ceiling with him as playmaker.

If this Scottish team are to win their first title since 1999, or even dream of being contenders to win a World Cup, they can probably only do so with Russell at the helm.

For sure, if Ireland are to win a World Cup, then most likely Sexton will need to stay fit too. But then, we’ve known that for a long time, and this is based on an altogether greater body of work without anything like the same risks.

This subplot may or may not go some way to deciding the outcome of Sunday’s match. But, put another way, while you might rather watch Russell because he’s more inclined to roll the dice on the pitch, there’s no doubt who you’d rather have your money on.

Russell v Sexton head-to-head

2014-15: Six Nations (Murrayfield) – Scotland 10 Ireland 40.

2017-18: Champions Cup (Scotstoun) – Glasgow 18 Leinster 34.

2017-18: Six Nations (Aviva Stadium) – Ireland 28 Scotland 8.

2018-19: Six Nations (Murrayfield) – Scotland 13 Ireland 22.

2019-20: World Cup (Yokohama) – Ireland 27 Scotland 3.

2020-21: Six Nations (Murrayfield) – Scotland 24 Ireland 27.