Champions Cup: Munster v Northampton, Thomond Park, Saturday, 3.15pm – Live on RTÉ 2 and BT Sport
If it’s January, it must be Munster in what is effectively a must-win clash against English opposition at a febrile Thomond Park. Despite that, Graham Rowntree and his think tank have broken with tradition by placing their trust in inexperienced talent rather than proven Euro warriors.
Certainly, it’s hard to imagine the previous regime would have rolled the dice to such an extent in omitting the combined experience of Conor Murray and Keith Earls especially, as well as Stephen Archer.
The selection of Paddy Patterson as back-up to Craig Casey is a clear signal that Munster want to play with a very high tempo for the entire 80 minutes. Patterson has impressed with his speed over the ground, as much to the base of the breakdown as in scoring sharply taken tries in each of Munster’s last two outings against Ulster and the Lions.
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The forecast is for a blustery day with some heavy showers about, and nothing about this fixture or Northampton’s selection suggests this is a foregone conclusion.
Although last month’s match was their first meeting in over a decade, these two have plenty of history, dating back to Northampton’s 9-8 win in the 2000 final on a foreboding day at Twickenham.
Northampton also won the opening pool game in the 2009-10 campaign, since when Munster have won the subsequent five clashes, beginning with a revenge 12-9 pool win and a quarter-final victory at Thomond Park in that same season, as well as a memorable and highly contrasting double in 2011-12.
Ronan O’Gara’s drop goal after an epic 41-phase attack sealed a 23-21 win in the group opener at Thomond Park before Munster sealed qualification with a rollercoaster 51-36 in Milton Keyes which featured a Simon Zebo hat-trick.
Whereas all three of those Thomond Park clashes were enacted in front of full houses, this will not be a full house. But with ticket sales at a healthy 22,000 despite the game being live on terrestrial television, as in the first round Munster are set to host the biggest crowd of the weekend.
There is also some residual ill-feeling from the last meeting, with that all-in brawl which was so poorly adjudicated upon by the officials and somehow didn’t lead to any citings.
Fears or hopes, depending on one’s viewpoint, that Northampton might send over a weakened side have proved unfounded. The Saints may sit on zero points and host La Rochelle next weekend, but they too have described their mission to Limerick as “do-or-die”.
Hence, in what seems like a statement of intent, they have made four changes from last week’s 35-12 loss away to Exeter, with Courtney Lawes, Fin Smith, David Ribbans and Rory Hutchinson all returning to the starting line-up.
Lawes was due to start a month ago before being withdrawn on the day of the match but is named again for what would be just his second outing of the season and first since September.
Northampton had a week’s respite after their defeat by Munster, following which they beat Harlequins 46-17 at home, and their last two performances rather typify what has been a wildly inconsistent season.
The one recurring theme has been the contrast between their home and away form. Whereas Munster, along with Leicester, have been one of only two sides to beat them in their own ground, the Saints have lost all seven of their away assignments this season.
Nevertheless, they are clearly of a mind to give this a rattle, and as they proved in the first meeting they have the most success with their carries into the gainline of any team in the Premiership. They’ve also made the most carries (251) of any team over the first two rounds with captain Lewis Ludlam leading the way on 29, and as in that defiant second-half performance by Munster a month ago, they will again take some subduing.
A strong start by Munster would make the crowd more of a factor and perhaps disabuse the Saints of any notion that they might make off with what still remains one of the most prized scalps in this competition.
Failing that, this could be quite a test of Rowntree’s calculated gamble.
MUNSTER: Mike Haley; Calvin Nash, Antoine Frisch, Jack Crowley, Shane Daly; Joey Carbery, Craig Casey; Dave Kilcoyne, Niall Scannell, Roman Salanoa; Jean Kleyn, Tadhg Beirne; Jack O’Donoghue, Peter O’Mahony (capt), Gavin Coombes.
Replacements: Scott Buckley, Josh Wycherley, John Ryan, John Hodnett, Alex Kendellen, Paddy Patterson, Rory Scannell, Liam Coombes.
NORTHAMPTON SAINTS: George Furbank; Tommy Freeman, Matt Proctor, Rory Hutchinson, James Ramm; Fin Smith, Alex Mitchell; Alex Waller, Mikey Haywood, Paul Hill; David Ribbans, Alex Moon; Lukhan Salakaia-Loto, Courtney Lawes, Lewis Ludlam (capt).
Replacements: Robbie Smith, Ethan Waller, Alfie Petch, Alex Coles, Angus Scott-Young, Callum Braley, Fraser Dingwall, Courtnall Skosan.
Referee: Tual Trainini (France).
Head-to-head: P7, Munster 5 wins, Northampton 2 wins.
Betting: 1-10 Munster, 50-1 Draw, 6-1 Northampton. Handicap odds (Northampton +13 pts) 10-11 Munster, 20-1 Draw, 10-11 Northampton.
Forecast: Munster to win.
