New Zealand v Ireland
Venue: Sky Stadium, Wellington.
Kick-off: Saturday 7.05pm local time/8.05am Irish.
On TV: Live on Sky Sports.
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Now history truly beckons.
Ireland joined a select group of just five countries, and six teams, to beat the All Blacks on New Zealand soil last week and now they seek to rub shoulders with an even more exclusive group of teams.
Only South Africa, France and the British & Irish Lions have ever won a Test series against the All Blacks in New Zealand, doing so just once each (along with drawing four) from a combined total of 30 series in this, the ultimate away challenge.
To put both the scale of the task and prize at stake for this Ireland team further into context, previous Irish sides (five times), England (six times), Wales and Scotland (four times apiece) have all lost Test series in New Zealand without picking up so much as a solitary win.
Australia played three series here before the home-and-away Bledisloe Cup came into being, albeit the Wallabies did win 2-1 in 1986 when all three games were in New Zealand. Including that one, and Argentina’s two series here, the All Blacks have hosted a grand total of 55 Test series against eight countries and the Lions, and only ever lost four of them.
The All Blacks’ don’t really do series’ defeats at home.
This then is also a measure of how their backs have been against the wall since Ireland’s 23-12 victory in the second Test. That it was a deserved win has rather been lost in translation hereabouts amid the constant media questioning and All Blacks’ bleatings about last week’s flurry of one red and two yellow cards against them in last week’s opening half.
This rather conveniently overlooks that, before this flurry, Ireland had taken the game to the All Blacks and established a 10-0 lead, and indeed, when the sides were numerically equal, be it 15 or 14-a-side, Ireland outscored the home side by 17-7.
Granted, some of that can assuredly be attributed to the All Blacks’ energy levels dipping after such a concerted effort with 14 and 13 players on the pitch for the last 63 minutes.
However, it also overlooks that the All Blacks should have been reduced to 12 men when they went to uncontested scrums and that in some respects they were let off lightly. Nigel Owens says he would have given a second red card and a penalty try against them, albeit that’s easier to say from in front of a TV screen.
Yet save for Sam Cane, when admitting last Tuesday that “our discipline let us down massively”, there’s hardly been a mea culpa out of their camp, least of all from Ian Foster, who continued to take issue with last week’s officiating yesterday.
The All Blacks look altogether more grizzled with Foster’s quartet of changes, restoring Nepo Laulala, Sam Whitelock, David Havili and Air Jordan, thereby strengthening their scrum, lineout, kicking game and cutting edge.
Angry and hurt, they are sure to respond ferociously, as they did in Dublin in 2016 a fortnight after Ireland’s Chicago breakthrough win. Equally, while there is nothing like the same focus on the officials as there was in the Lions’ third Test after Rassie’s rant, the role of Wayne Barnes and his team of English assistants will be crucial.
Since Barnes first took charge of an Irish international in that taut 14-10 2011 World Cup pool win over Georgia in Bordeaux, Ireland have had a 65% win-loss ratio in Test rugby, but with the experienced English barrister in charge, Ireland have won eight and lost 12, equating to a 40% win-loss ratio.
What’s more, since Ireland’s 17-15 Grand Slam win in Cardiff in 2009, when the penalty count was 15-5 to Wales, Ireland have lost all seven away matches when Barnes has been referee.
Another vagary is the pernicious Wellington weather, where forecasts can be proven wrong at short notice.
“There’s an understanding of that, which is good because it wasn’t supposed to rain after 6pm on Tuesday night and it was tipping down and unbelievably windy. Our kickers, Johnny, Conor [Murray] and Joey [Carbery] were out there on the pitch trying to work it out.
“I so suppose the answer is, you can’t work it, in the bowl where it swirls about everywhere. But some of our lads who are our half-backs have had some experience of that and Jamison [Gibson-Park] played there for quite some time, which is quite good for us,” said Farrell of his one-time Hurricanes scrumhalf.
It must be against the odds that Ireland will again come storming out of the blocks and score a try inside the first seven or three minutes, if only because the All Blacks will be extra motivated to avoid a three-peat.
“I’m sure that they’ve talked about the start themselves and I’d like to get that start pretty right as much as we can, but we know that they’re going to have a big say in that,” admitted Farrell.
“We’ve just got to be on it for 80 minutes, that’s it. You’ve got to be on it for 80 minutes, take the rough with the smooth and get back to neutral and go again, because against the world’s best not everything is going to go your way.”
It’s set up akin to a pitch at a Grand Slam, and Brian O’Driscoll for one reckons a series win would surpass those 1948, 2009 and 2018 landmarks.
“We are making sure that everyone realises this is it, like,” said Farrell when asked if this compared. “This is the game that we all want, it’s the chance of a lifetime, a massive occasion that we want to be able to deal with, so therefore I don’t think we can lose to see where we’re at.
“It doesn’t get any tougher than this, New Zealand at their best after a defeat. It’s where we want to be, the series on the line. It’s exactly where we want to be.”
For Ireland to make an extraordinary piece of history, most likely they’re going to have to roll with the punches more so than last week, and as they struggled to do in the first Test. Yet it’s hard to imagine anything resembling the Hamilton Horror Show of a decade ago is on the cards.
This Irish team looks equipped to stay composed in the rarefied air of a series decider in New Zealand. They’ve also been very competitive in both Tests, for the 42-19 scoreline in Auckland flattered the All Blacks on the balance of play.
As the weight of history suggests, the odds still favour the All Blacks. But if the Irish set-piece and kicking game maintains last week’s improvements, if Barnes is uber fair, especially at the breakdown, this Irish team has a realistic shot like no other team before them.
NEW ZEALAND: Jordie Barrett (Hurricanes); Will Jordan (Crusaders), Reiko Ioane (Blues), David Havili (Crusaders), Sevu Reece (Crusaders, Tasman); Beauden Barrett (Blues), Aaron Smith (Highlanders); George Bower (Crusaders), Codie Taylor (Crusaders), Nepo Laulala (Blues), Brodie Retallick (Chiefs), Sam Whitelock (Crusaders), Scott Barrett (Crusaders), Sam Cane (Chiefs, capt), Ardie Savea (Hurricanes). Replacements: Dane Coles (Hurricanes), Aidan Ross (Chiefs), Ofa Tu’ungafasi (Blues), Akira Ioane (Blues), Dalton Papalii (Blues), Folau Fakatava (Highlanders), Richie Mo’unga (Crusaders), Roger Tuivasa-Sheck (Blues).
IRELAND: Hugo Keenan (Leinster/UCD); Mack Hansen (Connacht), Robbie Henshaw (Leinster/Buccaneers), Bundee Aki (Connacht/Galwegians), James Lowe (Leinster); Johnny Sexton (Leinster/St Mary’s College, capt), Jamison Gibson Park (Leinster); Andrew Porter (Leinster/UCD), Dan Sheehan (Leinster/Lansdowne), Tadhg Furlong (Leinster/Clontarf), James Ryan (Leinster/UCD), Tadhg Beirne (Munster/Lansdowne), Peter O’Mahony (Cork Constitution),Josh van der Flier (Leinster/UCD), Caelan Doris (Leinster/St Mary’s College). Replacements: Rob Herring (Ulster/Ballynahinch), Cian Healy (Leinster/Clontarf), Finlay Bealham (Connacht/Buccaneers), Kieran Treadwell (Ulster/Ballymena), Jack Conan (Leinster/Old Belvedere), Conor Murray (Munster/Garryowen), Joey Carbery (Munster/Clontarf), Keith Earls (Munster/Young Munster).
Referee: Wayne Barnes (England).
Head-to-head: Played 35, New Zealand 30 wins, 1 draw, Ireland 4 wins.
Last five meetings: (2018) Ireland 16 New Zealand 9 (Dublin). (2019) New Zealand 46 Ireland 14 (RWC q/f, Tokyo). (2021) Ireland 29 New Zealand 20. (2022) New Zealand 42 Ireland 19. New Zealand 12 Ireland 23.
Forecast: New Zealand to win.
