Ireland v ItalyLansdowne Road, 2.0 On television: Network 2, BBC1The old adage about Irish teams says they're never more dangerous than when underdogs, so by extension they're never more dangerous to themselves than when roaring hot favourites.
Today, the second half of the theory will be put to the test when the Italians provide the biggest banana skin of the Six Nations campaign.
On the face of it, this game is as much about Ireland's state of mind as anything else, for if they are mentally right then class should tell. Certainly Eddie O'Sullivan confidently expressed the view yesterday that this Irish squad's professionalism will protect them from the prevailing expectancy.
After accumulating 97 points against their supposedly superior Celtic foes, another sell-out Lansdowne Road crowd (almost 4,000 tickets were returned by the Italian Federation and snapped up on the IRFU's website) will anticipate another handsome home win; all the more so given the championship will most likely come down to points difference if Ireland won here and in Paris.
"We've got to go out and try to win and then deal with Paris after that. We have to keep our eye on the ball," said O'Sullivan.
"It's really about a professional focus. We have to start well and take care of all the basics. The bread and butter has to be done first and then you can apply the jam. I suppose there is a slight danger that the players might start thinking about the jam first. But we've trained very hard, quite physically, earlier in the week, and hopefully we can bring that out on the field."
This looks a relatively well-timed fixture. Ireland have had ample preparation and,against the Italians, are presented with an ideal opportunity to rectify the flaws of the win over Scotland. The Italians shouldn't be as competitive on the Irish throw as the Scots were, and aside from working intensively on that, O'Sullivan has also highlighted his team's attacking possibilities from phase play, bearing in mind four of the five tries against Scotland came from set-pieces or turnovers.
This is the likeliest route to Irish success, for while the Italians have been at their most effective when games have been stop-start and moving from set-piece to set-piece, Ireland's last two wins against the Azzurri came after the Italians lost their defensive shape when taken through phases at a high tempo.
The Italian coach Brad Johnstone conceded yesterday that in comparison to Wales, and for that matter Scotland, Ireland will test his team more regularly out wide. Then there's Brian O'Driscoll.
"I think he's the best centre in the world, very athletic, very intelligent and very fast. We're putting a lot of responsibility on Cristian Stoica to stop him," said Johnstone.
In the corresponding fixture two years ago, Stoica and the rest of the Italian midfield were pierced so regularly that they were reshuffled, though O'Sullivan maintains the Italians have come on immeasurably since.
"They're very aggressive, very physical and have a very controlled way of playing the game. Brad Johnstone has brought that to the team. Their set-piece is solid, they hang on to the ball and they've a world-class goal-kicker (in Diego Dominguez)."
Against that, Italy's try count has been noticeably down when Dominguez has played in the last two seasons and, despite a reportedly improved build-up, one imagines their heads will drop if a few scores or decisions go against them.
In mitigation of their poor penalty and yellow card count these past two seasons, Johnstone diplomatically pointed out yesterday that Italy's reputation precedes them in the eyes of referees.
There are a few concerns about this Irish team, even if this isn't the likeliest setting to expose them. Not since the World Cup qualifier against Georgia over three years and 35 games ago has an Irish team taken the field without either of their spiritual leaders, Keith Wood or Mick Galwey, in the 22.
And as an aside, this will be Peter Clohessy's Lansdowne Road farewell.
While the captaincy was perceived as being good for David Humphreys's game when he led Ulster to European Cup success three seasons ago, that was without the added responsibility of goalkicking and restarts.
Accounts vary as to Humphreys's standing in the annals of Irish record points-scorers. The official IRFU statistician, Des Daly, confirms that the outhalf has now scored 308 points (theoretically equalling Michael Kiernan's landmark), though contrary to the International Board and Rothmans bibles, Kiernan's tally should be 305 and not 308. Most probably, therefore, he is now the record holder, though his first score today will end all arguments, and it couldn't happen to a nicer guy.
Ultimately, it wouldn't be that surprising if this is a scratchy game which yields a convincing Irish win, not dissimilar to that over Scotland. Even if Ireland don't always flow collectively, that win showed they have the individuals to take care of sides a tier below them.
REPLACEMENTS: Ireland - F Sheahan (Mun), P Wallace (Lein), P O'Connell (Mun), E Miller (Lein), G Easterby (Llanelli), R O'Gara, (Mun), T Howe (Ulst). Italy - A Moretti, F Pucciarello, S Dellape, A De Rossi, M Mazzantini, R Pez, C Zanoletti
REFEREE: R Dickson (Scotland)
TOUCH JUDGES: J Dume (France), N Whitehouse (Wales)
