Aidan O’Brien might have the task of preparing Australia for Saturday’s Dubai Duty Free Irish Derby but perhaps the most delicate balancing act of all this week is the one facing the Curragh authorities in trying to provide ground conditions that will permit the odds-on favourite to run.
Something of a nightmare scenario in terms of an uncertain weather outlook looks like presenting itself ahead of Ireland’s most valuable and prestigious race, with very different scenarios being presented in terms of possible rainfall amounts falling at Irish racing’s HQ.
The uncertainty was highlighted yesterday when the Curragh put 4mms of water on the track to maintain going conditions at “good to firm” even though with the recent warm spell due to break tonight some forecasters are telling officials to expect some significant rainfall over the next couple of days.
"There is a huge variance in the amounts we're being told we might get by different weather organisations," the Curragh manager Paul Hensey said yesterday. "It appears like the south of the country is going to get some significant rain from Wednesday night on. We're being told we might get some of that, but we're also getting predictions that it could stay below us."
It isn’t the first time the weather threatens to be a headache before the €1.25 million classic. O’Brien’s 10th Irish Derby winner, Camelot, almost didn’t start in the race two years ago due to testing ground conditions. In 2009, Sea The Stars was pulled out of the race the morning before and the Curragh was criticised for over-watering the course before rain arrived at HQ at just the wrong time.
‘Close eye’
“We put 4mms on this morning because the ground was drying out and if we hadn’t it could have got to firm by tomorrow,” Hensey said yesterday. “Obviously we will keep a close eye on everything. We don’t want the ground to go firm but we also don’t want to put on water that might have a negative impact if it does rain.”
O’Brien has pointed to how a tough slog in the mud may have resulted in Camelot’s subsequent form tapering off somewhat and the champion trainer is adamant Australia won’t be asked to race on ground that is too testing for the impressive Epsom Derby winner.
The son of previous Curragh Classic winners Galileo and Ouija Board is the headline act among 11 entries left in after yesterday's five-day declarations, an entry dominated by O'Brien who has six other options, including the three other colts he ran at Epsom – Geoffrey Chaucer, Kingfisher and Orchestra – as well as the Dewhurst hero War Command, who ran fourth to Kingman in the St James's Palace Stakes over a mile just eight days ago.
Kingston Hill, runner-up to Australia at Epsom, and True Story, seventh in the Derby, are the only remaining cross-channel hopes, although uncertainty surrounds both with the latter requiring quick conditions for Godolphin to journey to the Curragh and Roger Varian preferring a little cut for Kingston Hill.
Been installed
Australia has been installed a general 1/3 favourite to become the 17th horse to complete the Epsom-Curragh Derby double with some bookmakers predicating he may even start as short as Camelot who went off a 1/5 shot in 2012.
Dermot Weld has left in the Epsom eighth Fascinating Rock and the only other contender is John Oxx's outsider, Ponfeigh, winner of two minor races at a mile within eight days of each other earlier this month. Nevertheless Ponfeigh has been installed as low as 10/1 with some firms to become Oxx's third Irish Derby winner after Sinndar (2000) and Alamshar (2003.).
Some of the cream of the juvenile crop remain in the Group Two Gain Railway Stakes on Saturday’s undercard, including the Norfolk Stakes third, Ahlan Emarati.
