Maybe it’s an inevitable result of timing but Saturday’s Betfred 2,000 Guineas at Newmarket is a typically perplexing first European Classic of 2025.
The final day of Ireland’s National Hunt campaign will barely have started at Punchestown before the historic charge up the Rowley Mile is off at 3.35.
It means a majority of the 11 runners will be having their first race of the season in the Guineas, including all three Irish hopes.
Joseph O’Brien won the race in 2012 as a jockey on board his father Aidan’s Camelot and now tries to win it as a trainer with the Group One winner Scorthy Champ. There is a potential head-to-head with his father as Expanded has emerged as Ballydoyle’s big hope for Guineas glory.
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Also in the mix is Green Impact, which will try to secure Jessica Harrington a first English Classic at the age of 78.
After weeks of high-profile jump festival action, this weekend supplies a deluge of the most elite Classic action as Sunday’s 1,000 Guineas throws up a potential superpower clash.
Ballydoyle’s triple-Group One winner Lake Victoria takes on Godolphin’s top filly Desert Flower in a race where just four of the 10 runners have been seen in action already in 2025.
Such an opaque outlook in terms of form, or even firm information as to how the cream of Europe’s top Classic performers have matured, or not, over the winter, is invariably an issue at this time of year.
That two of the most prestigious races of the season can sometimes seem like an exploratory exercise is unsatisfactory in some ways, but also part of the Guineas appeal.
The contrast to Saturday night’s Kentucky Derby could hardly be greater. America’s most famous race – billed as the most exciting two minutes in sport – is off at 11.57pm and live on Sky. All 20 runners have already run at least twice in 2025.
Aidan O’Brien adopted a similar “Durby” policy seven years ago, giving Mendelssohn two prep runs before an ultimately fruitless attempt to land the Run for the Roses. But his Guineas policy has been different.
His record 10 winners of the 2,000 Guineas all made their first appearance of the year at Newmarket. Not surprisingly, he has persevered with that approach, although it is six years since his last success and this Classic run-in has been notably uncertain.
Long-time winter favourite The Lion In Winter didn’t bloom in time, while his replacement, Twain, was ruled out earlier this week due to an unsatisfactory scope. It means Expanded fills in rather in the manner of last October’s Dewhurst.
Just a week after a winning debut, Expanded lined up at Newmarket and only went down by a neck to Shadow Of Light. The latter was crowned Europe’s top two-year-old but lines up in the Guineas as Godolphin’s number two hope, jockey William Buick opting for Ruling Court instead.
Crucially, Ruling Court has a race under his belt already this season, the UAE Guineas in Meydan on March 1st. So too has the colt around which so much of this Classic appears to revolve around.
Field Of Gold was beaten in two of his four juvenile starts, but looked to have transformed over the winter when winning last month’s Craven in spectacular style.
A new and more mature Field Of Gold was quickly made favourite to give his veteran trainer John Gosden a first victory in the race, filling in the last gap on his English Classic CV. Field Of Joy’s sire, Kingman, was the nearest he’s had to date when runner-up in 2014.
Maybe maturity has worked a similar, or even better, transformation on some of his rivals. But proof of that is already in the bag with Field Of Gold.
No such proof surrounds Desert Flower or Lake Victoria and the latter, particularly, has prompted some uncertainty about her readiness for this in the last month. On juvenile form, they are rated well clear of their rivals on Sunday.
Ger Lyons is also in pursuit of a first English Classic with his filly Red Letter. She was less than a length-and-a-half behind Lake Victoria in last year’s Moyglare. That connections were disappointed with that suggests a natural talent that time might only benefit.
