The Lion In Winter spent months as favourite for May’s Betfred 2,000 Guineas until that status got wiped out in seconds on a spring Monday morning when it became clear that Twain is the apple of Aidan O’Brien’s classic eye for 2025.
Admittedly the precarious nature of ante-post betting around callow three-year-old racehorses means that’s hardly set in stone. O’Brien was also noticeably keen on the progress made over the winter by Expanded, another son of Coolmore’s new super stallion Wootton Bassett.
But in an annual ceremony almost three decades old, racing’s record-breaking trainer paraded his latest crop of blue-blood classic prospects in front of media at Ballydoyle, at the end of which he opted to be formally photographed with Twain first.
The colt, who made a six-length winning debut at Leopardstown last October, and just eight days later followed it up with a Group One success in France, took to the spotlight with élan as odds compilers in the digital betting village frantically reshuffled the Guineas betting.
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Perhaps after a winter spent focusing on stamina-sapping National Hunt racing, the speed of change on the flat took some getting used to. But those layers familiar with the Ballydoyle vernacular, even allowing for the usual wriggle room, weren’t slow to react.
“The Lion In Winter is in good shape. He just took a little bit of time to come right, so he’s a little bit behind the others. He was at the Curragh last weekend and it went well, and the work was easy,” O’Brien had said.
“Whether he’ll make it in time for the Guineas, I’m not sure. He’s carrying plenty of condition, so in the next few weeks we’ll know.
“If he doesn’t go to Newmarket, he might be trained for something like the Dante and go straight to the Derby. There has to be a doubt about the Guineas, but he’s very well.”
It’s no perfect science the identity of the horse chosen to accompany the trainer at the end of such mornings: for every real deal such as City Of Troy a year ago, there’s a flop like Battleground.
But it does tend to give a glimpse into O’Brien’s thinking before the summer game proper cranks into top gear and Twain looks to be the golden boy.
Expanded got his picture taken as well. He too had a winning debut followed up quickly by a drop into the Group One deep-end in the Dewhurst. Despite his inexperience only Godolphin’s juvenile champion Shadow Of Light was good enough to beat him a neck.
Just how fluid the classic picture is six weeks before the Guineas is underlined by O’Brien floating a scenario whereby Expanded might even bypass Newmarket altogether.
“Expanded just got beaten in the Dewhurst so he’s not a Group winner. So, if he didn’t go there [Guineas], he could go to the Tetrarch [Stakes] the day after,” he said. “Henri Matisse, it will depend on the ground, but he could go to France. He’s a fast horse, could like going around the bend if the going is nice. But all those things could change.”
What almost never changes is how Ballydoyle in the spring is where attention goes to first when it comes to identifying potential classic winners for the season ahead. It has been thus for nearly 60 years, first under its originator Vincent O’Brien, and perhaps even more so with his successor at the helm for the last quarter of a century.
[ Aidan O’Brien’s Dewhurst runner-up Expanded shortening in 2,000 Guineas bettingOpens in new window ]
What doesn’t change either is the remorseless focus on essentially a stallion making business.
O’Brien doesn’t miss the opportunity to point out how Twain, Expanded, Henri Matisse and the Lagadere winner Camille Pissarro are all by Wootton Bassett, a “freak” stallion. Coolmore’s US based sire Justify has progeny that reminded him of Galileo “but with more speed”.
In contrast, The Lion In Winter is something of a maverick, being by someone else’s stallion, Sea The Stars. To an uneducated eye he hasn’t grown much through the winter but still remains top of the Derby market after Monday’s media briefing.
Ballydoyle’s champion juvenile filly from last year is Lake Victoria, a daughter of Juddmonte’s stallion Frankel, who won a trio of Group One races in three different countries in 2024. A potential clash with Godolphin’s Wild Flower in May’s 1,000 Guineas will have kept some jumping sceptics warm through the winter only her participation comes with a warning.
“She had a long break, longer than the others because her year went very long,” said O’Brien. “I’m not sure if she’ll make the Guineas but we’re training her for it. If she didn’t (make it) she would go for the Athasi Stakes the day after at the Curragh if she didn’t come in time.”
Some more familiar names such as the Gold Cup hero Kyprios and last year’s Irish Derby winner Los Angeles are among the power-packed 220-horse Ballydoyle string. However, the fact that over half the occupants are as yet unnamed and unraced two-year-olds underlines the revolving nature of top-flight flat racing.
At this point a year ago, Twain was a blank sheet of paper. Now, he might be the most valuable classic prospect in the world.
“It looks like he’ll have no problem with a mile. It looks like he has a good chance of getting a mile and a quarter. And if he’s that good over a mile and a quarter, he’ll get the Derby trip,” O’Brien said.
The excitement generated by such a prospect never changes.
