It will take two minutes to finish Saturday night’s $7 million Breeders’ Cup Classic but split seconds at the start will be critical if City Of Troy’s date with dirt destiny is to be successful.
The colt acclaimed by Aidan O’Brien as the best he’s ever trained is the Irish man’s 18th starter in the prize he and the Coolmore ownership crave more than any other.
Where Ballydoyle luminaries like Galileo, Giants Causeway, George Washington and So You Think came up short, City Of Troy now gets a shot at proving he can successfully translate turf brilliance to an alien surface in America’s richest race.
The factors he must overcome will continue to be exhaustively pored over on the run-up to Saturday night’s 9.41pm off time. Whether he can cope the first time of asking with top US and Japanese horses used to dirt all their lives has already dominated the build-up to this 41st Breeders’ Cup.
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Speculation as to whether City Of Troy is more a son of Justify than a grandson of Galileo has been endlessly debated. Since landing at Del Mar, his every twitch has been examined for significance, stride patterns scrutinised closer than policies from a US presidential candidate.
And all of it could be rendered useless when the gates open. City Of Troy’s young life to date has been about leaving the stalls and immediately settling. It’s the European model for saving energy on undulating grass circuits. Now he must change the habits of a lifetime because US dirt is about getting out lightning quick to get a good position.
Even on turf, countless European stars have found out the hard way how even the slightest hesitation from the gates spells disaster. Making up ground around tight American oval tracks is no easy task, and Del Mar is tighter than most.
In that regard, City Of Troy’s habit of hanging right under pressure is no plus. But the critical factor is the dirt. If he pings the start and gets to the front there is every reason to believe a less-than-vintage Classic field will struggle to keep up with him.
If he doesn’t, he’s facing the real unknown — kickback.
O’Brien’s minutely detailed preparation has included taking City Of Troy to the English all-weather outpost in Southwell last month where he broke from American starting gates and galloped on the artificial surface.
What is impossible to legislate for, however, is how the horse reacts to being behind horses and for the first time facing kickback in his face. It isn’t the most pleasant experience for even the hardiest dirt performers. For a complete novice, it is often way too much.
Ryan Moore must get City Of Troy out of box three at least level. Normally three would be a good draw, better than being hung out wide. But the kickback element means being stuck in the car park mightn’t have been the worst thing for a dirt ingenue.
Rarely if ever then has the old maxim about not winning a race at the start but losing it there applied more.
That City Of Troy is Morning Line favourite in the US speaks volumes for his reputation and connections who have pinned their faith to how their paragon is a son of their hottest stallion sensation, Justify. He was a Triple Crown winner. But City Of Troy is out of a Galileo mare.
Jerry Bailey was one of America’s top jockeys for two decades and is now a respected TV pundit. He had been singing the Irish horse’s praises for weeks, up until seeing him in the flesh.
“He still is a good-looking horse, but he’s more feminine than I thought he would be … more long and lanky, more turfy, if you will. He’s built like a turf horse,” Bailey said.
“Believe me, I love the horse. I think it’s a great story and I would love to see him win. But I think the biggest question anybody has is will he dirt? Seeing him, I didn’t get the answer I was looking for,” he added.
City Of Troy might be so naturally talented he overcomes everything on his final career start. Or he may be the latest European turf superstar unable to cope with what might even be labelled an unfair ask, a bit like throwing Johnny Sexton into a rugby league final.
Either way, it will make for compelling viewing, including on ITV and Virgin Three.
It’s a story arc that inevitably puts the handful of other Irish hopefuls in the shade although Donnacha O’Brien has a first-rate chance of breaking his Breeders’ Cup duck with Porta Fortuna in the Mile off at 11.45pm.
His father runs Diego Velazquez in that while Content goes in the Filly & Mare. Luxembourg and Wingspan fly the Ballydoyle flag in the Turf. That’s off at 9.01pm, a prelude, like much else, to the City Of Troy show.
