Punters on both sides of the Irish Sea may have to try their hands as amateur meteorologists to figure out the implications of continuing dire summer weather on Wednesday’s big-race action.
As well as the opposition, Aidan O’Brien’s outstanding colt Paddington could end up battling thunderstorms and high winds in Goodwood’s Group One Qatar Sussex Stakes.
That he is a proven operator on all kinds of ground conditions still entitles Paddington to start a heavy odds-on favourite to become O’Brien’s sixth winner of the flat highlight due off at 3.35pm.
A few hours later though it shapes as being a much more fluid situation for the Tote Galway Plate.
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Irish racing’s biggest steeplechase prize of the summer could end up taking place on anything but a high-season surface depending how much forecast overnight rainfall descends on Ballybrit.
Up to 15mms was an initial forecast although an ultra-damp July underlined how predictably unpredictable a task it is to work out the Irish weather.
It’s enough to make the prospect of working out a fiercely competitive 22-runner handicap look relatively straightforward although Kilcruit’s presence might actually make this a comparatively painless Plate exercise.
Willie Mullins’s favourite was the future once and, if he hasn’t lived up to that initial billing, his present prospects look hard to knock.
At the start of 2021 the racing world was Kilcruit’s oyster after a devastating bumper performance at the Dublin Racing Festival that prompted predictions of future greatness.
Subsequent defeat to Sir Gerhard at Cheltenham was followed by Grade One revenge at Punchestown. It’s in the context of such expectations that Kilcruit’s jumping career has proved a let-down.
A single win out of five hurdles races wasn’t supposed to be the case. A successful start over fences was followed by a pair of Grade One defeats before looking much more the real thing when scooting up in a handicap at Punchestown in April.
A tilt at the French Champion Hurdle in May didn’t work out but he pitches into the Plate with an official rating of 160 that doesn’t prevent him looking the one to beat.
No one will be watching the skies more than trainer Shark Hanlon who doesn’t want ultra-testing conditions for his hugely popular topweight Hewick. Last year’s winner bids to become the first since Ansar (2004-05) to win back-to-back.
Hanlon hasn’t ruled out skipping the race if the ground gets heavy. But should that happen, the 7lb gap to Kilcruit means no alternative handicap will come into play. A difference of more than 7lbs to the second topweight is required for that to occur.
Kilcruit looked to have retained at least a touch of that bumper class when scoring at Punchestown in a race that has a good track record for this task.
In a race where stamina worries exist for a contender like Enniskerry, and Andy Dufresne, and a stamina slog might not play to the strengths of Ash Tree Meadow and Easy Game, the No. 1 Mullins hope shapes as the one to beat.
The weather outlook has already forced a decision to move Wednesday’s three flat races to the front of the card.
Willie and Patrick Mullins are always to be reckoned with in the 1½ mile amateur maiden and they rely on a smart hurdler in Winter Fog this time.
However, they probably hadn’t reckoned initially on facing an opponent like Up And Under, a 106-rated colt that ran in the Irish Derby on the back of a couple of admirable placed efforts in classic trials.
Rhythm King was well fancied to win here on Monday but nothing much went right after a slow start compromised his chance. He has further to go in Wednesday’s opener but that shouldn’t be an issue and neither is testing ground.
Youcrackmeup had a much happier time on Monday, making most to break her maiden in 1½ mile handicap. She is declared for a two-mile handicap and if unscathed from her effort earlier this week can defy a penalty.
Fancy A Cosmo, a Wexford winner last time, is one of the bottomweights for the concluding handicap and can boast placed form on soft ground around Galway in the past.
