Pumas the only threat to the old order

On Rugby: This time next year the quarter-final line-up for the 2007 Rugby World Cup will be known. Most probably there will be the usual gnashing of IRB teeth about the non-development of the so-called developing rugby countries. Last time around, the quarter-final line-up, for the first time ever, comprised the big three Southern Hemisphere sides and the old Five Nations - prompting Argentina captain Agustin Pichot to remark sarcastically that the organisers and TV stations had their desired line-up.

Given the grossly unfair scheduling foisted on Argentina and Italy, the scrumhalf's paranoia was understandable. In the four previous world cups, Samoa (twice), Fiji, Canada and Argentina themselves all provided an element of variety by reaching the quarter-finals. Yet for all the IRB's investment in the other rugby-playing nations, the likeliest scenario is the big eight will be the only ones still standing 12 months hence.

Argentina still represent the most viable threat to that elite cartel. They still have no domestic club game and only recently averted all-out war between their players and their Union Argentina de Rugby (UAR). But enough of their star names are still around, and they have been supplemented by a new crop of talent.

This autumn they play England, Italy and, in preparation for the World Cup opener against the hosts at the Stade de France on September 7th next year, France. They will also host Ireland twice next summer and, of course, the World Cup is the one time every four years when they have about the same time in camp as everyone else.

When Eddie O'Sullivan was asked, in the aftermath of last summer's second Test against the All Blacks in Eden Park, how he would feel about facing the same opponents in the World Cup quarter-finals, the Irish coach replied in the affirmative, reminding us it would mean Ireland had emerged from a very tough qualifying group.

This was disappointing to hear in one sense, for you'd like it if Ireland were to reach their first ever semi-final - they are the only country from the big eight not to have done so - and avoiding the All Blacks in the last eight would seem a more promising way of achieving that.

To do so, though, Ireland must beat France in their third pool game in Stade de France as well as the Pumas in their concluding group tie in Parc des Princes. Les Bleus seem not entirely sure of where they are going under Bernard Laporte, especially in terms of selection, a huge crop of their frontliners are of the veteran status, and the underfiring, under-siege Frederic Michalak needs to solve their outhalf problems.

Yet they still look long-range cup joint favourites, simply because they are at home. Watching their under-21s' fearless, inspired, reach-for-the-skies rugby in beating Australia and defending champions South Africa to win the Under-21 World Cup last summer at a packed Clermont Auvergne brought to mind their epic semi-final wins over Australia in 1987 and the All Blacks in 1999.

For Ireland to have their best chance of progressing as pool winners you'd imagine that O'Sullivan will have to go against his tendency to pick the same team continuously. Were he to truly trust and rotate his 30-man squad for the opening games against African and European qualifiers, it would both generate squad morale and keep the frontliners fresher for the heavy-duty games to follow. And that process needs to start this autumn.

Four years ago, Argentina, Australia and France all rested their frontline players before meeting Ireland. Unlike all the other seven quarter-finalists, Ireland started the nucleus (eight) of their team in all four pool games, and that seemed to contribute to a tired, 43-21, quarter-final defeat.

In terms of squad development, Graham Henry and co are way ahead of the posse. And one suspects they won't be too disappointed with their defeat to the Boks in their concluding Tri Nations game, as it will have been a timely reminder that they are mortal.

Still, they rely heavily on Dan Carter and the magnificent Richie McCaw and their lineout remains an Achilles heel.

Many of the cognoscenti regard the Wallabies, the only two-time winners, as proverbial dark horses again. They have certainly regrouped under John Connolly and his new coaching staff, but their scrum remains blighted.

South Africa rolled up their sleeves and regained some pride in the Tri Nations but, riven by political infighting and a continual flight of talent, still look a long way from the best team on the planet.

England have lost a golden generation of warriors, are bedevilled by poor player management and have a head coach under extreme pressure. Wales have still to recover from last season's spectacular implosion and have similar player/management problems. The Scots are simply short of world-class players.

If Brian O'Driscoll and Paul O'Connell are fit, at their best and surrounded by the current crop of quality players as well as greater strength in depth, Ireland will never have gone into a World Cup in better nick.

Yet, France, with home advantage, look the likeliest team a year out to prevent the All Blacks from reaching their holy grail.

Alas, the two countries, along with Argentina, that bar Ireland's path to a first ever semi-final.