HEINEKEN CUP:TWO EUROPEAN superpowers lurk in their way, but at least Leinster won't have to leave Dublin until a potential final in Cardiff. Indeed, Ieuan Evans couldn't have done much more.
The former Welsh and Lions winger, nominated to pick out the home teams in the televised draw for both the Heineken Cup and Challenge Cup, gave all three Irish provinces still in European contention the carrot of home semi-finals.
Leinster will almost certainly seek to raise an extra €700,000 or so and accommodate their fans by staging their quarter-final at the Aviva Stadium. And if they overcome old foes Leicester on the second weekend of April they will have a semi-final at the same venue against the winners of the Biarritz-Toulouse quarter-final.
Ulster, in the knock-out stages for first time in a dozen years, must beat Northampton in Franklin’s Gardens to secure a home semi-final against the winners of the Perpignan-Toulon quarter-final, which would also, most likely, be at the Aviva on the same weekend, April 30th/May 1st, as they cannot use their “home” ground of Ravenhill.
Munster’s path to the Amlin Challenge Cup final, also in Cardiff on Friday, May 20th, the night before the Heineken Cup final, has been facilitated by a potential home semi-final.
But first they must overcome Brive away, and would then face Harlequins or Wasps.
Stade Français or Montpellier would be at home to La Rochelle or Clermont in the other half of the draw.
An Irish winner in either competition would ensure Connacht of a place in next season’s Heineken Cup.
Leinster, 5 to 1 before the weekend, have been installed as 2 to 1 favourites, with Northampton at 3 to 1 and Leicester and Toulouse at 7s. Ulster are the outsiders at 33 to 1. Good value last week, Leinster hardly are now.
“Potential is something that can’t be realised until you get past the quarter-finals,” said coach Joe Schmidt of the semi-final draw. “Leicester is as far as we can focus really. All I can say is, I thought our pool was pretty tough, our pathway from here on in is every bit as tough, if not tougher.
“Leicester, I think, have won the Premiership three years running. They’re perennial play-off players in the Heineken Cup. Two years ago it was the final of the European Cup when only three points separated the two teams.
“Whatever happens it’s going to be a very difficult assignment. At least we’ve got home advantage and the majority of the support is going to be behind us.”
Schmidt also gave a strong hint that the tie will be moved from the RDS to the Aviva’s 50,000 capacity when admitting: “I think the players are pretty relaxed with the RDS or the Aviva. We’ve had a couple of good experiences in the Aviva already this season. I think with the quality of the opposition it would be a fantastic opportunity to give our supporters a bit more opportunity to get along to the game. That was really a massive part of what motivated the players on Friday night.”
For much of a dramatic finale yesterday, the opposition for both Leinster and Ulster remained in the balance pending the outcome of the Wasps-Toulouse match. Level with five minutes to go, David Skrela fractionally missed a drop goal which could have earned the visitors a home quarter-final against Leicester, which in turn would have seen Leinster face Toulon.
Instead, a David Lemi try with 46 seconds remaining condemned Toulouse to a repeat of last year’s final, almost certainly in Basque country, ie, San Sebastien.
Catalonia may stage another quarter-final after Perpignan earned a home tie which is expected to be played in the Barcelona Olympic Stadium.
Northampton may also move their quarter-final to a bigger venue from the 13,500 Franklin’s Gardens capacity, with Milton Keynes being mentioned.
The four home teams have two weeks to nominate their venues and the quarter-final scheduling will be revealed today or tomorrow. Given the demands of television, the likelihood is that Northampton will play host to Ulster on Friday, April 8th, with Leinster facing Leicester the next evening, Perpignan welcoming Toulon earlier that afternoon and Biarritz at home to Toulouse on the Sunday, though this also hinges on venue availability.
Leicester have won both previous quarter-finals against Leinster, including a thumping 29-13 win at Lansdowne Road in 2005. Leinster have met the Tigers more than any other team in the Cup, sharing five wins apiece, the most recent of which was the 2009 final in Murrayfield which Leinster won 19-16.
Northampton are the only unbeaten side in this season’s Cup and have lost only four of their last 47 competitive games at Franklin’s Gardens. Ulster shared home pool wins with the Saints eight seasons ago.
“We’ll go into the game as the underdog,” commented David Humphreys, Ulster’s director of rugby, “but that suits us just fine. There’s a self-belief within our squad at the moment, we’ve recorded wins on the road in all competitions this season where perhaps people wouldn’t have expected us to, and we’ll relish the opportunity ahead of us.”
Munster’s route to the Challenge Cup final could have been altogether tougher. Brive, the inaugural Heineken Cup winners, emerged unbeaten from an undistinguished pool featuring Sale Sharks, Petrarca Rugby and El Salvador, and are currently 12th in the Top 14, just two points above Agen and relegation.
The carrot of more English visitors to Limerick should prove appealing, given both Harlequins and Wasps have twice lost there, with the latter a potential repeat of their memorable Heineken Cup semi-final at Lansdowne Road in 2004.
The odds on more Euro silverware for Irish rugby shortened over the weekend, but they will lose some of their rhythm now and must hope they emerge unscathed from the Six Nations. They then have one league match before the quarter-finals, with Munster playing Leinster at Thomond Park on the first weekend of April.
