Prospects for Rule 21 to be debated at this year's GAA Annual Congress have been improved by Wednesday's announcement by Northern Ireland Secretary Peter Mandelson that the Patten Report would be implemented nearly in full. Although senior GAA figures are reluctant to discuss the issue at what is seen as a delicate juncture, events this week are agreed to constitute progress.

Opinions are still divided on the issue but GAA president Joe McDonagh remains in favour of abolishing the controversial provision which prohibits members of the northern security forces from joining the Association. McDonagh is, however, constrained by memories of his unsuccessful attempt to remove the rule two years ago.

During that year's congress, he attempted initially to sweep away the provision with a surprise move on the Saturday afternoon. Instead a date was set for a special congress to discuss deletion - in keeping with a formula devised by McDonagh's predecessor Jack Boothman.

The special congress, held on May 30th 1998, went against McDonagh and he felt obliged to accept a watery compromise which committed the GAA to removing Rule 21 when the time was right.

". . . . Cumann Luthcleas Gael pledges its intent to delete Rule 21 from its official guide when effective steps are taken to implement the amended structures and policing arrangements envisaged in the British-Irish peace agreement."

Since then it has been regularly speculated that McDonagh might give the matter one more crack at this year's congress, his last as president and which will be held in his own county of Galway.

Sources close to the president insisted yesterday that this was never on the cards unless some movement on the question of policing was evident.

Now it is felt that the British government's bringing forward of legislation to give force to the Patten report constitutes such movement. "There's no doubt it is significant," said one GAA official close to the president. "The fact that it's been legislated for has to mean there's been effective steps taken to implement the proposals."

Reading between the lines of McDonagh's brief statement - welcoming the news from Westminster and stating that the situation would be "closely monitored" -yields the conclusion that a motion may be brought before April's congress.

Yet McDonagh knows that there is no point spearheading another attack on the provision unless he has managed to secure some change in the thinking of the Ulster counties who were instrumental in blocking his previous move.

Furthermore, the northern delegates - particularly from the six counties - resented what they saw as McDonagh's peremptory attempt to ram through abolition against their wishes. As a result, it is believed that the president will liaise widely with the Ulster counties and that he is anxious not to be seen as conducting a solo run on the issue.

Northern opinion on the matter is less effusive about the Patton implementation, seeing it as a step in the right direction rather than of landmark significance in itself. "It's only the start of it," said one Ulster official. "We'll wait and see if they actually do carry it out.

"Once the name is changed and recruitment gets underway, we'll have a better idea. If the SDLP and Sinn Fein give it their support, that will be significant for opinion up here."

In that nutshell the outstanding problems facing the abolitionists can be seen - as can fears that the original compromise from 1998 left too vague the description of the circumstances in which the GAA would remove Rule 21.

As ever the wider political environment will exercise a crucial influence on what the GAA does. In that light, time is not on McDonagh's side. The coming weeks are likely to be dominated by the decommissioning issue and whether the IRA hands in any weapons to the de Chastelain commission.

Should the Northern Executive survive the Ulster Unionists' deadline next month, the final deadline for decommissioning will loom ahead in May. Inconveniently, this will govern debate on the North for weeks beforehand. In this atmosphere of uncertainty, it will be easy to argue that the GAA should wait until the future of the new institutions is assured.

Unfortunately for McDonagh his final congress will be held in April and unless he can secure a sea-change in northern opinion - or convince certain southern counties to think for themselves - the chances of his being able to guide through this reform are doubtful.

Incoming president Sean McCague is an Ulsterman and has been sympathetic to the consensus within the northern province. Before Christmas he made an interesting statement to the Monaghan convention - to the effect that the GAA in Ulster would have to be ready to lead the move for repeal when reform was implemented.

At what point the six cross-border counties deem that reform has taken place remains the key to this long-running saga.