Pack's power provides key

Ireland can win this match, no doubt about it. And they know it. Therein lies the rub. After the heartbreak two weeks ago of coming closer than ever before to capturing a major scalp, the danger is that this Irish team has put too much pressure on itself to win at Wembley today.

Privately, some of the players admit to waking up at 4.0 a.m. dreaming of winning this one. Can win is one thing, need a win another, but must win can become self-defeating. That it seems to have almost become a mantra is understandable, though.

After all, even the dogs in O'Connell Street know they should have beaten the French two weeks ago. To pick themselves up from that low and beat Wales will be a huge psychological achievement. Ireland would be under less pressure to win today if the French had won by 10 points or more.

And Ireland have been down this road before. That 10-9 defeat to the French drew comparisons with the heroic 1991 World Cup quarter-final defeat to Australia by 19-18. What happened next? Ireland lost their ensuing Five Nations opener to an average Welsh side at Lansdowne Road by 16-15. Likewise, last season's 1816 defeat in Paris was followed by a 30-21 loss to Wales a fortnight later.

The mental pitfalls are obvious, although how the bookies can install Wales as 1/2 favourites with Ireland at 13/8 is slightly puzzling. True, any team with the Quinnells, that peerless practitioner of the scrum-half art Robert Howley, with the metronomic goal-kicking and under-rated playmaking abilities of Neil Jenkins, and the sheer presence of Scott Gibbs, cannot be under-rated. Even so they're not that good.

Suffice to say that Wales have a world class goalkicker and a real cutting edge in the backs, but an unproven pack who look particularly dodgy in the set-pieces. Ireland don't have a proven placekicker and haven't unveiled a cutting edge in the backs but they have an experienced, grizzly pack founded on solid set-pieces. One of these sides is tailor-made for the other.

Wales coach Graham Henry will have done his homework. He didn't buy himself a couple of new wallets thanks to the benevolence of the WRU for nothing. His unparalleled Super 12 record with the Auckland Blues, guiding them to three successive finals in which they lost just five of 39 matches, speaks for itself.

They'll assuredly revert more to the coach's type and attempt to reproduce the style of performance which so nearly did for South Africa last November. They'll seek to play it at a quick tempo, keep it fluid, and take the Irish pack out of a structured game as much as possible.

Conscious of avoiding line-outs, which is not the Welsh forte, there's a good chance that Howley will tap and go with any penalties between their own 22 and Jenkins's range. Bypassing midfield and giving their wingers a run, especially Martin Williams at Niall Woods, will surely come into their equation, and Woods should also anticipate a fair few box-kicks from Howley, as well as diagonal punts from Jenkins in behind him.

Henry will have studied the self-destructive ill-discipline which cost Ireland so dearly against France and deduce: "rattle 'em if you can". The Welsh pack aren't over-endowed with too many shrinking violets either and a tough, abrasive opening quarter seems the safest bet of all.

The scoreline against Scotland didn't flatter Wales - they gave away two soft seven-pointers. They controlled much of the first half and have a stronger tight five with the return of David Young and Craig Quinnell. For Ireland to win the gameplan is the opposite. They need to ensure solid set-pieces and play to them. Keep it simple, play the percentages, and nothing too flashy. Attack the narrow side and, if needs be, just maul the thing in from 30 metres, pick and go, or pop and go to the close-in runners. In short, pummel Wales up front.

The concern remains as to where the points will come from - in Ireland's last four serious tests they've scored 13, 0, 13 and 9. But at least they've another viable and alternative left-footed kicking option in Woods, who's also the English Premiership's leading try scorer with 11 this season.

A good start and a first, confidence-boosting bisecting of the posts from Humphreys would alleviate much of the pressure and maybe see Ireland play with a relative degree of freedom not afforded them in a long time.

It is a massive game for Ireland, and for Wales, too. Victory would set Gatland's team up nicely for a real tilt at home to England. Defeat - the thought of interviewing Irish players in another losing tunnel is too grim to bear - will see the vicious circle continue.

Undoubtedly, it will be a hard game, perhaps harder than even Ireland anticipate. If Ireland play the percentages, stick to the gameplan and, crucially, keep their discipline, then they should win. It could well be that the manner of the defeat to France will provide the most valuable lesson in discipline imaginable, and thus prove a turning point for this Irish team.

On the plus side, Ireland have the better pack, have a stronger defence, have been stunned from losing a game they should have won last time out, and their performances continue to improve gradually.

By comparison, Wales's graph under Henry seems to be about where Ireland were under Gatland a year ago - the first-off high against South Africa was akin to Ireland's effort in Paris before reality set in.

Ireland have come a long way since losing to Wales last year, have developed more strings to their bow, and by chance have another place-kicker on the field if the first one doesn't work. They are a far more professional, settled outfit with higher standards, less likely to experience the comedown they had that 12 months ago.

As they also look to be more of an 80-minute side, Ireland should eventually get there.