With so much mental baggage against them, deep down you suspect that Connacht do not believe they can beat Munster. But whether it's because of the old chip on the shoulder Connacht took into the fixture through having so many Leinster cast-offs, or there's a suspicion that Leinster don't have quite the same "bottle" as the others, you suspect that Connacht truly believe they can beat Leinster.
Verifying the point, up until last season's sudden loss of spirit, Connacht had beaten Leinster four times on the trot in Galway, and taken four bonus points out of their last three trips to Donnybrook. There's also a little edge to this one given the bad blood of the first clash a month ago when Mark McConnell's dismissal was the turning point. Thus, coming away from the Sportsground last Saturday, and especially bearing in mind Leinster's limp showing in the first half the night before in Belfast, you marked this one down as the first possible surprise of the Guinness Interpro series.
The sands have shifted a little since though. True, if anything Connacht should improve again. Wayne Munn, their new South African recruit at full back becomes Connacht's 28th player of the campaign but should add a touch more class and potency. Furthermore, he's the only change from last week as Steph Nel's understandable juggling is now yielding a favoured 15.
Leinster for their part have made five changes in personnel and seven positional following Matt Williams condemnatory verdict on the Ravenhill effort. Certainly the return of Emmet Byrne and Victor Costello should beef up a big pack. Kevin Putt and Eddie Hekenui may or may not necessarily be better than what they've replaced at halfback, but the introduction of new halves will probably gee Leinster up.
Alas, the number 10 jinx has struck again, and mindful of the European Cup starting a week hence, Leinster are not likely to take any risks with Hekenui's calf strain. If he doesn't make it, then Andy Dunne - excluded from the original 22 - will start.
Either way, Leinster will be playing their fourth outhalf in five games and their eighth different occupant of the number 10 jersey in the last two years. Coupled with six different scrumhalves, this has made for a scarcely credible 14 different half-back combinations since the corresponding fixture two years and 24 competitive games ago. Any wonder they're still knocking on the door of the top two?
So, with Shane Stephens and Munn adding to Connacht's previously rather lightweight attack, a home win wouldn't be all that surprising really, and Leinster look a tad vulnerable.
But Leinster still look the more capable of gaining an edge, they're liable to be on a bigger rebound from last week and the changes may just about work.
CONNACHT: W Munn; P Duignan, S Stephens, T Allnutt, N Carolan; E Elwood, B Shelbourne; D McFarland, M Uijs, J Screene, R Frost, D Browne, J Charlie (capt), C Rigney, J O'Connor. Replacements - D Rumney, M Smyth, J Ferris, G Shoeman, M Swift, M Cahill, J McVeigh.
LEINSTER: P McKenna; D Hickie, B O'Driscoll, M McHugh, G Dempsey; E Hekenui, K Putt; R Corrigan, S Byrne, E Byrne, L Cullen, M O'Kelly, E Miller, V Costello, L Toland (capt). Replacements - B O'Meara, N Turner, G D'Arcy, T Brennan, B Casey, G Halpin, P Smyth.
Referee: Gareth Doyle (IRFU).
Last six meetings: ('97-98) Leinster 23 Connacht 6. ('98-99) Leinster 29 Connacht 24, Connacht 24 Leinster 23. ('99-2000) Leinster 22 Connacht 19, Connacht 8 Leinster 53. (2000-1) Leinster 21 Connacht 15.
Overall Interprovincial Meetings: Played 57 Leinster 45 wins, 4 drawn, Connacht 8 wins.
Last five interpros: Connacht - L L L L L. Leinster W W L W L W.
Leading try scorers: Connacht - Eric Elwood 2. Leinster - Peter Smyth 2, Denis Hickie 2.
Leading points scorers: Connacht - Eric Elwood 46. Leinster - Mark McHugh 20.
Odds (Paddy Power): 7/4 Connacht, 16/1 Draw, 2/5 Leinster. (Handicap odds - Connacht +7pts) 10/11 Leinster, 20/1 Draw, 10/11 Connacht.
Forecast: Leinster to win.
