The challenge for England is to win conventionally, without the necessity of a superhuman performance from one player. That tends to happen once or twice in a generation. They desperately need runs from fresh sources. The challenge for Australia is to forget.
They must forget how they bowled England out for 67 in the first innings at Headingley, how they needed just one more wicket with a lead of 72 runs to retain the Ashes and how despite much sweat and toil on that fairytale, final afternoon they somehow lost the match.
How that hurts. Justin Langer, endearingly candid, admitted he felt physically sick when the match was “stolen”. Since then he has been working hard to ensure his team regroup and achieve their goal. In isolation that is not so difficult. One win at Old Trafford or the Oval will suffice. Yet there must remain the nagging feeling that by now they should be luxuriating in the knowledge the task is complete.
Langer may be propagating the “history is bunk” theory. After Headingley in 1981 the tourists were robbed once again by Ian Botham at Edgbaston. Their spine had been broken. They might easily have been 3-0 up in that series upon arrival in Manchester yet it was there that England retained the Ashes after Botham produced a better innings than the spectacular one at Headingley.
In 2005 Australia came to Old Trafford after the epic two-run defeat at Edgbaston. Then they were overjoyed to leave Manchester with a draw after a heroic rearguard action by Ricky Ponting but in the end, as Langer well remembers – he topped the Australian batting averages in that series – the Ashes would be lost.
Tinkering
Langer and Tim Paine have been tinkering with their team. Usman Khawaja has been dropped, which is a surprise and a luxury not available to England.
The constitution of Australia’s pace attack is probably of more interest to England. The Australians must decide between Peter Siddle and Mitchell Starc. Within their camp this has become more of a tactical dilemma than a question of form. Until now they have been keen on maintaining a tight, disciplined pace attack that bowls dry. This has meant Siddle has been included in two of the three Tests (he was rotated out of the side at Headingley).
Meanwhile Starc has looked on from afar, not quite like Achilles, but he is a formidable Ashes warrior, capable of causing devastation at considerable speed. He may not be quite so miserly as the others but now the expectation is that Starc will be recalled on a surface which is likely to be the quickest encountered in the series so far.
More surprisingly England have shuffled their pack by replacing Chris Woakes with Somerset’s Craig Overton, who will be embarking on his fourth Test match.
Craig is the older of the Overton twins, slower than Jamie, but more reliable and the same height (6ft 5in). Woakes has had a busy summer, excelling in the latter stages of the World Cup, and he has bowled respectably enough in the series, taking nine wickets, as well as contributing some valuable runs, though he was not at his best with the bat at Headingley.
Overton has leapfrogged both Woakes and Sam Curran. His batting is not so effective as Curran’s but his ability to gain surprising bounce may be seen as more effective at Old Trafford. Moreover Root may feel the need for a workhorse in his attack, a role unsuitable for the others.
Best option
It is imperative that Jofra Archer is used as a shock rather stock bowler; Stuart Broad cannot be expected to bowl too many of the dirty overs; while Ben Stokes, despite delivering 24 overs at Headingley from the Rugby Stand End, interrupted only by the close of play and four deliveries from Archer, has other duties to perform.
The thinking must be Overton is the best option to maintain control while the others are resting. However, he has only played one red-ball match since July 17th.
Overton has yet to experience anything other than defeat in his three Tests so far; his Somerset colleague, Jack Leach, who is about to play his eighth Test, has never lost in an England shirt. So something has to give.
So far the series has been evenly contested except that England have outstripped Australia in their use of DRS and that has been significant; it would be more satisfactory if the Ashes is now decided by one team playing superior cricket. – Guardian
