MOTOR SPORT: Justin Hynes on formula one's fight to stay at the top of the pile

Melbourne on a Wednesday afternoon. After days of rain that have been gratefully received by a city parched by the worst drought in years, temperatures are slowly beginning to rise. The lake at Albert Park glitters in the midday sun, the asphalt of the temporary race circuit that snakes through the suburban grassland radiates waves of shimmering heat, carrying the scent of warm oil and rubber.

To a soundtrack of relentless hammering as banners and marquees are erected, the barometer of Formula One is matching the atmosphere. The heat is on, the pressure is building. Sunday will be the sound of a sport heaving a massive sigh of relief or the beginnings of a financial death rattle that will see Formula One crash from its exalted position as the world's second most popular sport to the relative ghetto it occupied in its formative years, the preserve of the dilettante racer and the die-hard race fan.

Somewhere in the middle of the two extremes is new-look Formula One. A clutch of new rules ram-raided into being by the sport's governing body in a bid to reacquaint the sport with its adrenaline-buzzed roots while maintaining its grip on the business of glamour, greed and excess. Shotgun qualifying, more points up for grabs, the outlawing of unpopular and untelevisual gizmos such as traction and launch control. Giving the sport back to the drivers and by extension the fans.

The FIA should be lauded for the moves, however forced they appear from the outside. Formula One in 2002 had all the action, excitement and watchability of crown green bowls. The whys and wherefores are long and complicated - a vicious mix of money, manufacturers, the FIA itself in its bull-headed pursuit of cossetted safety over rational measures to control speed, and finally the dominance of Michael Schumacher.

In the ensuing bout of finger-pointing much venom was directed at the money-bought dominance of Ferrari and Schumacher: a vapid piece of scapegoatism. The truth is that Schumacher, the finest racing driver of his generation, has been an exploiter of prevailing conditions. By aligning himself with the most powerful team, facilitating the importation of the best technological and strategic minds, flanking himself with the best non-threatening team-mate and grinding his way purposefully through five years of development to assemble the best chassis, engine and tyre combination, Schumacher and Ferrari simply used Formula One's 1990s bubble to steamroller their way to dominance.

Attracting the best mind and bodies through possession of the greatest rewards, financially and in trophy-winning potential, will eventually reveal success.

The times, however, have a-changed. The excess is being replaced with a new puritanism - though not without the agonising soul searching that goes with conversion - and Formula One has raised its corpulent frame off its laurels and is ushering the possibility of a stripped down, leaner, meaner championship.

However, despite the levelling of the playing field to some degree, notions of a Schumacher/Ferrari collapse should be dismissed. The FIA has taken a lawn roller to a rather large hill and the Scuderia's domination will not be flattened this year.

Ferrari and Schumacher have built momentum on the back of financial muscle and success. They have retained technical director Ross Brawn, chassis designer Rory Byrne and engine guru Paolo Martinelli and held onto Schumacher and Rubens Barrichello. They will not be easily dislodged.

The rules will upset their rule, however. While Schumacher is quick out of the box, he has never been a qualifier of the incendiary brilliance of an Ayrton Senna, or even a Juan Pablo Montoya. The champion's qualifying runs of last year were often a catalogue of minor errors and missed opportunities and his seven poles of 2002 were often the result of last ditch dismissals of Williams' Montoya.

The Colombian was aided last year by superb Michelin qualifying tyres but his six poles were usually the result of moments of pressure-induced genius. This year's Michelins are rumoured to be the equal of last year's in qualifying and more consistent over long periods, so Schumacher will have to up his qualifying game. Throw in the potential for rain, the calamitous effects of a momentary lapse of concentration and the likelihood that some backmarking and mid-grid teams will run light fuel loads and risk an early race pit stop in a bid to gain a top-10 start, and the Ferrari-Williams-McLaren front-three row hegemony should become the norm.

But while qualifying is likely to provide us with a radically changed grid line-up, the races will settle into the separation of men and boys. Backward grid positions have failed to hamper the team in red on previous occasions and it will be a similar story this year. The prospect of Ferrari starting 12th and finishing in the same position is again a wrong notion.

But such a distant start could well certainly hamper the champion if Williams and McLaren claim front-of-grid slots, whereby leads can be built and race strategy dictated. In this pursuit of diversity the championship will be aided by the renewed vigour of McLaren.

The Mercedes-powered team has been impressive in testing, even with its MP4-17D a development of its 2002 car which it will run until the new MP4-18 is competition ready at the San Marino Grand Prix. In Kimi Raikkonen the team has a Finn, the equal, if not in many ways the superior, of Mika Hakkinen. The former Sauber driver, in his first season at McLaren, beat out David Coulthard in qualifying by a 10-7 margin, and this despite Coulthard being in his eighth season at the Silver Arrows. Raikkonen, with a year of McLaren experience under his belt, should match those statistics and become Schumacher's closest rival.

Montoya cannot be ignored, though. The Colombian was ill-served by an intractable Williams FW24 last season and also by Michelin tyres that were no match, on most occasions, for the more versatile Bridgestones.

This year should be different. The Michelins are reportedly more consistent, Montoya will have more horses again from his top of the power chart BMW engine, and if Williams can iron out the rumoured aerodynamic idiosyncrasies of the new car, then he should be able to take the fight to Schumacher, Coulthard and Raikkonen. He should also comprehensively dismiss his own team-mate Ralf Schumacher.

Elsewhere? It's largely a case of as you were, though if prime movers were to be identified, Toyota so far seem to have the edge. This year's Sauber has been inconsistent in testing. Renault too, appear to have problems.

If those testing analyses transfer to the track then Toyota, for whom Olivier Panis has been superb in testing, could make the leap. Stealing fifth from Sauber, with the Swiss team moving up to fourth in place of Renault, could be possible.

So where does that leave Jordan? The short answer is with a fight on its hands. Arrayed around the Irish team are old Honda rivals BAR, and fellow Ford teams Jaguar and Minardi. And the odds on Jordan creeping ahead of those may not be too bad. BAR appear not to have emerged from the doldrums, and Honda still look to have failed to understand how to build a modern Formula One engine. Jaguar are still in turmoil. As for Minardi, well, Paul Stoddart may be one of the most praiseworthy principals in the paddock, but he won't turn his team into winners.

In those circumstances, and with points now being awarded down to eighth, Jordan, with Giancarlo Fisichella as their many-gifted spearhead, could sneak into points with greater regularity than their immediate rivals. On the right day, a podium may not even be beyond them.

Jordan-Ford

Championships: 0 (as manufacturer team)

GPs: 197 GP wins: 3

2002 position: 6th

Drivers: 11. Giancarlo Fisichella (Ita) GPs: 107. Titles: 0. GP wins: 0. Poles: 1. Fastest Laps: 1 12. Ralph Firman (Brit/Ire) GPs: 0. Titles: 0. GP wins: 0. Poles: 0. Fastest Laps: 0

This year is crucial for Jordan's long-term survival. They have an excellent engine in the Cosworth and look like they've got a tidy chassis. Fisichella is the team's ace in the hole.Jaguar

Racing Championships: 0 (as manufacturer team)

GPs: 51 GP wins: 0

2002 position: 7th

Drivers: 14. Mark Webber (Aus) GPs: 16. Titles: 0. GP wins: 0. Poles: 0. Fastest Laps: 0 15. Antonio Pizzonia (Br) GPs: 0. Titles: 0. GP wins: 0. Poles: 0. Fastest Laps: 0

Jaguar still appear to be in disarray, with no team principal appointed following the departure of Niki Lauda and early testing results from the R4 not looking too clever. Risky pairing won't help. BAR-Honda

Championships: 0 (as manufacturer team)

GPs: 67 GP wins: 0

2002 position: 8th

Drivers: 16. Jacques Villeneuve (Can) GPs: 116. Titles: 1. GP wins: 11. Poles: 13. Fastest Laps: 9 17. Jenson Button (Brit) GPs: 51. Titles: 0. GP wins: 0. Poles: 0. Fastest Laps: 0

Villeneuve enters the final year of his contract and needs to prove that the talent he showed at Williams in 1996-97 still exists after four fruitless years at BAR. Button needs to prove likewise.

Minardi

Championships: 0 (as manufacturer team)

GPs: 287 GP wins: 0

2002 position: 9th

Drivers: 18. Justin Wilson (Brit) GPs: 0. Titles: 0. GP wins: 0. Poles: 0. Fastest Laps: 0 19. Jos Verstappen (Hol) GPs: 91. Titles: 0. GP wins: 0. Poles: 0. Fastest Laps: 0

Ford power, the shape of the Cosworth spec previous to Jordan's engine, will boost Minardi's challenge this year, but it will still be a case of tail-end heroics for the strugglers. Toyota Racing

Championships: 0 (as manufacturer team)

GPs: 17 GP wins: 0

2002 position: 10th

Drivers: 20. Olivier Panis (Fra) GPs: 125. Titles: 0. GP wins: 1. Poles: 0. Fastest Laps: 0 21. Cristiano De Matta (Bra) GPs: 0. Titles: 0. GP wins: 0. Poles: 0. Fastest Laps: 0

Former Minardi designer Gustav Brunner has had his first real go at drawing a Toyota and the results are impressive. Panis looked exciting in testing and Toyota could secure a midfield berth. Ferrari

Championships: 12

GPs: 670 GP wins: 159

2002 position: 1st

Drivers: 1. Michael Schumacher (Ger) GPs: 178. Titles: 5. GP wins: 64. Poles: 50. Fastest Laps: 51 2. Rubens Barrichello (Bra) GPs: 164. Titles: 0. GP wins: 5. Poles: 6. Fastest Laps: 8

Ferrari's dominance won't be easily broken. Competition will be stiffer and Schumacher won't take a record sixth title as early as he took his fifth last year, but he will be champion again. Barrichello will once again amiably ride shotgun.

BMW-Williams

Championships: 9

GPs: 462 GP wins: 108

2002 position: 2nd

Drivers: 3. Juan Pablo Montoya (Colombia) GPs: 34. Titles: 0. GP wins: 1. Poles: 10. Fastest Laps: 6 4. Ralf Schumacher (Germany) GPs: 100. Titles: 0. GP wins: 4. Poles: 1. Fastest Laps: 6

The FW25 didn't impress in early testing but progress has been made and, with BMW power, the British team should tussle hard with McLaren for championship second. Montoya will become undisputed team leader.

McLaren-Mercedes

Championships: 8

GPs: 543 GP wins: 135

2002 position: 3rd

Drivers: 5. David Coulthard (Sco) GPs: 141. Titles: 0. GP wins: 12. Poles: 12. Fastest Laps: 18 6. Kimi Raikkonen (Fin) GPs: 34. Titles: 0. GP wins: 0. Poles: 0. Fastest Laps: 1

After a dismal 2002, McLaren and particularly Mercedes look to be back on track, with a new car to be introduced at San Marino. With the right machinery at his disposal expect Kimi Raikkonen to become Schumacher's nearest challenger.

Renault

Championships: 0 (as manufacturer team)

GPs: 140 GP wins: 15

2002 position: 4th

Drivers: 7. Jarno Trulli (Ita) GPs: 95. Titles: 0. GP wins: 0. Poles: 0. Fastest Laps: 0 8. Fernando Alonso (Spa) GPs: 17. Titles: 0. GP wins: 0. Poles: 0. Fastest Laps: 0

Renault, off the pace in testing, aren't helped by question marks over Trulli, who has yet to dispel the brilliant qualifier/questionable racer reputation he earned at Jordan. His new team-mate could be the star of the show here.

Sauber-Petronas

Championships: 0 (as man team)

GPs: 163 GP wins: 0

2002 position: 5th

Drivers: 9. Nick Heidfeld (Ger) GPs: 50. Titles: 0. GP wins: 0. Poles: 0. Fastest Laps: 0 10. Heinz Harald Frentzen (Ger) GPs: 141. Titles: 0. GP wins: 3. Poles: 2. Fastest Laps: 6

Frentzen (in the last chance saloon) and Heidfeld (gunning for Coulthard's drive at McLaren in 2004) will be looking to bury each other. Expect Frentzen to shade it. Sauber will remain one of the grid's most consistent performers.