Munster's home is their fortress

ON RUGBY: No doubt John Kingston incurred the wrath of some one-eyed Munster supporters by having the temerity to suggest Munster won't reach their Holy Grail of winning the Heineken Cup. He reckons Leicester are the best side in Europe. English bias of course. Well, no, not exactly.

In fact, he stressed, "I'll put my cards on the table, I spent two years over here, loved it, and I'd love to see Munster win it, ahead of Leicester and Bath. But I'm not sure. I do think at the moment that Leicester are the better side, having seen the two at close quarters. I think Leicester are absolutely outstanding."

His doubts stem from Munster's ability to win both a semi-final on neutral territory and also a final in the Millennium Stadium. To that end, Kingston says it's imperative Munster earn a home quarter-final at Thomond Park.

"I think that home advantage for Munster is absolutely crucial and I think they have a really difficult game in France next week. That's a monster, monster game for them next week because it will dictate whether they get home advantage or not."

And realistically it will too. Admittedly, Munster could still top the group in defeat, provided they have scored more tries than Castres or have matched the home side try for try but have lost by less than the five-point margin in their Thomond Park win last October.

However, the bar is higher this season, and 10 points (no matter how much they boost their current try tally of 16) may not be sufficient to earn a home quarter-final.

Historically there has always been a two-to-one ratio of home wins over away wins in this competition, and this season has been no exception, with home wins outnumbering away wins by 40 to 17. One Six Nations coach noted last season this was because most referees were "homers". When asked what were the factors in Munster's Thomond fortress Kingston said curtly: "You watch the gentleman with the whistle today. Home advantage is crucial. Home advantage is the key in soccer, isn't it? Rugby is such an interpretation game, it's not black and white.

"We look at a ruck, was he holding on? Was the tackler not getting away? Where do the (offside) lines lie? So if you've got support, and you've got encouragement and persuasion and noise, it's true whether it's Leicester or Montferrand or Munster, that home advantage is hugely important. Every team in that last eight is massively stronger at home than they are away."

In much of this Kingston is only stating the obvious. There hasn't been an away win in the quarter-finals since Brive beat Wasps in the last eight four seasons ago - the only away win at this stage of the competition in the cup's history.

Kingston couldn't envisage anybody beating Munster in their Thomond fortress, not even Leicester. The last visiting team to win there was Leinster in the interpros in December 1995, (six years and a day before last month's Celtic League final) and Munster have never lost a European tie at Thomond Park (winning 12 out of 12 there).

Their only defeat in 20 home times in Europe was against Cardiff in Cork four seasons ago and Saturday's record European win constituted their 17th successive home win in all competitions since Leinster beat them in Dooradoyle four seasons ago.

Yet even that pales in comparison to Leicester's record at Welford Road where, against Calvisano on Saturday, they eclipsed a club landmark set in 1897 of 34 successive home wins in all competitions since Leinster beat them two seasons ago. That was a "dead rubber" for Leicester, and constitutes their only home defeat in their last 50 matches at Welford Road. Cardiff, another hugely consistent outfit in Europe, have only tasted defeat three times in their last 69 matches at the Arms Park in all competitions.

Leinster will be just as mindful of the need to earn a home quarter-final, although the word emanating from ERC is that special dispensation may be given to the Celtic League champions to have a home quarter-final in Lansdowne Road - and so not have the ground ruled out as a possible "neutral" venue. That would create a dilemma though, as for the first time in their history the province have built up something of a fortress themselves at Donnybrook, where they are unbeaten in 17 competitive games since Munster won there three seasons ago.

According to Keith Wood, who has won and lost at Thomond Park in the European Cup, the Thomond factor is more pronounced in its positive effect on the Munster psyche than having any huge impact on visiting teams.

"I don't think they (Harlequins) were intimidated. I think a lot of that is a fallacy of how intimidating this place is. This place is great but what is more important than the intimidation of the opposition is the fact that Munster don't believe that they'll lose here. That is the most important factor. They just don't believe they'll lose, they believe they'll play well, they believe they owe it to the fans and the fans actually demand it, which is a great situation to be in."

Wood, having been involved in those memorable wins away to Saracens, Castres and Toulouse two seasons ago, sounds a mite more hopeful of their chances of winning away. "Munster have the ability to win away more than most teams. But down here they have a significant advantage because of the self-belief that is held either within the walls of Thomond Park or the guys themselves."

However, Munster haven't scaled the heights of those aforementioned away performances en route to the Twickenham final, and interestingly Declan Kidney, whose protectiveness of his own players normally prohibits even the mildest of rebukes, admitted in the wake of Saturday's win: "we haven't been firing on all cylinders.

"They are good enough. They haven't played as well this season as they can play which I think actually augurs well for them. I don't think that's a criticism of them. I think they can hopefully get their game up to the level that will be necessary. We were poor but Munster will have to play a lot better to progress."