Much-changed Leinster still have edge in this encounter

RUGBY: Leinster v UlsterNO REST for the victors or the vanquished. Ireland's two European Cup quarter-finalists come head to head at the RDS this evening, one of them on a high seeking to maintain a twin assault, the other desperate to assuage their disappointment and sustain their only hope of silverware. As end-of-season proverbial eight-pointers go, this is right up there.

Ulster have, arguably, marginally the more elbow room in terms of reaching the semi-finals, but such are the tight margins with the three Welsh contenders, that for either Leinster or Ulster to maintain their hopes of a home semi-final (and thereby avoid Munster and Thomond Park at that stage) victory is imperative.

Coming hard on the heels of last weekend’s bruisers against the best of the English Premiership, this is a test of both squads’ resilience and resourcefulness. Viewed in that light, Leinster (as they perhaps had to, given their Euro ambitions) have dug more deeply in making seven changes.

In the backs, Fergus McFadden and Eoin O’Malley form a new midfield to replace Gordon D’Arcy and Brian O’Driscoll, who sustained shoulder injuries last week, while Isaac Boss replaces Eoin Reddan at scrumhalf.

Heinke van der Meuwe and Stan Wright come in for Cian Healy and Mike Ross in the frontrow, Devin Toner replaces Nathan Hines and Shane Jennings is back from a two-month absence to take over from Seán O Brien at openside.

By contrast, Ulster have made only two enforced changes, with Tim Barker and young Craig Gilroy (already their leading try-scorer in the league this season) coming in for Johann Muller, who sustained a dead leg against Northampton, and winger Simon Danielli (shoulder).

There are a host of intriguing match-ups for the Ireland management to cast their eye over (such as Andrew Trimble v Luke Fitzgerald) as well as a host of likely lads (including Nevin Spence and O’Malley) who, if they don’t travel to the next World Cup, may well travel to future ones.

Ulster come to the RDS on their best run of form in years, having won six league matches on the trot. Ironically, they probably eclipsed those performances against Northampton last week with some impressive back play – the return of Ian Humphreys having re-ignited them.

While there’s plenty of attacking talent on display, such is the familiarity between the Irish sides they often cancel each other to a degree in these derbies.

But while they are unlikely to do a number on Ulster up front like Northampton did, Leinster should have a good set-piece platform.

The recent history of this fixture and Leinster’s stunning home form also means they have to start as favourites.

Aside from losing five of their last six clashes in this series, Ulster have not won in Dublin since a 26-15 victory over Leinster at Donnybrook in 1999.

Unbeaten at home this season, Leinster have won their last 24 regular season home games in the league, but many have been tight, as this one might be.

LEINSTER: I Nacewa; S Horgan, E O'Malley, F McFadden, L Fitzgerald; J Sexton, I Boss; H van der Merwe, R Strauss, S Wright, L Cullen (capt), D Toner, K McLaughlin, S Jennings, J Heaslip. Replacements: J Harris-Wright, C Healy, M Ross, N Hines, S O'Brien/D Ryan, E Reddan, I Madigan, D Kearney.

ULSTER: A D'Arcy; A Trimble, N Spence, P Wallace, C Gilroy; I Humphreys, R Pienaar; T Court, R Best (capt), BJ Botha, T Barker, D Tuohy, R Diack, C Henry, P Wannenburg. Replacements: A Kyriacou, P McAllister, B Young, N McComb, W Faloon, P Marshall, D Cave, C Gaston.

Referee: Pascal Gauzere (France).

Last five meetings: (07-08) Leinster 29 Ulster 0. (08-09) Ulster 13 Leinster 21; Leinster 32 Ulster 6. (09-10) Ulster 16 Leinster 14; Leinster 15 Ulster 3. (10-11) Ulster 13 Leinster 30.

Leading try scorers– Leinster: Shane Horgan 5. Ulster: Craig Gilroy 7.

Leading points scorers– Leinster: Isa Nacewa 142, Jonathan Sexton 75. Ulster: Ruan Pienaar 112, Ian Humphreys 61.

Betting: 1/4 Leinster, 22/1 Draw, 11/4 Ulster. Handicap odds: (Ulster + 8pts) 10/11 Leinster, 22/1 Draw, 10/11 Ulster.

Forecast: Leinster to win.