For an insight into how tomorrow's Church & General National Football League final is seen in Offaly, take the pub lottery in which predictions of the score are ventured. It has attracted a vast number of responses plumping for the home county by a narrow margin.
This is explained, according to the man organising it, by the locals' anxiety not to be seen backing against their county. Furthermore, he points out, the few responses that tip it in the other direction are from "club members, people who know their football".
Whereas the meeting of Derry and Offaly is unlikely to surprise people whichever way it goes, there are good reasons for slightly favouring the Ulster team. Experience is the most obvious starting point, albeit not in the sense that the longer-serving half of Derry's team have been through League finals several times before; Offaly actually have greater recent experience of big-match situations in Croke Park, having played before three full or nearly-full houses at headquarters within the last 12 months.
The experience that suggests Derry can win a third title in four years and a fourth this decade is simply their knack of attaining a good level of competitive performance at this stage of the year.
Offaly are in a different position. Still within the first year of celebrity, the county established a pattern last year of using the league as part of their championship build-up and did so very effectively, developing momentum from a narrow defeat by Kildare in the quarter-finals.
The team has more room for manoeuvre this year with their championship debut a month from this weekend. Last year their summer began in early May and featured three matches in the Leinster preliminary pool before they even reached a first round.
In terms of perception Offaly also have less to lose. The team has enjoyed a good campaign and remains unbeaten. Defeat tomorrow won't affect their status as a coming team. Derry, on the other hand, can't do anything which will cast their championship ambitions in a better light. In 1995 and '96, there were plenty of people coming out of Croke Park after the League wins over Donegal willing to declare it hardly worth playing the championship such was Derry's likely superiority. Even if they win by a mile, judgement will be suspended until the championship.
The Ulster team's credentials this campaign are reasonably solid. A poor pre-Christmas run reflected injury problems and Dungiven's run in the club championship. Since the resumption, form has been good.
In the knockout stages, the performances have been sound with the defeat of Mayo impressive and the dismissal of Monaghan competent despite the awfulness of the match as a spectacle.
Derry are unlikely to allow Offaly as much freedom as Donegal did in the semi-final and consequently a tighter afternoon's football is on the cards. Both sets of forwards have lively inside lines and the question of who delivers most into their respective full forwards will decide the match.
Anthony Tohill and Dermot Heaney are a stronger, more physical, midfield than Ciaran McManus and Jim Grennan but on the basis that the area will be so firmly packed - by Derry as much as Offaly - that aerial domination will be hard to achieve, the performance of the half-lines will be more important.
This is a sector where Derry can match Offaly with quick and athletic ball winners. If precedent is anything to go by, Derry will operate on a stripped-down full-forward line with Joe Brolly and Joe Cassidy isolated on the inside. Benny Murray, the injured Seamus Downey's replacement, played centre-forward with the under-21s and is an obvious candidate for a deeper role.
Offaly's full-back trial of John Ryan will be thoroughly executed if the dual player is faced with the dilemma of a roving full forward. The team's defence hasn't been as tight as last year and both Galway and Donegal created plenty of chances in the quarter-finals and semi-finals but the former's prodigality and the latter's over-dependence on Tony Boyle limited the damage.
Derry took scores efficiently against Monaghan - without any significant advantage in chances created - and despite Eamonn Burns's injury, still have at least three reliable scoring forwards.
At the other end, Offaly's attack will benefit from Peter Brady's return, despite having in his absence against Donegal given its best display since winning the Leinster final. But they will all operate on shorter rations as Derry pose a similar threat to Mayo's challenge last August. Without a good supply, the sharpest of forwards can't function and that may be the decisive consideration tomorrow.
The first of this year's All-Ireland under-21 semi-finals takes place this evening with Galway meeting Laois in Longford at 6.30. This match's timing is unhelpful for Galway who had two men given the line in last weekend's Connacht final win over Leitrim. Both Tomas Meehan's and Derek Reilly's suspensions deprive the team of important players and won't help the task of playing the All-Ireland favourites. Galway will test Laois but the midlanders should pass.
Derry: E McCloskey; K McKeever (capt.), SM Lockhart, AN Other; P McFlynn, H Downey, F McCusker; A Tohill, D Heaney; G McGill, G Coleman, D Dougan; J Brolly, B Murray, J Cassidy.
Offaly: P Kelly; C Daly, J Ryan, D Foley; J Kenny, F Cullen (capt.), J Brady; C McManus, J Grennan; C Quinn, J Stewart, R Mooney; V Claffey, R Malone, P Brady.
