Group D: The permutations: Luck will always play a part in winning the World Cup. As often as not, it is bad luck that counts; a mistimed tackle, a wayward penalty kick. For the first round matches of this edition, Italy thought the gods were against them, having had three goals disallowed by linesmen's dubious decisions.

At half-time, they were 1-0 down to a sweet goal from Jared Borgetti, Croatia were level with pointless Ecuador, and the Azzurri were staring elimination in the face. Those scores at full-time would have seen Italy on the plane home and they would have deserved it. Short of inspiration from their totem Francesco Totti, and with their three-man defence, particularly the captain Paolo Maldini, looking vulnerable, it was difficult to see where qualification would come from.

And then, early in the second-half, Italy's luck changed, with redemption coming from a most unlikely source: Edison Mendez's winning strike for Ecuador. Indeed, with goal difference against Croatia having lurched in Italy's favour, Alessandro del Piero's late equaliser was not required for his team to progress - but the Azzurri proclaimed its significance all the same.

"It was a very important goal," said coach Giovanni Trapattoni, "and it was a great reaction from the players. I think this shows the team are mature; in such a situation they might have lost their heads but they kept going. It was a big goal for our emotions, for our morale. It will be a different World Cup from now on."

Trapattoni was not only praising his side. "Allow me to use a phrase I often use - justice and God exist, I believe that." Asked about the fact he poured holy water on to the bench at the end, he replied: "You know I'm a believer. God has answered my prayers."

Now that Trapattoni's side have still qualified for the last 16, their rivals will surely wonder whether fortune will favour the typically slow-starting Azzurri for the rest of the tournament.

Italy finished second in Group G, three points behind Mexico. They will go on to play the winners of Group D - any one of three from South Korea, the United States and Portugal. If they progress to the quarter-finals they will meet the winners of Ireland's tie with Spain. There is not a World Cup winner among those countries, and only Portugal has ever reached a semi-final, in 1966.

Trappatoni's players were as confident as his coach. Damiano Tomassi insisted Italy had had the better of the second half and Gianluca Zambrotta claimed: "We got our just reward in the last minutes of the match."

Such confidence is indicative of the attitude of European teams to their less glamorous cousins. But it was not an accurate reflection of the match, with Mexico dominant after Borgetti's opener in the 34th minute. A twisting header on the edge of the six-yard box left Maldini floundering and Gianluigi Buffon a spectator.

Cuauhtemoc Blanco conducted the tempo for the Mexicans, and was ably assisted by the wingers Jesus Arellano and Ramon Morales, and the trio ran riot after the restart. They should have scored again, Arellano seeing one delightful move end with a scrambled clearance off the line.

Trappatoni's revamped tactics, which had seen Fillipo Inzaghi drafted alongside Christian Vieri and Christian Panucci pushed to the unfamiliar position of left wing-back, had failed, even if Inzaghi had an early strike disallowed for offside. Television replays suggested his shot should have stood. But the coach recognised the faults and brought Francesco Coco on for Panucci, Vincenzo Montella on for Inzaghi, while Del Piero replaced the struggling Totti.

The substitutes injected renewed vigour into Italy's play. Del Piero's goal was well-crafted, Montella curling a cross almost over his shoulder into the area where the Juventus striker met it smartly with his head. The stand-off that was the rest of the match suggested everyone had been briefed of Croatia's failure.

Meanwhile, Maldini overtook the former Germany midfielder Lothar Matthaus to set a record of minutes played in World Cup finals in yesterday's game.

Maldini now has a total 2,055 minutes, surpassing Matthaus's 2,052.

SUBSTITUTES

Mexico: Garcia for Morales (76 mins); Caballero for Rodriguez (76 mins); Palencia for Borgetti 80 mins).

Italy: Montella for Inzaghi (56 mins); Coco for Panucci (63 mins); Del Piero for Totti (78 mins).

YELLOW CARDS

Mexico: Arellano, Perez.

Italy: Panucci, Cannavaro, Totti, Zambrotta, Montella.

Guardian Service