RUGBY:IT AIN'T over till the fat lady sings. Maintaining the trend of the weekend, there were 80th-minute tries in all three of yesterday's Heineken Cup games, and two of them had a fairly dramatic effect on the pool standings.
Jonathan Davies' try especially, and Rhys Priestland's conversion with the last kick of the game for the Scarlets at Stradey Park denied London Irish even a losing bonus point, and at a stroke Leinster's qualification threshold had been lowered considerably.
Coupled with Northampton's 34-0 bonus-point win over Perpignan, courtesy of Jon Clarke's 81st minute try, and Toulouse's 33-21 bonus-point win over Harlequins, which ensured they have joined Biarritz as the only qualifiers for the last eight so far, it leaves another 16 teams still in the hunt, mathematically.
All but two of them are entitled to entertain genuine hopes of a place in the quarter-finals of the Heineken Cup, or at any rate the consolation of a place in the Amlin Challenge Cup, where Connacht have already secured their place and can nail down a home tie by beating Olympus Madrid next weekend.
After another Irish four-timer, an Irish presence is also guaranteed in the Heineken Cup knock-out stages, with Munster or Leinster assured of at least being one of the two runners-up. Indeed, if Munster beat Northampton at Thomond Park, Leinster would also be through as in that scenario 20 points would assure them of one of the two best runners-up places.
More pertinently though, as the current top two ranked sides, the Irish heavyweights will be looking to ensure home quarter-finals, which they can achieve next weekend with victories in their Anglo-Irish pool finales.
For their part, Ulster need a bonus-point win away to Bath next Saturday and hope Stade Français pick up nothing from their trip to Edinburgh to qualify as pool winners. They could go through as one of the best runners-up, but that looks unlikely, though a win over Edinburgh would give them a very good chance of a place in the Challenge Cup, and were it to come with a bonus point it would guarantee that much.
With half an hour to go in Llanelli, it had all been going to plan. London Irish led 22-10 and had three tries, thereby leaving them with 30 minutes to acquire the fourth try and bonus-point win which would have seen them draw level with Leinster in Pool Six on 20 points. Instead, the Scarlets roared back into the game with three converted and unanswered tries for an astonishing 31-22 win to complete an improbable double over Irish.
The net effect is Irish now need a bonus point win over Leinster in their Twickenham showdown next Saturday while also denying Leinster anything from the game to top the group.
In other words, either a bonus-point defeat or denying Irish four tries would be sufficient to put the holders into the quarter-finals as group winners.
Admittedly, defeat next Saturday would almost certainly condemn Leinster to an away quarter-final and London Irish’s stunning defeat arguably makes them more dangerous next Saturday as it leaves them fighting for their lives in Twickenham. It could be that come kick-off and, say, Munster have beaten Northampton, that Irish will know a win of any hue will at least earn them one of the two best runners-up places.
Nevertheless, following those opening night jitters against the English side, Leinster would have gladly taken a 20-point haul going into their last game and a five-point buffer over the Premiership side. “It’s worked out all right for us,” admitted Michael Cheika after Brian O’Driscoll’s 80th-minute try had secured a bonus point in the 27-10 win over Brive.
“We’ve had a bit of luck along the way as well. It’s put us in a position to be able to qualify, maybe even get a home quarter-final if we can get a win. Irish probably thought they were finished with us after round one but it’s going to go down to the wire.”
Nor does going through as one of the best runners-up particularly interest Cheika. Next weekend is all about securing what would only be Leinster’s third home quarter-final in the competition’s history.
“Since round one we’ve been on red alert because we’d used up our get-out-of-jail-free card, y’know? If I closed my eyes and think about my time here, I still haven’t delivered a home quarter-final to the club and our fans. We’re really committed to trying to deliver that and I think if we win next weekend we’ll get one. So we’ve got to make sure we pay back.”
Nor was he going along with the popularly held theory that the switch to Twickenham will assist Leinster. “I don’t think it affects things much. It’s a ground. Two teams. Same idea. There will probably be more supporters there from both teams. But we’re still going to London and we’ve still got to play them away from Dublin.
“Obviously there’s a bit of extra width, but there’s no secret to the way London Irish play. If Reading is a small soccer pitch, they still play with plenty of width on it.
“There are a few small issues there – big in-goal areas, extra bit of width, but I’ve got a feeling it’s going to be won in the tighter exchanges, as opposed to the wider channels.”
Following on from their 44-7 win against Treviso which secured back-to-back bonus point wins on the road, Munster host the only side they have never beaten in the Heineken Cup, Northampton having won the 2000 final in Twickenham by 9-8 and won the opening pool meeting 31-27 at Franklin’s Gardens.
The cock-a-hoop English high flyers are the form team in Europe; yesterday’s win over Perpignan being their 10th in a row in all competitions.
It is the fifth time in eight years that Thomond Park has hosted a last weekend Anglo-Irish pool decider, with Munster having won four of them but lost to Leicester in their only Cup defeat at their Limerick fortress three years ago.
