Leinster's sums to add up

Leinster can end Munster's three-year reign as Guinness Interprovincial champions in Galway this evening (kick-off 6.30), though mathematically they would need to supplement a win over Connacht with a bonus point to put the title out of Munster's reach when the latter travel to Belfast on Friday evening.

Furthermore, as most of their more experienced players know only too well, the Sportsground has been something of a nemesis for Leinster over the last decade or so. Granted, Leinster romped to a 53-8 win there two seasons ago, but that apart, Connacht have won five of the last six interpro meetings in Galway dating back to 1992.

To compound Leinster's sense of unease, they are without 13 of their contracted squad members, with most of the damage being amongst their backs. The likes of Girvan Dempsey, Denis Hickie, Shane Horgan, Nathan Spooner, Gordon D'Arcy and Adam Magro have all been ruled out, as have the departed Bob Casey, the departing Trevor Brennan and the injured Gavin Hickie.

Even so, Leinster travel with pretty much a full-strength pack and though the backline has a makeshift look to it, with Brian O'Meara switching to outhalf as one of three scrumhalves in their line-up, any outfit containing the likes of Peter McKenna, Simon Keogh and Brian O'Driscoll still has a potent, pacey look to it.

John McWeeney is also a fairly experienced and prolific Leinster winger by this stage, while David Quinlan made a highly auspicious debut in Musgrave Park last time out. "There's still lots of pace in their backs but the (Leinster) pack is my worry," admitted Connacht coach Steph Nel.

For their part, Connacht are missing Darren Yapp, Marnus Uijs, Des Dillon and Gavin Duffy (who is rested for this summer's U-21 World Cup in South Africa).

Hence they make three changes from the team beaten by a point at home to Ulster last time out, with Eric Elwood returning at outhalf and Mark McHugh switching to full-back, Gerry Flannery replaces Uijs while Paul Neville returns in a reshuffled backline missing the injured and Leinster-bound Dillon.

Of Dillon's impending switch, Nel said: "There's nothing I can do about that. I just hope for the kid's sake he's going to play games because it's no use to him if he's sitting on the bench." Despite that tug of war, the mutual respect between Nel and Matt Williams after their stint together with the Irish As was palpable yesterday, Williams describing Nel as "the coach of the season. What Connacht have done this season has been extraordinary".

Nel, meantime, commented: "the brand of rugby Leinster have been producing this season has made them the champagne team of Irish rugby and we're under no illusions about the task facing us." Yet such has been the familiarity and competitiveness between the provinces this season that the four games have yielded just 11 tries, with only one bonus point for tries scored.

Last season a six-series championship finished in early November but though the return to three series and the reshuffling of the fixtures seems to have devalued the interpros, Leinster will be seeking their first title since 1998 and Williams maintained: "It matters a lot. I know you guys have been talking it down but among the players it's very, very important. You go into competitions and you want to win them."

CONNACHT: M McHugh; T Robinson, P Duignan, T Allnutt, W Munn; E Elwood, E Reddan; D McFarland (capt), G Flannery, P Bracken, D Browne, R Frost, P Neville, C Rigney, J O'Connor. Replacements: R McCormack, AN Other, A Maher, M Swift, C Keane, M McPhail, J Ferris.

LEINSTER: P McKenna; S Keogh, B O'Driscoll, D Quinlan, J McWeeney; B O'Meara, B Willis; R Corrigan (capt), S Byrne, P Wallace, L Cullen, M O'Kelly, E Miller, V Costello, K Gleeson. Replacements: N Treston, P Smyth, A McCullen, D O'Brien, F Campion, K Lewis, B Burke. Referee: S McDowell (IRFU).

Formguide: Connacht _ lost 19-40 v Munster (a); lost 17-18 v Ulster (h). Leinster bt Ulster 31-9 (h), Drew 6-6 with Munster (a). Last three seasons: (1998-99) Leinster 29 Connacht 24, Connacht 24 Leinster 23. (1999-00) Leinster 22 Connacht 19, Connacht 8 Leinster 53. (2000-01) Leinster 21 Connacht 15, Connacht 22 Leinster 20. Odds (Paddy Powers): 11/4 Connacht 18/1 Draw, 1/4 Leinster.