Leinster must win and get a favour

By recording the first away win in Pool A against Glasgow Caledonians last night, Stade Francais not only assured themselves of first place in the group, but left Leinster in need of a win in Welford Road (today, 3.0, Network 2) and favourable results elsewhere to qualify for the last eight.

The only quarter-final avenue now open to Leinster is via one of the two best runners-up slots. Aside from beating Leicester, Leinster will probably need to boost their try tally by four or more to overhaul the likes of Llanelli, while hoping that the Welsh team lose at home to Wasps in today's Pool Three decider. Alternatively, Cardiff could fail to beat Harlequins in Pool Five tomorrow.

First things first though, and the minor detail of beating Leicester in their imposing citadel. Despite the Heineken Cup having gone fairly flat for the tigers, a standard five-figure attendance is expected at the best supported ground in the English club game. Leicester also boast the longest unbeaten home run of any English club, dating back to December 30th, 1998, when Newcastle were the last visitors to win here. To this you must add the European Cup's pronounced sway towards the home team, which has been excessive in this pool.

Based on head-to-heads in this group, the effect of being at home or away can be measured at 31/32 points on the old "swingometer". Applied rigidly today, this would be translated from a reversal of Leinster's seven-point win at Donnybrook into a 24/25 point win for Leicester today; that would reflect the 47-22 victory margin enjoyed by the tigers at Welford Road two seasons ago.

Thankfully rugby is eminently less predictable than late night election results. For starters, Leicester are not quite the celebrity-studded vintage of recent yore, and as English superiority complexes might have diminished in these Anglo-Irish contests, so Leinster's inferiority complex will surely have been dispelled by having won two of the sides' four Cup clashes.

The current Leicester crop are more cub-like than fully fledged kings of the jungle, without a domineering presence at numbers eight or 10, a la Dean Richards or Joel Stransky, and have lately been deprived of key leaders of the pack such as Martin Johnson and Neil Back.

Furthermore, Richards delayed his team selection until today pending the outcome of last night's match. That, coupled with the realisation that they have two chances of progress - slim and none - and the onset of next Saturday's English league six-pointer with Saracens does not point to an outfit who are utterly single-minded about the task at hand.

Leinster, facing a win-or-end-of-the-season scenario, certainly ought to be and in this they could have a discernible mental edge. You also sense that at last their young and talented component parts are starting to blend.

Seeking a first quarter-final berth in four years, no team of Mike Ruddock's has ever gone into a European Cup game unchanged for the third game running and seeking a third successive win. Accordingly, he is reluctant to adopt a "blase" approach and will instead "stick to what we've been doing".

So, once more, the big rumblers such as Victor Costello, Shane Horgan and John Mc Weeney will set up the targets for the support, thereby setting up quick possession for Emmet Farrell to attack the gain line and give Brian O'Driscoll and co space to work in.

Considering they played only in patches last week at the beginning and end, yet conjured five of six tries through a quintet of their pacy young backs, Leinster's scoring potential is obvious.

As critical, therefore, will be a good opening 10 minutes or so, and the hard-working blanket defence of last week, with none of the panicky loss of focus which so nearly cost them last week and assuredly will today.

The presence of Jim Fleming as referee, and Welford Road's ability to sway the man in the middle (as was the case with Clayton Thomas here in the Stade Francais game), is a minor concern, but Ruddock can only do his damnedest to put all other considerations out of his players' minds.

All week he has stressed Leinster's sprinkling of Test players of equal ability against their opponents, of results that compare equitably, and of "two sets of goalposts, a green pitch and 15 blokes against 15 blokes".

Despite the bookies odds reflecting the magnitude of the task and the weight of history against them, put like that, Leinster definitely have a chance. And even, as is likely, they do come up short, if Leinster can go down truly swinging they'll have come some way this season.