Ulster v Leinster; Ravenhill, 7.05pm. On TV: RTE 2, BBC:OVER 10,000 tickets have been sold for what is sure to be a typically impassioned, full-on derby a week before they each play in the Heineken Cup semi-finals. The risk of injury notwithstanding, this makes for a useful preparatory outing, although come kick-off it will be all about the here and now.
Having met three times last season, there could yet be another brace of end-of-season clashes this season as conceivably this could be a dress rehearsal for both a European finale in Twickenham and, as was the case last season, another League semi-final at the RDS.
In the context of tonight, Ulster’s need is the greater as they sit one place and one point outside the top four play-offs, and though competing on both fronts looks a bigger strain on the home side’s strength in depth, the nature of this contest – their last at Ravenhill this season – compels them to put their best foot forward.
Ulster’s only defeat at Ravenhill in their last 20 matches in all competitions was to Treviso in mid-October, while Leinster have suffered only one defeat in their last 24 games. Indeed, such has been the European champions’ remarkable campaign they have lost just twice this season, at home to Glasgow and the Ospreys, thus leaving them unbeaten away from home in 2011-12.
Hence, aside from reaching the semi-finals of the Heineken Cup for the fourth season in a row, Leinster have already secured top seeding and thus home advantage in the semi-finals of the Pro12 and, should they reach a third league final in a row, a home final as well.
Yet, despite having less at stake, Leinster are about four-fifths of the way towards full strength, as Joe Schmidt rests the three Heineken Cup quarter-final starters who played in last week’s thrashing of Edinburgh, namely Isa Nacewa (rested for only the fourth time this season), Gordon D’Arcy and Jamie Heaslip.
He thus recalls the other dozen who were rested or appeared off the bench last week. Eoin O’Malley was ruled out yesterday with a recurrence of his calf strain, so Fergus McFadden is retained for his 70th Leinster appearance, while an eighth start of the season for hugely promising Dominic Ryan means Seán O’Brien shifts across to number eight.
Of Leinster’s starting line-up, 13 are Irish qualified (11 of them internationals) and there are another six on the bench, of whom four are capped. Their liking for, and efficiency in “interpo” derbies this season has been striking, and having won the previous five they can become the first Irish side to complete a six-game clean sweep against their provincial rivals in one league campaign.
For his part, Brian McLaughlin has made nine personnel changes and a further two positional switches to the team which lost 21-26 to Connacht last weekend.
The influential John Afoa is suspended, while captain Rory Best, talisman Stephen Ferris and the in-form Dan Tuohy have been rested. Paddy Jackson is moved from inside centre to outhalf ahead of Ian Humphreys, who drops to the bench.
Tom Court reverts to his more effective position at loosehead prop after another trying outing at tighthead in Galway, with Declan Fitzpatrick makes a welcome return from a neck injury for his first game in almost five months.
So compared to the team which started and finished the Heineken Cup quarter-final win over Munster, Ulster are missing the aforementioned quintet, including half of their frontline pack.
As the leading try scorers in the League (Ulster have scored 51 to Leinster’s 46) this has the makings of a highly entertaining game.
Ulster’s only win over Leinster in their last 16 meetings since May 2004 was by 16-14 at Ravenhill in October 2009. Hence, Leinster have generally had more about them, and, nearer full-strength, would appear to have so again.
ULSTER: S Terblanche; A Trimble, D Cave, P Wallace, C Gilroy; P Jackson, R Pienaar; T Court, N Brady, D Fitzpatrick, J Muller (capt), L Stevenson, C Henry, W Faloon, P Wannenburg. Replacements: A Kyricaou, P McAllister, A Macklin, N McComb, R Diack, I Porter, I Humphreys, A D'Arcy.
LEINSTER: R Kearney; D Kearney, B O'Driscoll, F McFadden, L Fitzgerald; J Sexton, E Reddan; C Healy, R Strauss, M Ross, L Cullen (capt), B Thorn, K McLaughlin, D Ryan, S O'Brien. Replacements: S Cronin, H van der Merwe, N White, D Toner, S Jennings, I Boss, I Madigan, F Carr.
Referee: John Lacey(IRFU).
Betting(Paddy Powers): 13/10 Ulster, 18/1 Draw, 8/13 Leinster. Handicap (Ulster +3 pts) 10/11 Ulster, 18/1 Draw, 10/11 Leinster.
Forecast: Leinster to win.
