Is Dublin’s history against Kerry about destiny or bad timing?

The retirement took place at the weekend of Philip French, the distinguished film critic with London newspaper the Observer. As someone who had accumulated through more than half a century in journalism a formidable knowledge across the arts spectrum he managed nonetheless to wield it deftly and illuminatingly.

In a retirement question-and-answer session in Sunday's issue, film director Ken Loach asked him the obvious question: why are you retiring so early? French commented that it was a charming question but slightly side-stepped it by simply saying he had decided some time ago to go on his 80th birthday, which falls shortly.

The exchange reminded me of a conversation with Jim McCartan, the great Down player of the 1960s and father of current county manager James. It took place over 20 years ago in the run-up to the 1991 All-Ireland final in which James was involved as a player. I asked his father, twice Texaco Footballer of the Year, why he had retired before he was even 30. He said that a friend from Kerry – the father of Armagh All Star from the 1970s Paddy Moriarty – had put it best: "Better go and have people wondering why than hang around and have them asking why you haven't."

Timing is important. Philip French modestly but realistically said in answer to another question last Sunday, this time about the waning influence of print journalism, that he wasn’t “anything like as influential as my longest-serving predecessors Caroline Lejeune or Dilys Powell”.

The reference to the times in which you live and work reflects a context that is important in any walk of life.

Played against Kerry
Jim McCartan played against and beat Kerry on the two occasions the counties met in championship, the 1960 All-Ireland final and the following year's semi-final. His brother played in the 1968 All-Ireland win over Kerry and his son played, in 1991, on a Down team that again beat the Munster champions and 19 years later, managed another to do the same.

It’s one of the championship’s great jinxes. Kerry have lost every championship match played against Down. Yet everyone in the Ulster county would know that had they encountered the same opposition in virtually any year between 1968 and 1991, their record would have ended there and then.

There remains, however, enough of the mystical about this sequence to make Kerry people stop and think. Most recently, three years ago, Down were 3/ 1 outsiders and they still maintained the record.

On Sunday a full house at Croke Park will witness the latest instalment in football’s most mythologised fixture when Dublin face Kerry in the second All-Ireland semi-final. Will the outcome be governed by timing or myth?

The power of myth in Gaelic games was most pithily summarised in conversation with a colleague who said: “In the GAA teams that always beat teams, always beat them.”

It’s a clever evocation of the traditional power relationships in championship. It doesn’t mean that counties are destined to end up in headlocks like the one exercised by Down against Kerry but it goes to the heart of what is expected – by either side – in certain matches.

Counties with strong records against others are naturally more upbeat and confident and their opponents more vulnerable to the feeling that it’s not going to be their day.

Dublin's history against Kerry is daunting. The win in the All-Ireland final of two years ago was the county's first in 34 years – the best result in the previous nine meetings had been a draw in 2001 – and now Dublin have another statistic to chew on: the county has won successive championship matches against Kerry only once since the 1920s.

Recent matches
The two most recent matches are interesting because they went so heavily against expectation. Kerry were favourites two years ago but got caught whereas in 2009 Dublin's favouritism was a product of how poorly their opponents had been playing all summer rather than a genuine rush of enthusiasm.

Otherwise the sequence of results has been more than adequately explained by who had the better players. It’s true to say that Dublin through history have made uneasy favourites in this fixture and the two most recent occasions on which they held that status – 2009 and 1978 – they were annihilated.

The world of Gaelic games is currently almost taking for granted a Mayo-Dublin final. For anxious Dubliners it’s a queasy time. On paper they should be in that final and playing a part in what’s expected to be an epic finale to the season – but to what extent do Dublin really embrace their apparent superiority when facing rivals, who have historically yielded them just seven wins in 26 championship meetings; opponents, half of whom possess extensive All-Ireland medal collections?

Dublin manager Jim Gavin paid ritual respect to the traditions of the fixture at his media conference last week but his most interesting reference was an almost throwaway reflection to his own playing days.

“I didn’t play them, as through my era they were regrouping.”

In other words for much of Gavin’s playing career Kerry weren’t good enough. The message to be communicated is that whatever the overall history, the number of occasions on which Kerry have defeated apparently superior Dublin teams is a more manageable fraction of the whole sequence.

Will Sunday be another of those matches in which instead of delivering on their status as favourites, Dublin plunge down a rabbit hole? Or is this a Kerry team with too much mileage on the clock against higher-performance opponents?

Essentially, is this about timing or myth?
smoran@irishtimes.com