Irish people, and Irish sports people in particular, are optimists by nature. We thus face into every new Five Nations campaign with a great deal of hope, more often than not without any logical foundation. This year, however, that optimism does have quite a degree of foundation; it stems largely from the success of the provincial sides and, in particular, Ulster when competing against French opposition.

The form of most of the players playing for Ireland this afternoon has been particularly good in recent weeks, whereas the feedback from France is less optimistic, with a lot of their players reported to be carrying injuries.

The way the game has developed in recent years has, in my opinion, not suited French rugby. The primary emphasis now appears to be defence, and this is an area in which Ireland has improved greatly. South Africa, the most successful international side in the last few years, has attributed its run of success to its outstanding defence. It is much easier to improve the defence than the attack in a rugby team. The basic requirements for defence are organisation and commitment, allied to good tackling technique. This can be achieved easily by hard work.

To improve the attacking ability of a team also requires organisation, but, above all else, skill and football sense. While one might be able to improve on the level of skill, it is very hard to improve on football sense in players at international level.

The French tend to concentrate on their own game rather than on the opposition's. Their coach, Jean-Claude Skrela, is a purist who has always sought the complete game, which he was probably close to achieving in last year's sad demolition of Wales. Their problem, however, is that if the opposition get amongst them and don't let them play to their plan, they don't seem to have the ability on the pitch to change tactics.

This was certainly the case last year in Paris when Ireland could so easily have won. Because of that performance, and of Ulster's win, however, the French will be coming to Lansdowne Road in a far more cautious state of mind than they have done for a number of years.

I felt before the European Cup final that, if Ulster won, David Humphreys would probably get the nod ahead of Eric Elwood. I am surprised, however, that the selectors had not gone with a recognised place kicker as well as Humphreys. There is no doubt that Simon Mason's boot was the single most important factor in Ulster's success. Conor O'Shea is so much better as a player that he had to be included, but there was surely and argument for including Niall Woods on the left wing, which is in no way a criticism of Girvan Dempsey.

The selection of Woods would have the obvious advantage of having a recognised place-kicker, who has been kicking all season on the team (I know Humphreys is quite a respectable place-kicker, but the reality is that he hasn't been doing it thus far this season). The inclusion of Woods would also have kept together the London Irish back trio who, from all reports, have been fundamental to their success.

Certainly, Humphreys would not have been my choice in the past because of the vastly superior defensive ability of Eric Elwood, which is now essential in the outhalf position. But the Ulsterman has improved unrecognisably in this area.

Conor McGuinness was the outstanding Irish player in Paris last year, and that's saying something considering the overall performance. Unfortunately, he has been hampered by injury this season and I only hope that he can find some of last season's form for this international campaign. He will be subjected to a lot of close attention from the French in the early phases, because they won't have forgotten what he did to them last year. I would hope therefore that he is well protected by his forwards and does not take on too much himself in the opening exchanges.

I like the overall look of the Irish pack. Peter Clohessy is playing the best rugby of his life and has benefitted more than most from the professional approach. The England-based players have all been getting great reports, while Eric Miller seems to be relishing in his return here. Jeremy Davidson gets an opportunity to reclaim his place in the second row.

Victor Costello's form for St Mary's has been excellent and I suspect Victor has been waiting since the French match last year to make up for the loose pass near the end of the game when he could possibly have gone the whole way himself.

We should have the better line out, and we can disrupt the French in this area. If we can do that it will certainly upset their game plan, as so much of their game is based on attacking from line outs.

The French do appear to have the greater power in the backs, and I would watch out particularly for the full back, Emile N'tamack, who, as a winger, has done severe damage to Ireland in the past.

The temperament of Castaignede, at out-half, and Dourthe, in the centre, are suspect. They can be devastating when things are going well, but can also be upset quite easily. The real secret to French success, however, is their scrum-half, Carbonneau, who is very much their general.

The big worry I have about Ireland this afternoon is the same as I've had in recent internationals, i.e., where the scores are going to come from. Against South Africa we should have had a much greater return from the amount of possession we had and the amount of pressure which we put on. We panicked too much as we got close to the opposition line, and this has always been a fault. The pack is capable of scoring from line outs close to the opposition line. I hope Humphreys will be under instruction to use our full back and wings, in particular, in attacking positions.

The weather forecast, I understand, is not great, and certainly the French would not like wet and windy conditions. In summary, I think Ireland have a great chance of winning the match, but we will have to score tries - and not only through the forwards.