There are World Cup draws and there are World Cup draws. Whereas football's version contains the surprise element of, say, a general election in a real democracy which no opinion poll can accurately forecast, rugby's has all the unpredictability of a tinpot dictator announcing his return to power.
The group by group breakdown for rugby's fifth global finals has had more leaks than a soupstrainer these past few months and so yesterday's official "draw" contained far less intrigue than the Australasian battle for where it was actually going to take place.
As had been accurately forecast on several occasions, presuming they win their two qualifiers and advance to the finals as Europe 1, or the ninth ranked team, Ireland have been permed with Australia and Argentina and two other qualifiers, most likely Spain and Zimbabwe at this juncture.
It is a tough draw, with Ireland pitted against two of the top eight seeds, including the holders.
A measure of the task facing Ireland is that, not alone have Argentina won the last two meetings between the countries, but two weeks after the All Blacks won in Lansdowne Road last November by 40-29 they were pushed even harder to beat the Pumas in Buenos Aires 24-20 thanks to a try by Scott Robertson in the second minute of injury-time.
Mindful of the Australian spring heat, most games will be held in early evening or night time locally. All Ireland's matches will be held on weekends with evening kick-offs locally and so will be transmitted in the morning Irish-time.
The more intriguing element of the draw from an Irish perspective was the order of the matches. Instead of meeting the holders in the opener (that honour has been granted to the Pumas), Ireland will open up against a fellow European qualifier, most probably Spain, in Gosford (where the Lions lost to Australia A) on Saturday October 11th, kick-off 10.30 a.m. Irish-time.
Eight days later, they'll meet an African qualifier, expected to be Zimbabwe, in the Aussie Stadium in Sydney (kick-off 10.30 a.m. Irish time) before moving to Adelaide for the potentially pivotal rematch with Argentina on Sunday, October 26th (kick-off 9.30 a.m. Irish time).
That will most likely decide whether Ireland progress as one of Pool A's two qualifiers to the quarter-finals as their final Group A game will be against the hosts on Saturday, November 1st in the Colonial Stadium in Melbourne (kick-off 9.30 a.m. Irish-time).
The most attractive aspect of the draw from Eddie O'Sullivan's perspective is the geographical locations of the games, which are likely to send Ireland to Gosford, Sydney, Adelaide and Melbourne, avoiding the lengthy flights others must endure such as England.
"It is a reasonable draw," admitted O'Sullivan. "Certainly it doesn't present too many problems from a geographical perspective because all the venues are within fairly easy reach of each other."
The top two from each of the five-team groups progress to the quarter-finals, and were Ireland to qualify in second place there could, perhaps, be a modicum of consolation in avoiding any of the southern hemisphere big three (especially the All Blacks) though they would then face either France, the reigning Grand Slam champions of Europe, or at a push Scotland.
All of this presumes that Ireland will qualify in the first place, and the other real cost of not reaching the quarter-finals three years ago is having to go through a qualifying campaign in the first place.
The sheer nuisance value of that quarter-final play-off defeat to Argentina in Lens three years ago has been accentuated by the logistics of the qualifying games next September.
Though it is still to be confirmed, pending one more round of qualifying games in eastern Europe, the widespread anticipation is that these qualifiers will be away to Russia and at home to Georgia.
And, in readiness for these two qualifiers, Ireland are set to play Romania at home on September 7th. Failure to win both qualifiers would see Ireland go to Australia as "Europe 2", plunging them into the England/South Africa group or the one featuring New Zealand and Wales.
The Romanian game will be the first of 14 tests pencilled in for next season, on top of the forthcoming two-test tour to New Zealand next month.
In addition to the three September games, Ireland has three more internationals fixed for next autumn against Australia, Fiji and Argentina, the first and last given an added cat-and-mouse intrigue by yesterday's formal World Cup draw.
And, as if Ireland won't be sick of the Wallabies come World Cup time, in addition to the Six Nations game they are scheduled to tour Australia, Samoa and Tonga in June of 2003.
What masochist thought that one up?
The 48-match tournament will start on October 10th when Australia entertain Argentina, culminating with the World Cup final at Sydney's Stadium Australia on Saturday, November 22.
The stadium will also host both semi-finals, third-place play-off and final. Melbourne's Colonial Stadium will stage two quarter-finals, together with the Suncorp Stadium in Brisbane.
Other venue cities include Brisbane, Melbourne, Perth, Adelaide and Canberra, while stadia such as the Dairy Farmers in Townsville and Gosford's North Power were among those used during last summer's Lions tour.
Pool A
October 10: Australia v Argentina
(Australia, Sydney)
October 11: Europe 1 v Europe 4
(North Power Stad, Gosford)
October 14: Argentina v Africa 1
(Gosford)
October 18: Australia v Europe 4
(Suncorp Stad, Brisbane)
October 19: Europe 1 v Africa 1
(Aussie Stadium, Sydney)
October 22: Argentina v Europe 4
(Aussie Stadium)
October 25: Australia v Africa 1
(Adelaide Oval)
October 26: Argentina v Europe 1
(Adelaide Oval)
October 30: Africa 1 v Europe 4
(Adelaide Oval)
November 1: Australia v Europe 1
(Colonial Stad, Melbourne)
Pool B
October 11: France v Oceania 1
(Ballymore, Brisbane)
October 12: Scotland v Asia 1
(Dairy Farmers, Townsville)
October 15: Oceania 1 v Repechage 1
(Ballymore)
October 18 France v Asia 1
(Townsville)
October 20: Scotland v Repechage 1
(Ballymore)
October 23: Oceania 1 v Asia 1
(Townsville)
October 25: France v Scotland
(Stadium Australia, Sydney)
October 27: Asia 1 v Repechage 1
(North Power Stad, Gosford)
October 31: France v Repechage 1
(Wollongong Stadium)
November 1: Scotland v Oceania 1
(Aussie Stadium, Sydney)
Pool C
October 11: South Africa v America 2 (Subiaco Oval, Perth)
October 12: England v Europe 3
(Subiaco Oval)
October 15: Oceania 2 v America 2
(Subiaco Oval)
October 18: South Africa v England
(Subiaco Oval)
October 19: Europe 3 v Oceania 2
(Subiaco Oval)
October 24: South Africa v Europe 3
(Aussie Stadium, Sydney)
October 26: England v Oceania 2
(Colonial Stad, Melbourne)
October 28: Europe 3 v America 2
(Aussie Stadium)
November 1: South Africa v Oceania 2
(Ballymore, Brisbane)
November 2: England v America 2
(Ballymore)
Pool D
October 11: New Zealand v Europe 2
(Colonial Stad, Melbourne)
October 12: Wales v America 1
(Colonial Stadium)
October 15: Europe 2 v Repechage 2
(Canberra Stadium)
October 17: N Zealand v America 1
(Colonial Stadium)
October 19: Wales v Repechage 2
(Canberra Stadium)
October 21: Europe 2 v America 1
(Canberra Stadium)
October 24: N Zealand v Repechage 2
(Suncorp Stad, Brisbane)
October 25: Europe 2 v Wales
(Canberra Stadium)
October 29: America 1 v Repechage 2
(Wollongong Stadium)
November 2: New Zealand v Wales
(Stadium Australia, Sydney)
Pool A - Australia, Argentina, Europe 1, Africa 1, Europe 4
Pool B - France, Scotland, Oceania 1, Asia, Repechage
Pool C - South Africa, England, Oceania 2, Europe 3, America 2
Pool D - New Zealand, Wales, Europe 2, America 1, Repechage
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