ON RUGBY:Nothing ensures a positive frame of mind for the national squad going into the championship more than the provinces staying alive in Europe for April

FEW WEEKENDS define the Irish season quite like the final two pool rounds in Europe come January. Although the tensions between the Ireland and provincial managements over player release have intensified this season, it remains a mutually beneficial relationship in which the Ireland team feeds off the provinces and vice versa.

Nothing ensures a positive frame of mind when the Ireland squad come together prior to the Six Nations more than the knowledge the provinces have a tangible interest in Europe the ensuing April. This constitutes the barometer for the first half of the season. It rewards the seven months or so of pre-season and 15 or so matches they’ll usually have played at that juncture and it gives real meaning to the rest of the season.

Munster have been a virtual guarantor of that feel-good factor in qualifying for the last 11 years in succession, underpinning much of Ireland’s solidly consistent showing in the ensuing Six Nations campaigns. Leinster – as the other bulk suppliers – have generally augmented the good feeling by qualifying in six of the last eight seasons for the knock-out stages of the Heineken Cup.

Of course, it doesn’t necessarily follow that if Munster and Leinster qualify for the quarter-finals that Ireland duly puts their best foot forward in the Six Nations. When both qualified in harness for the first time in this month in 2002, Ireland still went on to lose heavily in Paris and London. Similarly, when both qualified in ’05 by topping their pools, winning 11 of 12 matches between them, Ireland’s effort tapered away as they lost to France and Wales to finish third.

The hangover lingered too, for when Leinster and Munster returned to Europe, Leinster lost dismally at home 29-13 to Leicester, while despite a second-half revival, Munster were beaten 18-10 in San Sebastien by Biarritz. Furthermore, Leinster’s failure to progress in January ’04 didn’t prevent Ireland from winning the first of their Triple Crowns in this period.

Nevertheless, there has been a clear correlation between the performances in the Heineken Cup and in the Six Nations, and the more positive the manner of the group qualification the better. For example, when Munster qualified by dint of the so-called Miracle Match in January ’03 when beating Gloucester 33-6 and Leinster romped to a top seeding with six wins out of six, Ireland went all the way to a Grand Slam shoot-out with England.

Rarely can the feel-good factor in the Ireland camp have been as high as in January ’06, after David Wallace’s 80th-minute try helped Munster to a bonus point win over Sale and an unexpected home quarter-final, while Leinster atoned for an opening defeat at home to Bath by going through as one of the best runners-up, courtesy of a bonus point win away to Bath. Ireland won the second of those Triple Crowns with that Shane Horgan try in Twickers and then Munster finally won the Heineken Cup.

The two qualified in January ’07 as well, but hardly with a flourish. Both lost out on home advantage in the quarter-finals after Leinster lost in Gloucester and Munster’s Thomond Park fortress was stormed for the first and only time by Leicester.

Ireland’s third Triple Crown was scant consolation for missing out on the championship and Grand Slam in the first of the Croke Park years, and both provinces went out in the quarter-finals, away to Llanelli and Wasps. So the feel-bad factor continued through to the World Cup.

Many people out there believe the malaise set in that fateful January day in Limerick. Whatever else, Munster and Irish rugby always had that unbeaten Euro record in Thomond. Psychologically, few defeats in the professional era have been more damaging.

In ’08, Leinster failed to qualify and Ireland suffered three defeats in the Six Nations, though Munster eked out an away quarter-final from a pool containing Clermont and Wasps. After beating Gloucester at Kingsholm in the last eight, their second Heineken Cup restored the feel-good factor. And when both qualified again last January it precipitated the Grand Slam and Leinster’s ultimate Euro success.

This time around, it’s conceivable all four provinces could have an interest in the European knock-out stages come April for the first time ever. The likelihood is for Munster and Leinster, their decisive games will come with a couple of Anglo-Irish group summit meetings at home to Northampton and away to London Irish the weekend after this.

They are two of the three form sides in England (along with Leicester). Indeed, Northampton’s latest last-ditch win over London Irish a fortnight ago, courtesy of another late try by Chris Jones, was their ninth win in a row in all competitions.

Both will probably have to win each of their remaining games, and while one might squeeze through as one of the best runners-up if they slip up on the final weekend, it’s highly unlikely both will. The intriguing three-way battle in Pool 3 between Clermont, the Ospreys and Leicester should see two progress.

For Ulster and Connacht, though, they meet points of no return on Friday evening at home to Edinburgh and Montpellier. Ulster must win at Ravenhill and away to Bath the following weekend to retain a good chance of qualifying for the Amlin Challenge Cup quarter-finals as the third, fourth or fifth best runners-up, for unless Stade Français trip up on Saturday week in Edinburgh, the Parisians should win the pool.

If there, it’s possible Ulster could run into Connacht, for whom Friday’s shoot-out with Montpellier at the Sportsground is simply a winner-takes-all tie, when victory would ensure them of a place in the Challenge Cup knock-out stages for a seventh time.

But Connacht’s lack of a game since their 35-3 defeat away to Munster on St Stephen’s Day is liable to hit them harder than Leinster’s enforced absence. Meantime, Montpellier have won eight of their last 11, and after beating Stade Français 25-23 and losing 26-10 away to Biarritz, last Saturday they helped topple Castres from first place in the Top 14 with a 15-0 win.

Now 10th, nine points off the play-offs and 12 clear of the relegation zone, Montpellier can afford to have a real go this Friday, given it’s their one chance of silverware. They’ve already won away to Worcester in round one, and with only the group winners progressing and with Mike Ruddock’s uninterested side to come at home in round six, victory in Galway would leave them with one foot in the quarter-finals at Connacht’s expense.

For Connacht then, a season-defining game.

gthornley@irishtimes.com