Ireland pack more power

RUGBY: As with the World Cup, the RBS Six Nations is awash with foregone conclusions. With Scotland 30-point underdogs at home to England today, no less than France versus Italy, even the Calcutta Cup fixture is losing its lustre.

Alas, unlike the last meeting here, tomorrow's Ireland-Wales encounter is an exception. Ye Gods, it actually looks interesting.

Time was, not so long ago, when Ireland versus Wales would briefly have fallen into that category, but that record rout (54-10) two years ago was something of a seminal moment for both national teams, marking the dawn of Eddie O'Sullivan's current 30-match reign, as well as inevitable closure for Graham Henry's tenure.

Ireland got out of jail in the Millennium Stadium last year, and a fourth successive win, and ninth in the last 11 meetings, followed last August but the gap has patently narrowed since then.

In the main that's down to Welsh rejuvenation. In the immediate aftermath of last week's exciting 23-10 win over Scotland, they strove to keep the nation's mood in check.

"This time Wales must step back from dreamland," implored their most capped forward, Gareth Llewellyn.

But with such a rich history, and after another fallow period, they can't help themselves. Team and supporters travel to Dublin with a palpable sense of optimism. They're up for this game in a way that simply couldn't have been imagined two years ago.

What's more they have a team playing an irreverent brand of rugby which they enjoy playing as much as their supporters enjoy watching. Now it's Wales who have the thrillseekers out wide in Rhys and Shane Williams, with the elusive and strong-running Gareth Thomas hitting the line, and playmakers designed to give them that width. They have been given licence to play an exciting brand of counterattacking rugby, and from broken play or through the phases, everyone else willingly joins in.

The same cannot be said of Ireland on last week's evidence. The team that kicked the ball in open play more than any other in the World Cup are discernibly more structured. In broken play, they look unsure of themselves, as if scared of making a mistake.

Of course, it would be a good deal different if Geordan Murphy and Denis Hickie - a genuine strike full back and Ireland's paciest winger - were there.

At least Brian O'Driscoll has answered a clarion call to arms, but after five weeks recovering from a torn hamstring, and in a relatively unfamiliar inside-centre role, how much of a talisman can he be? It could cramp his running style, and in the absence of Kevin Maggs, it will ask different questions of him and others around him defensively.

However, O'Driscoll does have an inspiring effect on those around him, and his new, untried partnership with Gordon D'Arcy - playing the best rugby of his life - is certainly a bold selection by O'Sullivan. With two such free spirits and deft offloaders in the tackle, it could make Ireland less predictable.

For all their upbeat mood, Steve Hansen and his Welsh team know Ireland won't be as soft a touch as Scotland were, and that this is something of a litmus test for them.

"They have a never-say-die attitude in life which comes through in their rugby," the Welsh coach said this week. "You hit them over the head with a cricket bat and they come back for more. They don't have the flashiest game but they are one of the most difficult sides to beat. You have to beat them rather than they beat themselves."

More pertinently, Ireland will surely not allow Wales as much ball, nor defensively anything like as much space or as many holes. In readiness for a tougher challenge up front, three changes in the Welsh tight five have given them a harder edge, with the selection of Iestyn Thomas at loosehead made in the belief he has John Hayes's number at scrum time.

Yet the Irish scrum should at least survive, while they can reasonably be expected to target the Welsh lineout and impose an impressive maul - one of Ireland's most reliable means of go-forward ball nowadays. Statistically Ireland won 92 per cent of their lineout ball in last season's championship, and carried on last week where they left off in the World Cup, where they won all but two of their 103 throws.

Despite the omission of two players (Maggs and Malcolm O'Kelly) with 119 caps between them, it's still a relatively experienced team when you think Ronan O'Gara today joins the likes of Hayes, Peter Stringer, O'Driscoll and Girvan Dempsey in the 40-plus cap bracket.

It was also clear from last weekend's slightly stale-looking performance in Paris that the team probably needed the freshening up that a mustard-keen Donncha O'Callaghan will undoubtedly provide.

Whether Ireland are playing like 1 to 3 favourites, or just as pertinently Wales like 9 to 4 underdogs, is a moot point. It may well be closer than those odds indicate. But even if the going gets tough, Ireland do have a host of players on the bench capable of making a big impact in the last half-hour. And they are, after all, at home.

You sense they'll have to win the battle for possession and territory to keep the lid on this Welsh team, but they have the ability up front and at half-back to do that.

Ireland v Wales Lansdowne Road, tomorrow (kick-off 3.00). Live on RTÉ and BBC.

Overall record: Played 108, Ireland 42 wins, 6 draws, Wales 60 wins.

Highest scores: Ireland 54-10 in Dublin (2002); Wales 34-9 in Dublin (1976).

Biggest wins: Ireland 54-10 in Dublin (2002); Wales 29-0 in Cardiff (1907).

Last five meetings: (2000) Ireland 19 Wales 23. (2001) Wales 6 Ireland 36. (2002) Ireland 54 Wales 10. (2003) Wales 24 Ireland 25. (2003) Ireland 35 Wales 12.

Five-game formguide: Ireland - W W L L L. Wales - W W L L W.

Betting (Paddy Powers): 1/3 Ireland, 25/1 draw, 9/4 Wales. Handicap betting (= Wales +9pts) 10/11 Ireland, 16/1 Draw, 10/11 Wales.

Forecast: Ireland to win.