Ireland must try to be more clinical

RUGBY/New Zealand v Ireland: Judgment day, in a way. For if this tour is to be deemed a success and the promise of the last two Saturdays to be fulfilled, then another strong Irish performance is required. Whether they can mark Ireland's 500th Test match with a historic first win in 16 attempts over the All Blacks is another matter, and still a long shot.

Having delivered handsomely in all the areas where there might have been some concern before last Saturday in Dunedin, and in the process strengthened the set- pieces and the defence, Ireland actually came up tryless for the first time since Eddie O'Sullivan joined the Irish coaching ticket.

So to go that extra step they need to be a bit more penetrative, and a bit more more clinical when opportunities present themselves. It's worth bearing in mind that on the three occasions Ireland crossed the All Blacks' line last week in Carisbrook, two were the result of cross-kicks and the other, like so many half-chances, emanated from one of many All Black handling errors. None was the result of a creative handling move.

This suggests clear try-scoring chances will again be at a premium and even this much is based on the premise that the Irish forwards can again achieve something akin to parity, especially in the lineouts. Furthermore, Andrew Mehrtens probably retains a goalkicking advantage over Ronan O'Gara, even if the All Blacks' record points scorer described the ball as "a pig" that doesn't fly particularly well.

So much of what happened in Carisbrook might have little relevance for what's in store tomorrow in Eden Park, given the cold, dewy conditions for Dunedin's first experiment with a night-time Test which compounded the problems with the vexed yellow Adidas torpedo ball.

Then again, Auckland and much of New Zealand has been hit with incessant rain culminating in the eye of a storm overnight which one TV weatherman called a "bomb". So horrendous was the weather yesterday that the Irish squad called off their planned night-time visit to Eden Park.

The Irish squad did manage to complete a soggy final work-out earlier in the day at the Waitemata RFC, home club of Michael Jones. Not surprisingly, Paul O'Connell failed a fitness test on the shoulder injury that he sustained last week and so is replaced by Malcolm O'Kelly, who'll be winning his 40th cap.

Hence, an unusual feature of the Irish replacements is that the three players covering the tight five positions are all from Blackrock College after Leo Cullen was promoted to the bench for the first time in a Test match alongside Shane Byrne and Paul Wallace.

Alan Quinlan is fit again and he has been reinstated on the bench ahead of the unfortunate David Wallace (whose holiday in San Francisco was thus curtailed without so much as seeing a minute's action) in the only other change from the 22 last week.

It's hard not to think that the All Blacks will improve significantly from last week, that their pack will up the ante, that they'll vary their game rather than start with a slightly presumptuous Plan A of attacking out wide and with no Plan B. Justin Marshall's service will hardly be as sluggish, Mehrtens will surely vary his game more effectively, and the cumulative handling errors will hardly scale the scarcely credible levels of last week. In which case another win by about two scores is the likeliest outcome.

Even so the All Blacks' two changes to their starting line-up remain curious-looking given the demoted Tana Umaga and try-scorer Doug Howlett were hardly the root cause of their problems last week. Nor has the recall of the local-boy-made-good, Jonah Lomu, seemingly assuaged rugby folk hereabouts.

What's left is effectively Jonah and the 14 Canterbury Crusaders, amid a slight hint of real worry, if not desperation. The expectation must be that the All Blacks will attempt to get the ball into Lomu's hands often and early to see if he can wreak early, and perhaps irreparable, psychological damage. But if Justin Bishop and company can emulate the heroics of Shane Horgan last October, there's every chance of this being another real contest.

Further offsetting the thoughts of a reprise of a decade ago, when the All Blacks responded to nearly losing the first Test with a record win in the second, Keith Wood would seem to be a more effective and inspirational leader than Reuben Thorne.

Besides, these touring Irish look to be made of sterner stuff than that, and unlike previous tours abroad they are palpably not in holiday mode just yet. There's a bit more business to be done.

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