Ireland have to be prepared for year when every game matters

DECLAN KIDNEY will announce the Ireland squad for the upcoming Six Nations Championship next Wednesday, a tournament that will have an added piquancy in 2012, as indeed will the 11 Test matches the national side will play, because the seeding for the 2015 Rugby World Cup in England and Wales will be determined by the world rankings after the conclusion of this year’s November Test series.

The draw for the pools in the 2015 Rugby World Cup will be made in early December. The teams ranked one to four in the world will be top seeds in groups containing five nations. Those ranked fifth to eighth will act as second seeds and ninth to 12 as third seeds. Twelve countries have already qualified automatically for the 2015 tournament by finishing third or better in their respective qroups in New Zealand last year.

The remaining eight teams – there will again to be 20 competing nations at the next World Cup – will have to qualify and their seeding for the World Cup draw will be determined by the global rankings at the end of November.

In essence there will be five pots (teams ranked 1-4, 5-8, 9-12, 13-16, 17-20) from which the four pools of five teams will be filled.

Ireland’s fixtures schedule aside from the Six Nations includes a three Test tour to New Zealand and November internationals against South Africa, Samoa and Argentina. Kidneys’ charges will also play the Barbarians at Gloucester’s Kingsholm ground ahead of their departure to New Zealand but this game will not count in terms of the IRB world ranking system.

In effect Ireland will play three matches against the reigning world champions, an All Blacks side that have topped the rankings for the past 25 months and counting, whom they have never beaten, and seven of the top 10 sides in the world. The ones they won’t play are the second-ranked Australia and Tonga, who are ninth. They will also take on Samoa (11th) and Italy (12th).

Ireland are currently ranked sixth in the standings and this season’s remit couldn’t be tougher with visits to Stade de France and Twickenham, to say nothing of a three Test tussle in the backyard of the 2011 World Cup winners. The only team in the top five Ireland will face in the Aviva Stadium is South Africa on Saturday, November 10th.

Conversely, the Irish side will play the five teams ranked below them in the world rankings – Argentina, Wales, Scotland, Samoa and Italy – at the Aviva Stadium.

This might sound like an advantageous proposition but the manner in which the world rankings are calculated ensures that losing a home match can carry a more severe penalty than being defeated away from home.

The IRB World Rankings are calculated using a “Points Exchange” system, in which sides take points from each other based on the match result. In simple terms whatever one side gains, the other loses. The exchanges are based on the match result, the relative strength of each team, and the margin of victory, and there is an allowance for the aforementioned home advantage.

In the latter respect the IRB explanation of the system states: “when calculating points exchanges, the home side is treated as though they are three rating points better than their current rating. This has the effect of “handicapping” the home side as they will tend to pick up fewer points for winning and give away more points for losing. In this way, the advantage of playing at home is cancelled out.” It illustrates the importance of Ireland’s six home matches this season.

For each match, there are only five possible outcomes that can affect points exchanges: either side winning by more than 15 points, either side losing by up to 15 points, or a draw. There can also be a mathematical coefficient factor in calculating the points earned/lost that sometimes comes into play.

But what can be stated is the notion that 2012 could be viewed through the prism of development in regard to the 2015 Rugby World Cup is simply not the case.

This year every game counts, period.

WORLD RANKINGS

1 New Zealand 91.43

2 Australia 87.99

3 France 84.70

4 South Africa 84.34

5 England 81.58

6 IRELAND 80.65

7 Argentina 80.28

8 Wales 79.61

9 Tonga 76.63

10 Scotland 76.20

11 Samoa 75.81

12 Italy 73.99