If Leinster were to play the quarter-final of the Heineken Cup this Sunday against Edinburgh I wonder who Joe Schmidt would select at outhalf. If he had all the Ireland players available to him,would he pick Paddy Jackson, Ronan O’Gara, Ian Madigan or Ian Keatley? Now Declan Kidney has finally made his decision we can move on to Sunday.

England beat us up a fortnight ago (look at the injuries) through contact and collisions. If Ireland do likewise they will beat Scotland. But what style of rugby will deliver a win?

To answer we must understand the Scottish threat. They look free-flowing when Johnnie Beattie dominates the contact, with continuity augmented by Richie Gray but when it’s not working it’s horrible. In particular at the breakdown area, which is where they come unstuck.

Here they can be downright awful: continuously coughing up possession, especially as their phases grow.

Interestingly, three tries against Italy came off minimal phases, turnovers etc. Scotland have a habit of shooting themselves in the foot by not treating the ball with enough respect. Our style should set out to expose this.

Against Italy they were never pushed to force the game, where, impressively, they afforded Italy multitudes of opportunity to do so and watched as they messed it up. Scotland shouldn’t have the same luxury on Sunday where errors should be encouraged.

Missed tackles

I lost count of the number of times Italy easily got past the fringe defence and across the gain line into Scotland’s half. I didn’t lose count of Scotland’s 19 missed tackles (Ireland missed three against England).

At times Italy made huge gains with a narrow blindside continuity but came unstuck with handling errors.

Hence I’d not be surprised to see the lineout maul from Ireland combined with field position and narrow targets.

Crucially, Conor Murray at scrumhalf must have an armchair ride which will allow him to take ownership and provide guidance for Paddy Jackson. Hence a forward pack focused on collisions and contact will suit nicely.

There are many Scottish players to watch. Up front, Italy’s scrum was comfortable and at times Scotland’s was not. Euan Murray’s absence is less significant than expected. Richie Gray is simply beautiful! I adore watching him but he is no master of the offload, which would offer opportunities for Ireland.

Beside him, war horse Jim Hamilton out of Gloucester must be targeted in the lineout and in defence. England’s Ben Youngs skinned him on the way to Geoff Parling’s try. This can be done through building phases with the object of seeking him out on the fifth plus phase. The Irish lineout ball should also land wherever he’s defending as he is cumbersome over the ground.

Intriguing

The Scottish backrow is intriguing, with class in Beattie at eight but the flanks are nothing like their English counterparts. Although a target in the air, young Rob Harley (second cap) has little physical impact, especially carrying or at the breakdown.

Scottish blindsides are rarely this meek. Kelly Brown, captain and openside, was bullied completely in Twickenham and bar his one up tackles was very quiet against Italy. The Scottish wing forwards and midfield style should shape our tactics.

O’Gara has more caps coming off the bench than the Scottish half backs combined (32), who are fast becoming controllers of Scotland’s propensity to self-implode. The fact the Scottish midfield scored a try each shouldn’t fool you. They are competent but limited.

Matt Scott shoots up in defence, especially from off-the-top lineouts, and Sean Lamont misses too many tackles. Neither are especially creative and the tries they scored were well taken but criminally conceded by the Italians.

Back three

However, it is their back three that have class, maximising the width of the pitch. Their conundrum, however, will be sourcing the ball, which brings Jackson’s style into play. Long touch-finders will be immediately thrown back into play and long box-kicks that are too long will be returned in the counter.

A loose turnover is the oxygen the Scots live on; so, starve them. How much rugby should Jackson play? I feel Ireland should err on intensity, pressure, narrow attack, backrow carries, lineout mauls and rewinds.

Scotland did huff and puff in contact but ultimately are meek at the breakdown.

On their own ball they favour the front of the lineout, which does give them go forward and scoring opportunities. But for all their six tries (from distance or embarrassing defence) Scotland still suffer from white line fever.

Their breaks are generally simple hard-running lines with little continuity from their backrow. Italy came to play rugby, and their ambition was their undoing as they failed to dominate the collisions on their terms.

More clinical

Italy forced well over twice the tackles from Scotland, who missed a huge amount: if Italy, with 70 per cent of possession, were more clinical all could have been different. This Scottish team are still relatively poor, borne out by their basics, where coach Scott Johnson has them shouting “line speed” as they defend.

I know Ireland are shorn of many class players but with a possible eight Lions still togging out for them on Sunday I expect, with ruthless contact and collisions, the Irish backrow will shine and Scotland will lose.

No excuses Declan.

PS: Congratulations to Olivia Traynor and her gang of six women who were the driving force behind The Lineout Charity Ball in Galway’s Radisson Hotel last Saturday night. It was a cracking night, full of goodwill and charity from the rugby community conscious of the damage rugby can do to its players.

Although all six are Connacht season ticket holders, with all proceeds going to the IRFU Charitable Trust, Connacht Rugby did not show up in numbers.