How can Rory McIlroy win the Race to Dubai?

The Race to Dubai comes to its conclusion at the DP World Tour Championship this week with the title very much still up for grabs.

Henrik Stenson goes into the week 299,675 points ahead of second-placed Danny Willett after an eighth-place finish at the Nedbank Golf Challenge last week.

Fellow countryman Alex Noren has now come into the picture as a potential challenger to Stenson's crown after his win in South Africa last week.

All three have real chances of taking the title while, for Rory McIlroy, the possibility is considerably slimmer after he opted out of the Turkish Airlines Open and last week’s Gary Player-hosted event in Sun City.

For McIlroy to retain his status as European number one for the third year in a row he must make it three wins at the Earth Course this week and hope that Stenson finishes outside the top 45, Willett outside the top five and Noren outside the top two.

If that situation were to unfold McIlroy would become the first player since Stenson in 2013 to win the FedEx Cup and the Race to Dubai in the same season.

McIlroy’s record at the Earth Course certainly backs up his tag of favourite this week with the 27-year-old recording two victories in seven starts at the venue as well as an 11th place or better finish on all seven occasions, a 68.1 scoring average and a combined total of 108 under par.

The permutations for Stenson, Willett or Noren to take the title are as follows:

• For Noren to win, he needs a minimum top two finish. If he wins the DP World Tour Championship, Stenson can still win the Race to Dubai by finishing second.

• If Noren finishes second, to win the Race to Dubai he needs Stenson to finish outside the top eight and Willett outside the top two.

• If Willett finishes fourth, Stenson needs to finish inside the top 30 to stay ahead of him.

• If Willett finishes third, Stenson needs a top nine finish to remain ahead of him in the race.

• If Willett finishes second, he wins the Race to Dubai if Stenson finishes outside the top two and Noren does not win.

• If Willett wins the DP World Tour Championship, he wins the Race to Dubai regardless of other results.

• Stenson wins the Race to Dubai if none of the above scenarios unfold.