Henrik Stenson in pole position as Race to Dubai reaches climax

Drama until the death, if only just.

Although Henrik Stenson, the British Open champion, has a grip on the Race to Dubai title – once upon a time known as the European Tour order of merit – going into this week’s finale, the DP World Tour Championship in Dubai, four players still have a mathematical chance of scooping the riches.

In effect, though, Rory McIlroy – one of that quartet – would require something akin to a golfing miracle to actually pull off the feat.

In deciding to bypass the Turkish Airlines Open due to security concerns and in not adding the Nedbank Championship to his itinerary, the Northern Irishman, a winner of the FedEx Cup on the PGA Tour, effectively left the race to others and seemed content with his lot in doing so.

So it is that Stenson heads to a familiar haunt in Dubai, where he lived for a number of years, aware that he has it in his own hands to claim the order of merit title.

Danny Willett, out-of-form and nothing at all like the player who so impressively won the Us Masters last April, and Stenson’s fellow-Swede Alex Noren, unquestionably the in-form player on tour at the moment, are his closest challengers for the money title.

McIlroy, in fourth, is the only other player who theoretically can catch him.

“It’s been the season of my life,” said Noren after his Nedbank Championship win on Sunday, his fourth victory of the season.

Of course he can make it even better should he manage to leapfrog Stenson at the final hurdle, requiring a win and for Stenson to finish outside the top-two or alternatively by finishing second and for Stenson to finish outside the top-10.

Closest pursuers

Going into the final tournament of the 2016 season, Stenson has 299,675 points to spare over Willett and heads Noren by 633,436.

He is 1,176,414 points ahead of McIlroy, with €1,217,174 – and the equivalent in points – available to the winner of the tournament.

Stenson, though, would seem to have left McIlroy out of the equation and, given the twists and turns that would have to occur for the Ulsterman to usurp him, it is understandable that his focus is on his two closest pursuers.

“Alex is definitely in there in the mix for the last week. Danny’s always going to have a chance, I’m going to have a chance, and Alex, and I don’t know if there’s anyone else really that has a chance going into last week. I’m pretty pleased with that. Of course, with Alex playing as well as he does, it just motivates me even more to bring my game and then try and be up there,” said Stenson.

McIlroy – who topped the order of merit in 2012, 2014 and 2015 – is one of three Irish players in the field in Dubai, along with Shane Lowry – back playing after a two-week break – and Pádraig Harrington, who has failed to find the form that saw him win the Portugal Masters last month.

The Dubliner has finished 31st (in Turkey) and 55th (in Sun City) and will close out his season’s work in Dubai.

With no cut and a limited field of just 60 players teeing up in Dubai, there are different targets for all three Irish players.

For McIlroy, there’s the prospect, however remote, of a third straight Race to Dubai title; for Lowry, there is the incentive that a win or good finish could propel him into the top-10 on the standings with a  $5 million bonus pool to be divvied up; and, for Harrington, there is an ongoing quest to break back into the world’s top-50 in the rankings.

Séamus Power, meanwhile, continues his hectic PGA Tour schedule at the RSM Classic at Sea Island, Georgia where Kevin Kisner defends his title.

Meanwhile, the European Tour has confirmed that US Ryder Cup player Patrick Reed will continue to have tour membership despite not meeting the required number of tournaments this season.

Reed’s win in the WGC-Cadillac in 2014 gave him a five-year tour membership exemption and he intends playing on the European Tour again in 2017.

Who can win the Race to Dubai?

Henrik Stenson

The Swede is in the driving seat. If he wins the DP World Tour Championship, he does the double.  Depending on how his main rivals do, Stenson could finish anywhere between second and 44th and still win.

Danny Willett

The Englishman has the best chance to usurp Stenson: if he finishes fourth, Stenson would need to finish inside the top-30 to stay ahead; if he finishes third, Stenson would need a top-nine; if he finishes second, he wins the R2D if Stenson finishes outside the top two and Noren doesn't win; if he wins the tournament, he wins the order of merit too. Alex Noren

For the red-hot Swede to win the R2D, he needs a minimum top-two finish. If Noren finishes second in the tournament, he needs Stenson to finish outside the top eight; if he wins the DP World, he needs Stenson to finish worse than second.  Rory McIlroy

For the Northern Irishman to claim a third straight R2D, he needs to win the DP World with Stenson finishing outside the top 45, Willett outside the top five and Noren outside the top two.