The weekend’s GAA previews

SATURDAY All-Ireland SFC Qualifiers Round 1A

Laois v Armagh Portlaoise, 3.30 Live, RTÉ Two

Hard to imagine it’s only two years since Armagh were in an All-Ireland quarter-final, three since Laois were in the last 12. One of them will be gone shortly after five o’clock, officially the first county out of the championship. Armagh have been torpedoed by injuries and absences and haven’t won a game outside their home ground in 14 months. If Laois don’t win here, things are worse than they look.

Verdict: Laois

Derry v Louth Owenbeg, 5.0

Even allowing for the venue and Louth’s six-day turnaround, it’s surely pushing it to make them an 11/2 shot here while Derry are 1/7. Those odds suggest a mismatch but Derry are without stalwarts Chrissy McKaigue (suspended), Enda Lynn, Ciarán McFaul and Seán Leo McGoldrick (all injured). Louth didn’t show up against Meath but there are decades of mental hurdles to jump in that fixture whereas these two sides have never met before in championship. There’s every chance they could come out the right side of a high-scoring affair.

Verdict: Louth

All-Ireland qualifiers Round One A

Carlow v Wicklow Netwatch Dr Cullen Park, 7.0

In the league Carlow sprang something of a surprise by securing a first win in Aughrim since the 1970s and now enjoy home advantage. There is reason however to believe that Wicklow have been more impressive in the championship even if Carlow’s tussle with Louth was competitive until the last 10 minutes. Wicklow travelled to Portlaoise and put it up to the home side for whom a late goal gave a flattering gloss to the seven-point win. Johnny Magee’s side were impressively physical and defensively should have enough to restrict Carlow to an achievable total.

Verdict: Wicklow

SUNDAY

Munster SHC semi-final

Tipperary v Limerick Thurles, 4.0 Live, RTÉ One

All-Ireland semi-finalists just under two years ago and the summer before that, Limerick are giving every impression of having reverted to a work in progress despite having come in out of the cold with a first Munster title in 17 seasons.

Signals are confusing in that the great strides of 2013 and ’14 have since been lengthened by an under-21 All-Ireland last autumn and the county’s first club triumph when Na Piarsaigh won out on St Patrick’s Day. Throw in a strong showing by Limerick colleges in the Fitzgibbon – three out of the four semi-finalists – and there should be more optimism evident than there is.

It’s likely that the flat-line trajectory of last year’s championship, which was then followed by another disappointment in the promotion race out of Division One B, has made a rethink inevitable and, given the emerging resources, a rebuild was always on the cards.

The Munster draw hasn’t been kind in that Limerick could have done with the tune-up, which instead went to Tipperary in last month’s comfortable dismissal of Cork.

Tipp have been the touchstone of Limerick’s fortunes in this decade. Sunday is the fifth successive meeting between the counties and in three of the previous four the winners have gone on to win Munster. Although the verdicts have been shared equally, last year’s encounter in Limerick sent a shiver through the home side.

Having beaten Tipp for two years running and having established such a formidable record in the Gaelic Grounds, Limerick were devoured in the final quarter and had no answer to Séamus Callanan and John O’Dwyer running riot.

Given those defensive shortcomings the temptation to go for a wholesale importation from the under-21s isn’t too surprising, as a number of them are very promising players, especially Richie English, who played full back on that side and although named at corner back is a useful option on the edge of the square.

Stephen Walsh played sweeper last year to try to stymie Callanan but with much the same success that Cork enjoyed four weeks ago. Should Limerick try the same tactic it’s hard not to see a similar outcome in that Tipperary won’t budge and it will give Ronan and Pádraic Maher licence to roam the half-back line gobbling up misplaced deliveries and picking their shots in return.

There is some surprise at the failure of Na Piarsaigh to make more of an impact on the selection but with David Breen taking a year out and the interesting experience of 2013 when John Allen kept Shane Dowling and Kevin Downes on the line as impact replacements, there needn’t be too many raised eyebrows however TJ Ryan lines them out.

The big statement by Michael Ryan’s team against Cork was the restored form of Callanan and O’Dwyer after a difficult league and the fine display by Brendan Maher at centrefield. In addition Patrick Maher’s previously subdued form has revived in recent challenges, which adds to an attack in which John McGrath is a quality acquisition since last year.

Limerick’s win two years ago was their first in Thurles since 1973. They’re not likely to get another one too quickly.

Last meeting: 2015 Munster semi-final, Gaelic Grounds, Tipperary 4-23, Limerick 1-16.

Odds: Tipperary 2/7, Limerick 10/3 and 11/1 the draw.

Just the ticket: Covered Stand, €30, uncovered €25, and terrace €20 (concessions available for students, senior citizens and families) and under-16s €5.

Verdict: Tipperary

Leinster SHC Semi-final

Galway v Offaly Portlaoise, 3.30

If they have every right to be narky about the ongoing affront of having no home games in Leinster, Galway can at least take comfort in a safe passage to the final here. Offaly have done well to turn their summer around from inauspicious beginnings against Westmeath but they’re not at or near Galway’s level.

Micheál Donoghue has been quietly rounding his side into shape and while the usual caveat of not knowing who they are until the heat comes on still applies, there have been encouraging signs. In times past, the Westmeath game might have seen them take a while to settle but they pulverised Michael Ryan’s side and got out the gap with no fuss. Joe Canning has been cleared after his knock to the head and Pádraig Mannion is back as well. Cyril Donnellan may still have a bit to go, however.

As for Offaly, there’s no denying the drop down to the round-robin group has been of benefit to them. After three years of two-games-and-gone in the championship, they will play at least six times in 2016. Their game-on-game improvement has been impressive and though wins against Kerry and Laois might not sound like a lot, they were avenging defeats that had stung in both cases. You can only start from where you’re standing.

But they’re out of their depth here and Galway should take full advantage.

Last meeting: June 17th 2012, Leinster SHC, Portlaoise - Galway 5-23 Offaly 3-15

Injuries: No new casualties on either side, although Galway will wait on Cyril Donnellan (thumb) and John Hanbury (groin)

Odds: Galway 1/25, Offaly 11/1, Draw 25/1

Just the ticket: Covered Stand €30; Terrace €20; Under-16 €5.

Verdict: Galway

Ulster SFC semi-final

Tyrone v Cavan Clones, 2.00

If wishing made it so, this would be the game that kicked Ulster into life. The law of averages suggests a close game to arrive along eventually but it’s come to something up North when you’re waiting on the law of averages to deliver a typical Ulster Championship match. Cavan and Tyrone should – should – give us a game but we said that about Fermanagh and Donegal last week too.

One reason for more confidence this week is the fact that Cavan are good at some things that Tyrone might struggle with. They have height from midfield to corner-forward whereas Tyrone have a lot of pure athletes – great for their own game but possibly worth targeting with Cavan’s.

Terry Hyland’s side also have a clear idea of how they want to play and a number of routes for ferrying the ball from defence to attack. For all that Tyrone are enjoying a long unbeaten streak, they haven’t faced a side who could legitimately claim that (Cavan in the league final included) since last year’s All-Ireland semi-final against Kerry.

So this is a game for Tyrone to find out where they’re at. We assume they’re Ulster’s best shot at an All-Ireland but we don’t know what they’ve been beating. They will surely seek to make Conor Moynagh defend here rather than range around the centre of the pitch picking passes and linking play. Their running game will be stopped regularly enough by Cavan but the waves will probably erode enough of that rock eventually for them to come through.

Last meeting: June 25th 2005, Ulster SFC, Clones - Tyrone 3-19 Cavan 0-7

Injuries: Both sides have named the same team as started their quarter-finals.

Odds: Tyrone 2/5, Cavan 5/2, Draw 17/2

Just the ticket: Covered Stand €25/£20; Terrace €15/£12; Under-16 €5/£5

Verdict: Tyrone by two.

All-Ireland SFC Qualifiers Round 1A

Leitrim v Waterford Páirc Seán Mac Diarmada, Carrick-on-Shannon, 2.0

The overview of this first championship meeting between the counties is that the winners will have doubled their total of qualifier wins from one to two – in the 16th year of the championship format. Consequently each represents a dream draw for the other. They met on the last weekend of the league in a Division Four fixture, attended by a ‘crowd’ of 79 which saw JJ Hutchinson’s frees win for Waterford in unpleasant weather. So far Leitrim have been pummelled by Roscommon in Connacht whereas Waterford were competitive with Tipperary up until half-time. Leitrim have injury worries but home advantage can help them through.

Verdict: Leitrim