Mayo ripped up script – now they can write own ending

All-Ireland football final replay: Dublin v Mayo

Venue: Croke Park

Throw-in: 5pm

Television: RTÉ2, Sky Sports

Most of the time, a draw leaves you back where you started. Everyone back to their corner, everyone back to being who they were before the first whistle.

If you were supposed to win coming in, chances are you’ll get it done the next day. If nobody gave you a snowball’s, you probably left it behind. These are the terms and conditions, as old as time itself.

It's rare that you get the sort of scenario that this All-Ireland final has thrown up. Mayo, at least to these eyes, have grown in stature on the back of both the result and the performance two weeks ago.

Among the multitude of bizarre takeaways from the game is the fact that they managed to end the day both having been the better team and having snatched a result when all looked lost.

They should be All-Ireland champions. They should also be a fortnight into a desolate inquest into how they contrived to lose another final. Ignore for a moment the fact they have won precisely nothing. Dwell instead on the fact these are not the sort of considerations that really anyone had them down for ahead of the first game.

Outstrip

Certainly not here. In this space, the verdict was Dublin by two or three points on the basis that they would, as usual, outstrip Mayo’s scoring power, especially in the forwards. Yet, as it happened, the Mayo forwards outscored the Dublin ones, the first time that has happened Dublin since the Donegal game in 2014.

But even getting away from the drill-down minutiae of it all, there was a far more intangible and yet at the same time far more real concern when it came to Mayo ahead of the first game.

Their season had been so underwhelming, so devoid of momentum, that it was just too hard to see where an All-Ireland-winning display would come from. You could talk the game through a hundred different ways but the conclusion was always the same – nothing in Mayo’s summer pointed to them bringing a performance that would beat Dublin.

Things are different now. If our main reservation ahead of the drawn game was that Mayo had no form to speak of, that’s gone by the wayside. The notion that Dublin are untouchable in the closing stages of a game has been nuked as well.

All of which means there is a different starting point for this game. Mayo are the one side who have always been deeply unimpressed by the claims of greatness made on Dublin’s behalf so once they have any bit of decent form to marry up to their reliably bellicose attitude, they must be dangerous.

Dublin have a huge job on here. Not only to they have to deal with the team wearing green and red but they have to figure out the one in blue as well. A slightly incongruous feature of their run of four All-Ireland finals in six seasons is the fact that they have yet to bring their best form to the biggest day of the season.

Their best displays have always either been in swatting aside lesser opposition as they liked or in coming through epic semi-finals against Kerry (2013 and 2016) or Mayo (2015).

Their shooting let them down the first day, it's true. But what let them down even more was an unfamiliar urge to take on shots that just weren't there. Bernard Brogan had one shortly before being subbed off that he wouldn't try in training – falling, sliding, his feet not quite under him, the ball not quite in his grasp. Eoghan O'Gara came on for him and his main contribution was that scuttled effort after both Ciarán Kilkenny and Dean Rock had passed up better opportunities.

For a team we were so certain about a fortnight ago, it’s interesting to see how much doubt surrounds Dublin this morning. Mayo will go with their four markers and a sweeper in defence – who are you backing in the Dublin forward line to outplay his man? Dean Rock was the best free-taker in the country a fortnight ago – is he a strength or a weakness now?

There are a handful of must-dos on both sides. For Dublin, James McCarthy must provide some of the thrust that has been missing since he got hurt mid-season.

Think back to the Laois game in Nowlan Park, where he seemed to cover 40 yards in about six steps to set up Dublin’s second goal. They need that guy back.

Speed up

Rock must kick his frees. Stephen Cluxton must speed up his kick-outs, which went from taking a general average of in or around six seconds all season to over 15 seconds in the final (hat-tip to the Dontfoul blog). Diarmuid Connolly must be himself – and if that means taking a shot at the posts from a late sideline ball, so be it.

Mayo have must-dos too. Colm Boyle must stay on the pitch – yet again he was subbed off while on a yellow card, this time in the 58th minute. He's too important to be sitting out the last 20 minutes of the game.

Kevin McLoughlin must sort out his positioning if he’s going to be a true sweeper and not just a launchpad for attacks – the second own goal saw him render himself irrelevant as Dublin ran a rehearsed move around him. Own goal or not, it was a dead ball ineptly defended.

That’s still the big worry with Mayo. Dublin got in for three goal chances when Mayo were on top and on each occasion, a Mayo player either made the wrong decision or no decision. That, above everything, is their chief must-do. Stop the goals and they have a chance.

Dublin will be better. Mayo ought to be better too. It won’t be a shock if they improve past Jim Gavin’s side.

Verdict: Mayo