Kevin McStay: If Kerry aren’t winning midfield, they aren’t winning the All-Ireland

The countdown is gathering pace now and the heartbeat quickens.

This will be a memorable week in two counties that have given the GAA its emblematic football rivalry. When the ball is thrown in on Sunday we won't have seen Dublin or Kerry play for three weeks. They've been working furiously back stage. And there are a few issues for the supporters in both counties to think about.

The Stephen O’Brien black card controversy has been cleared up. Neither side has any major injuries to worry about – even if the James O’Donoghue situation remains day-to-day. The Tommy Walsh-as-starter idea has gathered momentum. It has potential and it brings Kerry to the question: do they go for it? But for me the key question in terms of Kerry starters concerns Jack Sherwood.

When I saw Kerry playing Dublin in Tralee , I felt Sherwood was Kerry’s most impressive player. He seemed to fade out of contention a little bit after that but to me, he had a huge say in the semi-final comeback against Tyrone.

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On the Dublin side, there is the issue of whether Cian O’Sullivan comes back into the picture. But, by and large, each manager knows the players his side will be facing. The stage is set.

Dublin know this All-Ireland routine off by heart at this stage. But it is a five-in- a-row quest this year. It’s unique for them too. They can use the anonymity of the city as a smoke screen: lie low and avoid whatever hype is out there.

Under Jim Gavin, they have developed a process and know how to get into this place; we saw how quickly they got the 'press night' out of the way. Distractions are dispensed with. So I don't think they will be caught out by either hype or complacency.

However, this experience is new to the vast majority of these Kerry players and, to some extent, Peter Keane – 2014 is their only All-Ireland title of this decade; lean pickings by Kingdom standards.

But this thing of Kerry on a learning curve doesn’t wash. Once they get here, to the September game, they are here to win. Forget next year. This is 70 minutes from another title, another notch on the belt. More importantly, it is a game in which they can stop GAA history from unfolding before our eyes. It’s an amazing place for these Kerry lads to find themselves: in an All-Ireland final as defenders of the faith.

So how does this game break down? To me, it boils down to an elemental question. Which defence can cope best with the star-studded offence of the other team? Answering this question remains a big concern to both managers. Kerry used the league to road test their defence and yet their full back line creaked severely and might have been smashed by Cathal McShane alone in the semi-final. They will cough up chances.

Teams tend to score too much against Kerry – they conceded 1-20 against Donegal; that is too big of a score to concede for a team trying to establish itself as mean and tight. The tally of 1-14 against Tyrone is slightly better but then we have to allow for the series of truly shocking wides the Ulster men kicked. So for a team trying to win an All-Ireland, they are leaky at the back. And they are facing one of the most dangerous forward units in the history of the game.

Last quarter

Dublin’s back line have issues too. My sense is that Dublin’s best defence has been to starve the other crowd off the ball. You can’t score without it. I feel that in the last quarter, they are now maximising the play-time out of every sequence of play. They are usually ahead at this stage and they are tiring the other side out and just keeping hold of the ball before usually taking the correct scoring option.

The scorers get the headlines and the cheers but you could argue that the two most important individual players on the field are midfielders Brian Fenton and David Moran. I can say without equivocation that if Kerry aren't winning midfield, then they aren't winning the All-Ireland. How do they break even in this sector?

Well, as was illustrated in the Irish Times last week, Jack Barry has done very well on Fenton. Still, Jack appeared in the 75th minute of the semi-final; it is difficult to see him parachuted in for a role of this magnitude. It is food for thought but it comes down to Moran having one more magnificent game for Kerry.

Or to flip that coin, Dublin will feel that if they can eliminate Moran’s influence then they have one hand on the Sam Maguire.

Here are the questions for Kerry. What will they do against Stephen Cluxton's kick-out? If they push up, it is high risk if he kicks over the top of that press. The pressing game is very tough on forwards and particularly on Paul Geaney and David Clifford, big men who don't like that kind of work. They like to save their explosiveness and athleticism for ball work.

The amount of physical and mental energy you burn being a forward/defender is considerable. So if you are Peter Keane, you decide to concede the kick-out and just wait for them to come to you. Fine. But that is demoralising for the players. When you score, you are sort of falling back. You can’t really build momentum. The alternative is to push up on a score and sit back on a wide. But even with that it is hard to apply consistent pressure.

The big weapon Kerry have in solving this dilemma is that Donie Buckley has been through all this before. Kerry rumbled Cluxton under Fitzmaurice and Mayo also troubled the Dublin kick-out when Buckley was on the line with them. So you can see Kerry pressing at times on Sunday but not consistently and maybe causing more discomfort for Dublin than we have seen this year.

I don’t think Paul Murphy is comfortable in the sweeping role in Kerry’s defence. The passing around that positional figure has become so accurate that you really need two sweepers. And if Kerry go with that, then they are falling into a defensive posture and lose that attacking presence and shape up front. But if Kerry instead opt to go man to man, then that is hugely risky.

We saw what happened to Mayo. It is a truly high risk to allow the likes of Paul Mannion and Con O’Callaghan to isolate their defender. Part of the problem for Mayo was that Keegan picked up an early yellow card and he had to take that step back for the O’Callaghan’s second goal.

The Kerry kick-out is not nearly as good as it needs to be. They have to at least keep the ball away from Fenton. Shane Ryan, the Kerry goalkeeper, has a lot of improvements to make in his kick-out and housekeeping and general bravery around the goal. The Kerry full back unit has yet to convince; it is not gold standard.

Carbon copy

There tends to be an unwritten law in contemporary Gaelic football: if you win the majority of your match-ups, then you win the game. You have about seven critical match-ups to consider against Dublin. This is where Dublin are market leaders. McCaffrey, McCarthy, Fenton, O’Callaghan, Howard, Mannion and Kilkenny must be watched.

Kerry, in comparison have five must-watch players: Moran, Tom O’Sullivan, David Clifford, Sean O’Shea and Paul Geaney. But Kerry do not have seven strong man markers to watch the above. This is the problem for all opposition teams, you run out of options. This is why Dublin thrive.

The 2019 championship is a carbon copy of last year in that Dublin have cruised to the final. It has almost crept up on me that they are going for seven championships in nine seasons. They are already the first Dublin team to ever win four All-Irelands in a row. Now they are odds-on favourites to make GAA national history.

The striking narrative that came out of the Mayo semi-final was the 12 in 12: the 2-6 in 12 minutes. What we forgot about in all of this is that even though Tyrone were in a nice position early on in the 2018 final, Dublin then hit them for 1-5 in five minutes.

That is an even more ferocious scoring burst. This is what they do. Why is it that they can do this? The answer is in their shot selection. I did a second-half shot map against Mayo. They scored 3-8 in their 11 scoring shots. Three goals and two points came within the large rectangle. There are no bullet goals from distance with Dublin. They are point blank chances and the shot is almost uncontested. The other six shots came from three frees and three open shots from play all scored by Mannion. Nobody else took pops.

This is a big feature of what they are doing now. They are getting the ball to a position where they nearly have to score. They have the patience to work the ball until the gap appears through a quick transfer of ball and movement and they can get even their average shooters with a really clear look right in front of goal.

It becomes harder to miss than to score. And they are brilliant at this. Now, Kerry will know this. But it is one thing to understand it. Stopping it is quite another.

If you turn to the respective benches, it is interesting that Cian O’Sullivan was the first man in against Mayo. Jim Gavin believes in him and trusts him and he is in the running to start on Sunday. Diarmuid Connolly and Paddy Andrews came in after the hour mark. Philly McMahon came in with 68 minutes gone.

The point is, their starting 15 have the athleticism to keep it going for a long period. The only guy who gets hooked early is Michael Darragh Macauley because he puts in such a huge shift over that first 50 minutes. But both teams have options in reserve.

Officials can have a big influence on these days. Referees cannot see everything. Things get missed. I remember a study of major games coming out in 2017 and in the review, other referees made their judgments based on three criteria: correct calls made, incorrect calls made and calls that ought to have been made but were not. The third category was the biggest. So the takeaway from that bit of research is that these are the moments that play a huge part in the outcome of games.

Splendid era

Recent Kerry-Dublin games have been close. Remember Kevin McManamon stepping inside a Kerry player in 2011 and a free awarded by Joe McQuillan; a lot of people argued that the Kerry defender had position established on that play. It was a controversial call but it led to Cluxton kicking a free to win the All-Ireland.

And look at David Gough in 2016 when it was a two-point game and Peter Crowley was absolutely clattered by McManamon. Darran O’Sullivan in 2017 got a black card handed to him which was later rescinded. These things will happen. But my expectation here is that the third category will be reduced to a minimum by Gough because he is refereeing extremely well.

So you tease out all these variables and it’s hard to escape the evidence that Dublin just have a bit more. They are stronger through the lines and when stretched, they cover for one another through sheer athleticism. They just get back into position more quickly. This day is the pinnacle of a splendid era in their history.

We don't know how this will prey on Dublin minds. This is the biggest game they will ever play in their lives

I think Dublin have almost saved football by virtue of their approach and the skill level running through their game. At a time when the Ulster influence was quite strong, in fairness, they came along and reinvented the approach to the game and are playing an outstanding brand of football. They are smashing to watch.

Now, I don’t expect Kerry to worry about any of this. Kerry will have the belief and confidence that comes from growing up in that county. A win here would be a win for the ages. It would establish their position as the team likely to dominate for the next few years. The pendulum could swing on the outcome of this game. I am not saying Dublin are going away, not at all. Dublin won’t ever disappear for 20 years again. That’s over. But a victory here would give Kerry a chance to win a few titles as Dublin regroup.

I feel Dublin are four points better but if Kerry can get all of the above right and one or two guys have the games of their life, then the contest becomes much closer and the endgame potentially very tricky and nerve-wracking for Dublin.

It goes back to the big question. If Dublin can obscure Moran, my sense is that they trot to a fifth All-Ireland in a row. But if Kerry can find a way for Moran to influence the day, then it becomes a different game. And the one thing is, this five in a row thing has never been done before.

The awareness of this will increase by the minute in that stadium on Sunday. It’s hard to do. We don’t know how this will prey on Dublin minds. This is the biggest game they will ever play in their lives. Maybe it’s the day when Dublin will look fallible after all. But I can’t argue against them or against their body of work.