Jim McGuinness: Will Dessie Farrell follow the Jim Gavin playbook?

Most people are expecting Dublin to comfortably deal with Westmeath on Saturday, and for neutrals it may not be the most exciting prospect. But I've been looking forward to it all week because it will give us a sign of Dessie Farrell's statement of intent and, by extension, a clue as to the future direction of football.

If you look at Gaelic football now, I think it is true to say that all teams are playing the same way. In other words, they have all fallen into step behind the brand of possession-based football patented by Dublin during the Jim Gavin era. So, as a spectacle, football has become a game of cat-and-mouse. The trouble is, it is sometimes difficult to figure out which team is cat and which is mouse.

Farrell’s first year as Dublin manager couldn’t have come with any more interruptions or difficulties. What I’m most looking forward to seeing is whether he will attempt – to use a phrase of the moment – a peaceful transition and persist with Dublin’s style of play or decide to put his own stamp on the team immediately.

One of the things that most impressed me about Dublin was the evolution of the team under Gavin. I think to completely change their approach to the game while still winning All-Irelands was a phenomenal achievement.

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If you remember Gavin’s first year in charge, in 2013, Dublin came out of the traps with an audacious brand of attacking football that was dazzling to look at. I’m not sure if it was designed to frighten other teams but it almost certainly did. The word often used was “swashbuckling” and, if anything, it undersold their approach. They brought pace and athleticism and a serious kicking game, destroying teams with explosive, ambitious kicking football. That was the philosophy and they nailed it.

Nightmares

It was so hard to defend against. It would give you nightmares to think about. The directness of the attacks instigated by Stephen Cluxton meant that teams hardly had time to set up. They were getting off 45-49 shots a game. It was a shock-and-awe philosophy. It was a tribute to Kevin Heffernan's vision of the game, which is presumably what Gavin meant after the 2013 final win when he said that "we did it the right way". They were proud of their philosophy of the game and there was no reason at that stage to imagine they might change.

Then came the defeat in 2014 and a subtle recalibration of their alignment which has had a huge impact on the game. I recall seeing somewhere that Declan Darcy said he had the scoreline of the Dublin-Donegal semi-final on his computer and in his locker as a reminder of where they didn't want to find themselves again. It really hurt them and they were adamant they wouldn't get caught like that again. So they came back with a safety wire by creating the sweeper role, which Cian O'Sullivan played so effectively. And over the following five years that tactic and formation has become the governing trait in the game, even if teams employ an alternating rather than a designated sweeper.

To my mind, every single team is playing this way now. All systems are man-to-man plus one at the back. There is collective shadow-tackling and shepherding rather than intense ball pressure. When there is a danger, defenders do push up on their man. But teams are never rigidly man-to-man as Dublin were in 2013. A strict man-to-man system leaves you at the behest of the opposition.

If Dublin became more defensive and cautiously minded post-2014, then all other teams followed suit. And Dublin morphed seamlessly into a ball-retention team, just probing and piercing and choosing their attacking moments much more judiciously. And they did it better than anyone else.

So look at the game now. We had a riveting championship contest in Ulster last weekend. But even Donegal and Tyrone on one of the worst days Ballybofey has seen, when the pitch was like a bog and the ball was a bar of soap, both teams were able to hold onto the ball for full two-minute stretches – and then pick their moment to hit a score. Someone needs to explain that to me. How is that possible? This surely should have been a game littered with turnovers. The opportunity was there.

Thought process

But there is no intensity or pressure because the thought process has changed. Most turnovers now come from a loose pass to someone's feet or a really good interception or dispossession. That collective intensity is no longer a tactical feature. Both teams were able to cause damage with the ball in their hand. The crucial difference was that Shaun Patton gave Donegal a superior platform from his kick-out. Now, Stephen Cluxton is the best player the game has seen in the goalkeeping position. That's another reason why Dublin has won the last five All-Irelands. And his role will be crucial again this winter.

So even though most teams have followed Dublin’s lead, I’m not convinced it suits them all. Why try to replicate somebody else’s philosophy? Surely it makes more sense to think laterally and devise a game plan to take that philosophy down rather than replicate it?

You are trying to imitate another team. But they have the blueprint. And what is the thinking behind this system? The bottom line is: we've got the ball and you want it. It is conservative. It's a world removed from Jim Gavin's original vision. This is about keeping it, composure, being patient; it is Barcelona or Manchester City. We are going to move people around, look to draw them out, and when the space opens up we will attack it and try to do damage. But if it disappears, we will recycle the ball again. Because we are not bringing that ball into contact. You want us to go in there. And we are not going in there. We will keep the ball and recycle and swing it to the weak side to inject pace into the attack from a different angle. Whether that takes 15 seconds or two minutes, we don't mind.

Dublin have been literally unbeatable playing in this way. So one of the fascinations for me is to see if Dessie Farrell continues to implement this philosophy.

It has been a very difficult year for all managers around the country, but in particular for Dessie Farrell because the expectation on Dublin is immense. I remember in my first year the difficulty of pulling a group of players together, organising the team and all the logistics. And the biggest thing is getting time on the pitch. Dessie was just getting his teeth into that and the season was pulled. Then came Covid. Then a winter championship and the prospect of knock-out football. These are all freak variables. Everyone is dealing with them, but Farrell is in a different stage to, for instance, James Horan or Declan Bonner. Their players know the script. Plus, he is trying to keep an unprecedented winning streak and extend the most successful championship run in the history of the game.

Big factor

I don't think an empty Croke Park will be a big factor. You look at high level soccer and the Champions League, and the absence of a crowd doesn't affect the performance level. I think the same will be true in this championship. These guys are competitive every night at training. They don't need a crowd to get them up. There is nothing motivating them other than playing for the county. Obviously it is nice when you score a goal and the roof comes off. But Dublin have proven they don't need that.

To my mind Jack McCaffrey is a big loss. In terms of keeping the ball and waiting for the moment, he is at the top of the list. And Diarmuid Connolly: big, strong, classy, kicks a point with both feet – these departures are significant. But if any team can absorb those losses it is this Dublin team. And it is somebody else's opportunity. There is so much experience in that group.

Every team is beatable. And there is a way to beat every team, including Dublin. To my mind, the best way to beat them is not to play the same way as they play. That is slightly redundant now that Jim Gavin is gone and we don’t know just what Dessie Farrell will unwrap. Does he stay with the status quo? Or does he return to the blistering, attacking kicking game to come full circle? The first window into that will open against Westmeath.

Or does some other manager out there come up with something unforeseen – something that Dublin won’t be prepared for? If that happens, then the trajectory of the game will be on the move again.