Attack-conscious Kerry can derail slick Donegal drills

I’m expecting a close contest but I’m also expecting Kerry to win by whisker.

Some of the reasoning is to do with good luck and how fortunate Kerry were to get those two games against Mayo in the semi-finals. Eamonn Fitzmaurice must have been thrilled for a young team to pick up that sort of experience and also to be able to use most of his panel in the process.

On the other hand Dublin were incredibly naive in leaving themselves exposed at the back; Donegal dismantled them quite easily and have not benefited from the semi-finals to the same extent as Kerry.

I think both teams will go long in the early stages just to check out the opposition full-back lines. Donegal did this in 2012 and it worked well. In particular if Kerry can get an early lead it could be key because it would force Donegal to reconsider ultra-defence.

Dublin didn’t manage this in the semi-final despite being five points ahead, but Kerry are not going to go all in on attack if they take an early lead.

Donegal are very experienced and don’t panic. They also have a very disciplined game and are more about the collective. I feel though that this could also be to Kerry’s advantage.

The team

operate that bit more off the cuff than Donegal and will have the freedom to play it as they see it. By introducing Stephen O’Brien Fitzmaurice is making a statement, given that O’Brien isn’t as used to the sort of tracking-back duties that Michael Geaney brought to the team. But he offers more of an offensive threat.

They must not repeat Dublin’s mistake of forcing it by trying to run through the middle. I’m expecting the kick pass to be employed far more than the hand pass because accurate kick passing is a vital ingredient in spreading the play wide and moving it quickly from defence to attack, which will be a vital part of breaking down the Donegal cover.

Jim McGuinness's team will be happy enough to see Kieran Donaghy starting. But I think they're making a mistake if they believe Kerry are simply going to go route one to the edge of the square and play into the hands of the McGees.

It will be an option definitely but Kerry have the kick passers to exploit miss-matches or space whenever the early ball is on and not as a repetitive plan. On form, Donaghy’s ability to win ball and off-load is a distinct threat and can benefit not just James O’Donoghue, who Donegal will try and lock up for the match, but also Paul Geaney, who’s also a great finisher.

One strength of the Donegal system is that new players slot into it so seamlessly: Odhrán MacNiallais and Ryan McHugh are fine examples. McHugh is elusive and difficult to pick up but again Kerry will learn from Dublin and I believe that Paul Murphy is ideally equipped to do a tight-marking job.

Donegal's biggest dilemma is the familiar one of how to use the best player on the pitch, Michael Murphy. Kerry will be very pleased if he has to spend as much time in the middle as he has been doing this season. On the inside he's more dangerous, as Kerry don't have a big, high-fielding full back.

I think Kerry may have to consider dropping Anthony Maher back to provide cover in front of goal. But either way, Aidan O'Mahony will not be left to deal with Murphy alone.

The big question for Kerry is whether a young, inexperienced side can last the pace and intensity of Donegal's games. I think they can by substituting at least half of the forwards to compensate for the twin physical demands of pressurising Donegal and tracking back to keep up with the breaks of Karl Lacey, Anthony Thompson and Frank McGlynn.

If Kerry have kept it tight up until the last quarter or so, the likes of Declan O’Sullivan and Bryan Sheehan will be on the field with a lot of experience and composure.

Above all I believe that by being even fractionally more attack conscious Kerry can exploit the accuracy of their kicking to take more scores. And even though they are a young team, they’re not under the same pressure that Dublin were and will have the composure to see this out.