After all the excitement in the run-up to the quarter-finals, there’s a different feel about the semi-finals. Those games clarified a few things and changed the picture. Before the quarter-finals weekend, more or less everyone was saying that any one of six teams could win the All-Ireland. I think that number is probably down to two now – Kerry and Donegal.
Without dismissing Tyrone and Meath, I just think that what Donegal and Kerry produced the last day was so far clear of anything any other team has been capable of in this championship. Both teams clicked into a gear that nobody else has shown. They might not reproduce it but we know they have it. We don’t know that about Meath or Tyrone.
Let’s take the Saturday game first. The one thing that won’t be a factor here is history. The Tyrone thing doesn’t matter to the current Kerry players the way it did to our generation. I’d say if you asked Sean O’Shea about it, he’d take a look at you as if to say, “Listen now, I have enough problems of my own without worrying about the hang-ups of washed-up old Kerry players.”
He’d be 100 per cent right, too. Time moves on. Tyrone have moved on too. This is a different type of team from the ones they used to produce. Their personalities are different. One the one hand, they’re not as cynical or as cute with the dark arts. On the other, they’re not as free-flowing or as filled with quality either.
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If they’re going to beat Kerry, they have to dominate midfield. They have Brian Kennedy and Conn Kilpatrick in there and not only are they huge men but they aren’t one bit shy about using their size. With the way the game is now around the kick-outs, those two should be an incredible weapon for Tyrone.
But Armagh had plenty of big men around the middle too. Mark O’Shea and Sean O’Brian came of age for Kerry the last day and Joe O’Connor put in one of those games he’s been putting in all year.
That’s what I mean about the quarter-finals changing the picture. Before that, I would have been worried about how the Kerry midfield would cope against the likes of Niall Grimley, Ben Crealey and Rian O’Neill. They’ve shown now they can hold their own. It doesn’t mean they’ll be able to do it again against Kennedy and Kilpatrick but they can break even at least.
That might be all they need to do. Because when I look around the rest of the pitch, I think Kerry can dominate this game physically in the same way they did two years ago. Go through Tyrone’s best forwards – the two Canavans, Darren McCurry, young McElholm who came off the bench the last day. What’s the common factor? They’re all small men.
I know they won’t all be on the pitch at the same time and that Tyrone have the likes of Peter Harte and Mattie Donnelly to bulk out the forward line. But when it comes right down to it, I think size is going to matter here.
If Kerry do their job out the field, Tyrone have no outlet that they can pump the ball up to and expect him to win it by himself. They don’t have a David Clifford or a Michael Murphy. They don’t have a Seánie Shea or an Oisin Gallen. You’d take Darragh Canavan and Darren McCurry ahead of most players in the country in terms of skill on the ball. But they have to get on the ball first.
Add it all up and I expect Kerry to have enough. Tyrone needed two-pointers to stay in touch with Dublin in the first half the last day – are they really going to be able to keep that sort of accuracy going from distance? They haven’t been scoring goals and Kerry haven’t been conceding them. Is that going to change here? I make Kery strong enough favourites.
I make Donegal even stronger ones, in all honesty. It’s funny, the previews to all of Meath’s games this year probably said the same sort of thing. Fair play to them, they’re a team on the up, Robbie Brennan has got a great tune out of them – but they won’t be winning this. And still they went out and beat Dublin, Kerry, Cork and Galway.
So will we learn our lesson? Sure, why start now?
There’s a hint of the Cork v Dublin hurling semi-final about this. Donegal won’t be running in seven goals but they will be every bit as relentless in wearing Meath down. Unless Meath have some sort of magic potion, I expect it will all just be too much for them.
What really struck me about Donegal against Monaghan was how much they looked to be enjoying Croke Park. You could see in that second half that they were at home there, that it was the place they had been aiming to get to all year. This was the weekend they had circled on the calendar – we’re going to be there, boys, and we’re going to make mincemeat out of whoever is waiting for us.
On the flipside, Meath came to Croke Park the last day looking to right a wrong. They felt they had left the Leinster final behind them by coughing up so many goals to Louth so they were coming back to Croke Park to make amends. And there’s nothing wrong with that – but it tells you they’re a team at a different stage in their journey than Donegal are.
Meath have some great players and you go through some of their lesser known names and they can seriously play ball. Jordan Morris is obviously their go-to player but the likes of Ciaran Cualfield and Ruairi Kinsella and Matthew Costello have really jumped out this season. I just think Donegal are operating at a level above.
They’ll be looking to feast on Morris in particular. That lovely dummy bounce he has might get him past the odd defender against Donegal but it won’t get him through on goal. Beat the first man and there’ll be another right there waiting. Meath will be full of energy and we know they don’t lack courage. But Donegal didn’t come all this way to slip up against a Division Two team.
I expect Donegal to do a professional job here and that they’ll go through along with Kerry.
But I’ve been wrong before.
