After the staggering success of his team last Saturday, Dublin hurling manager Niall Ó Ceallacháin referred to the importance of backing up the defeat of Limerick.
“I totally understand what we have achieved but this will be long forgotten as well if we don’t follow through in two weeks’ time,” he said.
In fact, the opposite is probably the case. The less his team achieve in the future, the more memorable the shock will become.
For a team like Limerick - All-Irelands champions in four of the last five years - to fall to opponents like Dublin would be all the more remarkable if it turned out to be an inexplicable bolt from the blue with no longer-term implications.
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Was Dublin’s shock win over Limerick a bolt from the blue or can lightning strike twice?
There has understandably been speculation about how the result compared to previous shock outcomes in the hurling championship. The question is as intangible as those perennially – it almost seems – pitched after Munster finals: the best ever?
Just as there are few reliable methods of assessing matches that happened decades ago – without context, old footage can be as vibrant as a laboratory specimen – trying to work out what caused the biggest shock can lack useful reference points.
How accurately can you assess a contemporary mood, years later?
One candidate that quickly surfaced was Antrim’s defeat of Offaly in the 1989 All-Ireland semi-final. As was pointed out by Paul Fitzpatrick in The Irish Times last Monday, the context of that result was that the Ulster champions had already beaten Offaly twice in that year’s league, relegating them after the second meeting.
It had historic significance because Antrim were reaching an All-Ireland final for the first time in 46 years. It stands as their only All-Ireland appearance in the last 82 seasons.
Were Dublin to beat Cork and reach their first All-Ireland senior hurling final since 1961, that would have obvious historic resonance. But the bookies, clear-eyed and unsentimental, will pay you 11 to 2 for backing that outcome.
That Limerick were beaten was probably not the biggest turn-up. There had been plenty of queries as to where they stood, having been beaten twice in Munster, admittedly once on penalties. But for Dublin to administer the coup was unforeseen by nearly everyone.
The improbability intensified with captain Chris Crummey’s dismissal in the 15th minute. Already, he had been making an impact on the match and had scored a point. But so had his team. They won an early ruck in front of Hill 16 and had tussled their way to a narrow 0-5 to 0-7 deficit by the time of the red card – an uncomplicated decision for referee Liam Gordon after the player had visibly raised his elbow at Gearóid Hegarty.
There has been plenty of academic focus on the psychological aspect of red cards in sport. The Ringelmann effect suggests that individual effort decreases as the size of the group performing a task increases, which can impact on the team with the numerical advantage.
Conversely, teams typically describe how members raise their work rate to compensate for losing a player.
In 1996, Limerick lost a match at Croke Park to 14 men after Wexford’s Eamonn Scallan was sent off just before half-time. Manager Liam Griffin explained how they had coped.
“We had planned for it if a man was off. If we had an extra man. If they had an extra man. We wrote it and rewrote it. What we would do if a back was sent off, if a midfielder was sent off, if a forward was sent off. We wrote it down and then wrote it again.”
Such contingency planning, it is argued, has been rendered redundant by the modern game. Last April, Clare overhauled a nine-point deficit after Cork lost Shane Barrett for the last 10 minutes.
Yet, as Ó Ceallacháin said of the response afterwards, having detailed his reorganisation: “It’s not tactical. What it comes down to is the boys inside, how deep they dug ...”
Dublin had been such long odds for the match, their prospects so disregarded, that this may have functioned as a liberation. Nobody was expecting them to win and unless they were annihilated, there would likely be little blame in defeat: a free shot. That feeling presumably intensified when they lost a key player.
So, it played out. Broadcast commentary and conversation within Croke Park at half-time made reference to Dublin’s brave performance, while accepting that their opponents would in all likelihood run out winners.
According to Christy O’Connor in the Irish Examiner, some bookies were still quoting them as odds-on when two points down with minutes to go.
As Limerick manager John Kiely pointed out afterwards, the quarter-final was more about Dublin than his team. Start with the reaction to being two points down. Seán Currie hit a free and one from play within the following four minutes to level the match.
[ Dublin’s win over Limerick may be the greatest upset in championship historyOpens in new window ]
Kiely lamented his team’s lack of energy and that was apparent. One unusual aspect was how, in the second quarter, when they were coming to terms with their handicap, Dublin still launched fast-paced, running attacks. And even when fouled, they didn’t look for the free but persevered on advantage, as with Ronan Hayes’s point in the 29th minute when being pulled over by Barry Nash.
Even with a three-point lead at the break, Dublin’s eventual eclipse was considered a matter of time.
A crucial tactical switch was the introduction of John Hetherton at half-time. As Dublin naturally began to run out of steam in the second half, the option of hitting long ball into the combative St Vincent’s player became an outlet rather than constantly running the ball forward.
His input included scoring a goal and breaking a high ball to assist Cian O’Sullivan for the second within 34 seconds. RTÉ commentator Darragh Maloney exclaimed: “What is happening here?”
He wasn’t the only one saying it.
