Darragh Ó Sé: Anything can happen in an All-Ireland semi-final, but I don’t see Derry or Monaghan winning

Given what’s at stake and the prize still on offer, it’s not unreasonable to expect two proper football contests in Croke Park this weekend. Until you start thinking them over and talking them through, and soon realise that when it comes down to it, you’d expect Kerry and Dublin to win.

Of course no team is unbeatable at any stage of the championship, least of all in an All-Ireland semi-final. We’ve witnessed some surprises at this stage over the years, but still, if you’re asking me whether I see Derry or Monaghan winning, then the answer is no.

The only thing that matters in a semi-final is getting over the line first, and no two teams are better versed in that exercise than Kerry and Dublin. Kerry have a good record in semi-finals because they always come in with that matter-of-fact approach. It’s there to be won, no hype and no fanfare, and Jack O’Connor has already made clear that is his approach too.

In my experience playing in semi-finals with Kerry, the attitude among the players is win it pretty or win it ugly. It doesn’t matter. Like Kilkenny’s approach in hurling, the players know perfectly well there are no medals handed out. It’s all for nowt if you don’t win the bloody thing.

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Kerry and Derry certainly appears the more attractive game insofar as it looks to be the tighter contest. That’s not saying it’s going to be attractive to watch. We can certainly expect a lot of bodies behind the ball for a lot of the game, but again it’s difficult – if not impossible – to see how Derry are going to win.

To me Derry are looking slightly fresher than last year, when they were on virgin territory really, getting to the All-Ireland semi-final. Winning that Ulster title last year might have been sufficient, but it won’t feel that way this year.

They’ll also feel they are on the cusp of something big here, having dealt with everything that was put in front of them so far. Their form has been steady, without being spectacular, and they’re exactly where they want to be.

If you look under the bonnet, there’s no shortage of experience there, Chrissy McKaigue and Gareth McKinless in defence, Conor Glass and Brendan Rogers around midfield, Shane McGuigan is obviously a classy forward. You could argue they might even be better than Kerry defensively, but can they match the Kerry forwards?

They’ll also still be smarting at the way they were torn apart by Galway at this stage last year. Other than that day, it would have been a spectacular year for them. I can imagine that being a sore one for them.

Since Rory Gallagher’s departure, that changing of the guard doesn’t seem to have broken their stride at all. If anything, it’s galvanised them a bit, they’ve kicked on from it. Their goals have been neatly shifting along the way, they’re still very focused and tuned in, and their chance now is of making an All-Ireland final. There’s a lot of confidence in this Derry team too, the belief they can actually do this.

We saw Cork try to run the ball a lot against Derry, and repeatedly get bottled up. Derry don’t mind that style of play at all, are happy to keep bodies back, and that makes them difficult to play against. They are also very well conditioned.

Basically, we know exactly how Derry will play. They don’t tend to change their style from game to game. I expect they will go very defensive, and that could make for some dour viewing.

But Kerry have played against teams like this before. Derry certainly aren’t unique in that way. It’s part of the game now, a prerequisite that you need to be ready for. Kerry won’t mind going into a battle like that, getting down and dirty.

There are no concessions here, and Kerry have had enough kicks in the backside in the last few years, so whatever they will be, they won’t be complacent.

Kerry will just want to stick with their kicking game, same as they did against Tyrone. They will get chances, through David Clifford and Seánie O’Shea obviously, but they also got some good return from the bench the last day as well, through the likes of Tony Brosnan and Stephen O’Brien. They will stretch Derry, who will have to come out and play at some point. It’s just a matter of how much Kerry will stretch them by the end.

For me Saturday’s semi-final between Dublin and Monaghan is the more foregone conclusion, one that could get properly one-sided. Dublin just have too much strength and depth right now. We saw how ruthless they were in the second half against Mayo – Ciarán Kilkenny, Jack McCaffrey and Dean Rock all coming off the bench to make telling impacts as well.

Con O’Callaghan looks to be coming into a bit more form, Paul Mannion already has, and Colm Basquel and Cormac Costello are on fire. It’s an embarrassment of talent really, what they can pull from, and Dessie Farrell can afford to mix things up again. That’s a nice spot to be in for an All-Ireland semi-final.

Monaghan have Conor McManus to come off the bench, but it’s an older McManus now. Overall I can’t see Monaghan keeping the tide out for very long.

Dublin played some total football against Mayo, scoring 2-14 from play, and holding Mayo to 0-11. Like Kerry, they’ll also be cautious, maybe even a little understated, with a view to getting over the line, nothing more. Keep some powder dry, make sure no one gets sent off or gets injured. The result is paramount.

[ Jim McGuinness: Kerry could dominate for years ]

Having said all that, I think we’ll see more realistic displays of form, considering in the quarter-finals Tyrone and Mayo were both impacted by having three games on the bounce. It happens in the championship sometimes that you get to the semi-finals and those still standing might not be the best four teams left in it.

By Sunday evening, though, we’ll certainly be down to the best two.