Jim McGuinness: Mayo are where Dublin were in 2014 and it’s time to face the hard facts

There is nothing like a defeat to sharpen the mind.

Dublin found themselves at a crossroads last year following their All-Ireland semi-final loss to Kerry.

It left them with plenty to ponder during the off-season. It was a big moment for Dessie Farrell and his team because for me it seemed the choice was, ‘Do we want to allow this young vibrant Kerry team to become a runaway train or do we in fact double down and fight to regain our rightful place at the top table?’

Sunday’s win over Mayo felt like the coming together of the manager’s vision, which had been cultivated in those weeks after losing in 2022.

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Last winter, Farrell didn’t opt to go with youth but rather he focused on those who had previously brought great success to the county. He retained the talent already in the squad and had conversations with the likes of Stephen Cluxton, Jack McCaffrey and Paul Mannion. He brought in Pat Gilroy, too.

The last piece of the jigsaw was to see if players like Cormac Costello, Seán Bugler, Colm Basquel and Eoin Murchan could step up another level. All in all, Farrell got significant business done over the winter and Sunday’s victory felt like a product of that work.

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The language and imagery ahead of Sunday’s quarter-final between Dublin and Mayo was more akin to a boxing match than a football match – two heavyweights primed for battle again.

In an ESPN article about the trilogy between Ali and Frazier, Mike Sielsky wrote: “In the ring, Joe Frazier was a bull who didn’t need a red cape. Provocation or prodding wasn’t necessary for him to come charging after the man in front of him, his head down, his fists acting as sharp horns and inflicting similar damage.

“It was that relentlessness – the near-total abandonment of duck-and-cover, the philosophy that one must absorb punishment before one can properly distribute it – that defined Frazier’s boxing career and has defined his life.”

That quote kind of sums up the rivalry between Mayo and Dublin. Frazier’s approach to Ali in their three fights could easily be used to mirror Mayo-Dublin battles over the last decade. And it’s a narrative both teams are happy to go along with, I feel.

Very often you’ll hear the Dubs saying, ‘We know what’s coming with Mayo, it’s going to be a battle, they never give up, it always goes down to the wire.’

And at half-time on Sunday that narrative remained in play. Mayo, with 55 per cent possession, probably had the better of the first half. They led 0-8 to 1-3 after 25 minutes but still found themselves a point down at half-time, 1-6 to 0-8.

Why, despite the stats showing a lot of positives for Mayo, were they one adrift at the break? For me the answer is quite simple – the rules of engagement were skewed.

They were skewed largely because of Mayo’s tactical approach – not that you will hear many Dubs shouting that out loudly, because Dublin don’t want the cat to be let out of the bag.

You have take a step back a little to understand this. Dublin in 2013 were what Mayo are trying to be now, a swashbuckling team that loved to kick the ball and were absolutely man-to-man at the back.

But what happened in the 2014 semi-final made Dublin rethink. In Donegal, we knew from what Dublin were saying back then that they were absolutely wedded to that style of play, it was their identity and it was how they believed in playing.

And I believe Mayo are now in that same boat. The difference is Dublin adapted, in 2015 they went with a sweeper and they won the next six All-Irelands.

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Kerry have done the same, there was a lengthy segment of analysis on television at the weekend about how well Kerry are defending – they are making defending sexy now!

Since the 2013 All-Ireland final, Dublin and Mayo have met 10 times in the championship – with Mayo winning just one of those encounters, while there were a couple of draws too. Across those series of matches Dublin scored 18 goals while Mayo scored six. Mayo have not scored a goal in any of their last three championship meetings with Dublin.

Dublin realise, because of Mayo’s approach, the game is rigged in their favour. People talk about heavyweight bouts and rolling with the punches, but the fact is Dublin understand that over the course of 70 minutes against Mayo goalscoring opportunities are going to appear.

Mayo played well in the first half on Sunday but then David Byrne kicked a very simple ball inside to where two Mayo defenders and two Dublin forwards were isolated in one v one matchup scenarios. It ended with Basquel scoring a goal.

Immediately after the break, in what was a critical stage of the game, John Small gave the ball to Basquel and the Ballyboden player was able to take possession down the right flank in a one v one situation, cut inside and kick the ball over the bar. He was literally left one v one for 12 seconds, it must have felt like all his birthdays had come at once. It was a similar situation for Dublin’s second goal. In these key moments, Mayo had no cover.

After 2014, Dublin put a system in place to take back control. Mayo haven’t won an All-Ireland since 1951 yet they are sticking to this belief system, which has repeatedly shown to only take them so far.

The irony on Sunday was that while Mayo stuck to their guns the whole way through, by the 50th minute Dublin were no longer going with a plus one, instead they were defending with 12-13 bodies behind the ball in a zonal structure. They were saying, ‘We are happy with what we have and we are going to hold that.’

Mayo were sticking to their principles, sticking to their man-to-man system, meanwhile McCaffrey was scuttling through the heart of their defence. It’s all very noble what they are trying to do, but the reality is they are not good enough to play that way.

The proof is in the fact they have not yet got over the line. A rivalry should be competitive in terms of results. Frazier beats Ali, Ali beats Frazier. It can’t be a rivalry when it’s one-sided.

Another big question I feel needs to be answered is what happened to the tactics Mayo implemented during the National League when Conor Loftus was used as a sweeper.

After the league final, you were thinking: Mayo have Aidan O’Shea as a focal point up front, Tommy Conroy and Ryan O’Donoghue playing off him, the team has a brilliant athletic profile and crucially they now also have a defensive structure that will maybe stop the chaos. Perhaps it actually could be their year.

But on Sunday evening their dreams were in tatters again. No team has been successful since 2013 with the approach Mayo continue to implement. The reality is you can’t go toe to toe with the best players in the country for 70 minutes, without any cover, and expect not to concede a goal.

For more than a decade now there has been huge potential in Mayo but that potential has never been fully realised. It has been realised to the extent where they have become a high-performing team consistently competing with the top sides in the country.

But there is a difference between that and being a winning team. Dublin understood the difference in 2014. And Kerry understood it last year when they did whatever they had to do to win the All-Ireland.

The latest annual postmortem has begun in Mayo. A bit like Dessie Farrell last year, they are at a crossroads now and decisions the management make during the off-season will determine if Mayo are to continue along the same endless road again in 2024.