Jim McGuinness: Kerry’s obligation to win countered by Galway’s surging confidence

Over the last few weeks, the same question has popped up over and over. Have Galway any chance?

It’s a reasonable question to ask after Kerry delivering through a cauldron of pressure – much of it created by their own supporters – against Dublin.

They broke through a glass ceiling which has thickened since 2014. The simplistic view was that the baton had been passed from one superpower to the other. And I do share the sense that this All-Ireland final is Kerry’s to lose. But that doesn’t mean it cannot be lost. Or, from Galway’s world view, that it cannot be won. It can.

There is no doubt Kerry will be a very tough nut to crack. Their semi-final win will live long in the memory because of its extraordinary climax. But there are a few key things to consider now. An All-Ireland final brings a psychological pressure, in this instance on Kerry more so than Galway.

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The next factor is the systems approach. Both sides have made huge advancements in their defensive systems. And the third thing is the aggressive edge Kerry brought to the Dublin game.

They behaved like the underdog, with the accompanying pain and hurt. They looked like men on a mission. And I feel they will carry all of that – eight years since their last All-Ireland; the golden generation – into Sunday’s final. Galway will have to match that edge. If they do, we could be in for fireworks.

Another question I asked myself: who will be looking forward to this game most? No doubt, Kerry will be looking forward to it. But Galway came through the specific defensive challenges of Armagh and Derry. And they will be looking forward to a little more space against Kerry, with more man-to-man marking and room to play.

The focus will return to David Clifford and Seán O’Shea – and in particular the potential match-up of Seán Kelly on Clifford.

However, I think Paudie Clifford reflects the new Kerry in attitude and work rate and speed, all qualities that Jack O’Connor has targeted. They have never lacked football ability. This is about industry. Gavin White is a doubt and word is he will play but if his explosiveness is hampered, it is a serious blow to them. He adds so much to their attack but is also a terrific scramble defender on those transitional moments.

Kerry are happy to kick the ball and they have demonstrated this with an impressive variety of kick passes – long, diagonal, the dink ball – and with their patented third-man runner coming at speed off the shoulder.

Derry declined to test the Galway full-back line after their mishaps against Armagh. I am fairly certain that Kerry will revisit the scene of those crimes to see what they can find. And it is what they like to do anyway. They like to kick the ball. And historically, they like to try and hammer their advantage home early in All-Irelands when they are hot favourites.

Their high-intensity composure in the final third against Dublin caught my eye. Their forwards have great agility and can drop the shoulder and switch direction and accelerate with a low centre of gravity. And they can kick with both feet.

Also, they can deliver the killer blow with a long ball inside. The Dubs struggled to get hands on them at times. Still, the flow of scores did slow as the game went on.

And for me, this is the single biggest task for Pádraic Joyce and Galway to get right on Sunday. Can they find that recipe that Dublin did in the second half to slow and disrupt that flow of Kerry scores and attacks?

How would you approach this game if you were in Pádraic’s shoes?

I feel Galway need to have a really clear plan for each third of the pitch.

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The first third incorporates the Kerry kick-outs. All Galway need to do is to look at the difference between how they went after the kick-out in the first and second halves against Derry.

After half-time they pushed up, eliminated the short options and closed Derry down. And it was the winning of the game. This will be crucial. They need to be brave and force Kerry to kick long and trust their midfield power. Because they may not have the option of waiting for the second half here. I would make this Option A and go for it from the first kick-out.

Then the middle section of the pitch: that crowded middle third where much of the match will be played. I think both teams have defended this area with authority and intent. Kerry have shown the hunger and aggression to hunt for turnovers. But so too have Galway.

I think pure want will be crucial in turning the game one way or the other. You need deep fitness levels to execute this for 70-plus minutes. And extreme mental toughness – which translates as discipline on the pitch. Both sides have it in them to work an advantage here.

Finally, the defensive third. How do you set up against Kerry defensively. How do you stop that scoring machine? I would go for a multi-layered approach. By that, I mean it is not about a man-to-man defensive system with a plus one. Nor is it not about a zonal approach. It is about a combination.

Say Kelly picks up Clifford. And John Daly marks Seán O’Shea. Well, I would look for Patrick Kelly and Johnny Heaney, the Galway wing forwards, to drop back and shadow those two Kerry dangermen. So they are doubling up and cutting off the passing lanes.

Then, you have straight match-ups elsewhere. Liam Silke may take Paudie Clifford, Dylan McHugh mark Stephen O’Brien, Kieran Molloy on Dara Moynihan and Jack Glynn on Paul Geaney.

And after that, Matthew Tierney and Shane Walsh should sit in the pockets and cover any areas of space within that defensive structure. Along with Paul Conroy and Cillian McDaid they become four zonal players, filling the gaps. And I would leave Rob Finnerty and Damien Comer up the field. That would force at least two and probably three Kerry players back.

And for Galway, it is not just about defending but pushing the Kerry attack out to the sidelines and target the ball carriers who are not as comfortable as their marquee players, forcing turnovers and looking for the transition and getting that ball down to their danger men. A busy, proactive defence. With a lot of responsibility for all players. I feel that must be their approach. Bold and hungry.

And Galway will have the option of going long as well. I think they should, with Comer and Finnerty and Walsh inside. Dublin did not test Kerry enough in this regard – because Con O’Callaghan wasn’t there.

But Galway have ball winners. Look for that one v one over the sweeper from outside the 45. Also, Galway against Derry rotated the midfielders into the full-forward line all the time. But they didn’t kick it in because the picture did not materialise. It will do against Kerry.

Finnerty is crucial here. Because there will be so many eyes on the other two guys. I feel he has had an excellent championship but was quiet against Derry and it is vital that he slips back into that form. Often, it is the players around the edges who can win these huge days.

If all of these things fall into place, then this All-Ireland final could be a lot tighter than people predict. You haven’t won the All-Ireland until you have won it. Kerry are still a very young team under an intense spotlight. Getting over the line is hard. They must get over it.

The same is true for Galway. But the country expects nothing from them! And the invaluable aspect is Joyce’s deep, deep confidence. You can imagine what he is saying to those guys. He expects to win. He said it three years ago! And exudes a natural confidence.

So Kerry’s obligation to win and Galway’s surging confidence may well collide. And hopefully that will take the All-Ireland final into somewhere uncharted and unexpected.