Derry’s practised system gives them the slightest of edges against Galway

All-Ireland SFC semi-final: Derry v Galway, Croke Park, Saturday, 5.30pm — Live on RTÉ 2 and Sky Sports Arena. The Irish Times liveblog will begin at 5pm.

Two things occur about Saturday’s All-Ireland semi-final: firstly, Galway have won both the previous meetings with Derry at this stage of the competition and both years ended up as All-Ireland champions.

Secondly, the progress of the season to date has forced on to observers the realisation that Sam Maguire may not be guaranteed to end up with whoever wins Sunday’s Dublin-Kerry contest.

On the merits of the match, it’s a fascinating fixture. The quarter-final victories will have stood to the teams and both are provincial champions, so haven’t had to face defeat along the way. They have been to extra time and in Galway’s case a penalty shoot-out, which means that both are also tempered by having to survive intense competition.

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Derry’s first Ulster title in 24 years fuelled a lot of theorising about how fit their game would be for Croke Park. Quarter-final opponents Clare didn’t provide a rigorous test but on the basis of what we saw, the Ulster champions are comfortable covering the ground at headquarters.

The levels of fitness and pace that Rory Gallagher has drilled into them proved as telling on Jones’s Road as they had in Clones.

There were times when covering defenders were able to out-run the ball after counter-attacks were turned over and possession lost. It’s likely however that such recovery strategies are no longer possible at this stage of championship.

Galway’s kick-passing will make any turnovers extremely perilous but Derry are unlikely to play risk-reward football to those extremes. Unsurprisingly for a Rory Gallagher team, they are very structured and although heavily defensive in winning Ulster, they fired in five goals against Clare.

We can expect more caution this weekend. Galway have improved their defence noticeably but have spoiled the effect by leaking avoidable goals — buying an expensive fire alarm and barbecuing in the sittingroom.

[ Rory Gallagher rubbishes idea that Derry struggle for scores after five-goal rout of Clare ]

The goals that forced extra time for Armagh were nearly calamitous but for Cillian McDaid’s tour de force in extra time.

Manager Pádraic Joyce has been careful to make them more effective at the back and comfortable exiting in possession without suppressing the county’s traditional strengths of forward play.

Derry haven’t had to cope with a full forward line like Rob Finnerty, Damien Comer and Shane Walsh, who averaged nearly 0-4 from play in the All-Ireland quarter-final and Connacht final.

They do have terrific defenders, specifically Chrissy McKaigue, a supreme man marker, Brendan Rogers, tight enough to take care of Michael Murphy in the Ulster final and sufficiently versatile to be sent to centrefield as required and former prodigy Gareth McKinless.

[ Jim McGuinness: Galway are back as an All-Ireland calibre football force ]

Galway bring plenty elsewhere but it’s hard to shut out the late concession of scores in their matches against Mayo, Roscommon and Armagh. They were also anxiously and unavailingly chasing the equaliser at the end of extra time in the quarter-final before Cillian McDaid fired a brilliant but low percentage point to save the day.

This match is genuinely 50-50. It may turn out to be a landslide but if so, the pointers aren’t conspicuous.

Here’s why Derry get a tentative vote. Their system is ingrained at this stage and has been adapted to meet the player availability whereas Galway are still test driving theirs to the extent that they are losing concentration at the end of matches and becoming too anxious about the outcome rather than instinctively following the process.

[ Galway’s Seán Kelly cleared to play All-Ireland semi-final following appeal ]

Derry aren’t simply dependent on that, though. The salutary lessons of losing to Donegal last year despite an abundance of possession in the closing minutes that they were simply unable to turn into a scoring opportunity, have been well learned.

Part of what they do is to engage defenders to create space for backs and centrefield to exploit for scoring purposes. Conor Glass at centrefield has had an immense season, his movement — sharpened by time in the AFL — has really punched holes in opposition cover and it will be interesting to see if fellow Aussie rules alumnus McDaid gets the task of stalking him.

Then they also have Benny Heron and especially, Shane McGuigan in exceptional form.

Their fitness, sky-high morale and quality combine to give them a slight edge against a Galway side that has been just a little too hesitant at critical times.

Verdict: Derry