Analysis: WHOEVER WINS this will be a contender and pretty certain to be in an All-Ireland final and the main obstacle to Kilkenny's three-in-a-row.

Ultimately the greater need to win is Cork's. Tipperary can bounce back if they lose but I don't see Cork in their current shape recovering from defeat. I think if a defence with a lot of experience and, in particular, a half-back line that has been seen as the best in the business is broken by an inexperienced team like Tipperary, Cork won't recover.

This is a very close call but I'm taking Cork for three reasons. I think their new-look attack will get the scores if they get the supply, that their half backs can provide that supply and that the venue will work in their favour - not just on the basis of the record there but because it could be the last hurrah for a number of the current team.

For Cork to win their half backs will need to take a firm grip on the match and the resulting supply will give their forwards every chance. They can do that because, even if the Tipp half forwards have talent and Séamus Callinan has really developed and deserves his promotion, the Cork half backs have greater ball-winning ability.

Paudie O'Sullivan, making his debut at corner forward, is really dangerous. They didn't use him until the National League semi-final. They could have played him in all of the matches but were confident enough to hold him back. He's a typical Cork corner forward. When he gets a supply low to the ground, he'll turn his man and head for goal.

O'Sullivan was very impressive against Galway and full forward Pa Cronin has a season under his belt although he is better suited to the wing. Kevin Canty has played very well in challenges, especially against Waterford's Ken McGrath.

For Tipp, Larry Corbett and Eoin Kelly are in great form but Eoin has always had a tough time on Brian Murphy.

In relation to the Páirc, I remember in 1991 it was certainly in the Tipp minds that we could be the team to break that record of not having beaten Cork there since the 1922 championship and that does create a little bit of pressure. Ultimately we were capable of beating that Cork team - and a week later we proved it - but we didn't do it in Páirc Uí Chaoimh. In fact we were lucky to get a draw.

It's hard not to have it at the back of your mind.

The interesting thing is that Cork may not be as conscious of it as Tipp - I've no proof of that but in the past the venue has always seemed to work in Cork's favour.

It's also Cork's first big outing there since the problems of earlier this year. The strike this year wasn't as popular as the previous one and there's a sense that they have to go out and perform down there.

If Tipp win it is likely to mean the Cork sector one to nine has come unstuck and that will mean that as well as the new batch in attack, fresh faces will be needed in defence and that's not a rebuilding job that can be undertaken in a few weeks.

Finally, for all that he contributed to Waterford over the years, it wasn't too much of a surprise Justin McCarthy's reign as manager came to an end. They were very poor last Sunday and the attitude wasn't good.

There were obviously underlying issues between team and manager. That showed against Clare because Waterford shouldn't be as bad as they looked. It's a long time since you saw their supporters leaving with 10 minutes to go. There was no work ethic whatsoever and it's clear now why there wasn't. There might be a chance the problems will be solved but it's also a risk. Comparisons have been drawn with Offaly 10 years ago but it's not a guaranteed fix and those players were both very experienced and All-Ireland winners already.

If you go back to the Tipp experience when the players were instrumental in changing the manager, Michael Doyle, in 2003 it placed a burden on all of those players and was something they ultimately regretted. They weren't able to deal with the pressure it created. This is a high-stakes move.

The Waterford players have transferred the pressure to themselves and now they, rather than the new management, will have to front up.